Lasner Interview with Dan Young about Woodbury/WE

just listened to Dan Young again... if Dan said it, then it must be true! From his most optimistic point of view, TIC is still in wait & see mode... I agree the next few weeks are key...!
 
I'm listening to Dan's interview again, and all the news of unemployment this morning, the market is tanking & hearing all the stories of all the guys at my church who are still out of work...

I really love how Dan emphasizes, how you can get a new construction for ONLY $300,000, like $300,000 is so cheap!

I still remember when $300,000 would get you a nice Belmont Shore house by the beach in Long Beach...

Indeed how partakers both buyers & sellers of the great housing bubble can throw hundred of thousands dollars around like toilet paper...

here I am trying to save every penny by printing our own birthday banner for my son's party this weekend... & here I have to hear Dan describe $300,000 like $300
 
RC... don't feel too bad... I hear your pain.

Like me, you aren't lucky enough to have FCB relatives to ease your housing burden... but you also sound ambitious and hard-working and that will pay off. In 10 years... you may also think $300k is cheap.
 
thanks for responding IHO! BTW did you get my PM?

no matter how I slice it, $300,000 is a chunk of change for our household...

At 6% 30-Year fixed it comes to $1,798.65... now I know for some that is a car payment but for us, a half time, single income earner that is a hefty chunk of change...

with all these 2010 Collection buyers now on the boards... what happened to all the perma-bears!? It takes me a weekend to decompress from the kool-aid that apparently is flowing again...

I like one of IR's sources for Eye H Bee news...

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

that brings back the perspective from the 10,000 foot view; I know Irvine is special and ALL RE rules don't apply to Irvine...
 
[quote author="roundcorners"]thanks for responding IHO! BTW did you get my PM?

no matter how I slice it, $300,000 is a chunk of change for our household...

At 6% 30-Year fixed it comes to $1,798.65... now I know for some that is a car payment but for us, a half time, single income earner that is a hefty chunk of change...

with all these 2010 Collection buyers now on the boards... what happened to all the perma-bears!? It takes me a weekend to decompress from the kool-aid that apparently is flowing again...

I like one of IR's sources for Eye H Bee news...

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

that brings back the perspective from the 10,000 foot view; I know Irvine is special and ALL RE rules don't apply to Irvine...[/quote]

Nice review of all the reasons not to buy yet.

I find Irvine's RE market very frustrating. We have not seen the price capitulation like some other OC cities or especially the Inland Empire.

We are moving sideways in Irvine RE and I am not confident when we will seem more downward pressure. The main problem now as has been pointed in other posts, is very low resale inventory. There will be little reason for owners to lower prices until there is more supply or drop in demand.

So the question becomes when will supply increase and demand drop? Wish I had a crystal ball on how banks will handle all this shadow inventory. Once they start unloading, watch out.

As for decreasing demand--I am hoping for the 2nd half of 2010 with a 50 basis point rise in mortgage rates and the permanent end to home buyers tax credits. The big questions is how will Obama/Congress respond if the RE market and economy takes a double dip. If the recent past is any guide, Obama will create some new housing program through the Fed or Fannie/Freddie and continue artificial price supports until he is reelected in 2012.

My worst fear as a potential buyer is that we could be seeing 3 or more years of flat to minimal price decreases in Irvine.
 
[quote author="IACRenter"] The big questions is how will Obama/Congress respond if the RE market and economy takes a double dip. If the recent past is any guide, Obama will create some new housing program through the Fed or Fannie/Freddie and continue artificial price supports until he is reelected in 2012.

[/quote]

Im curious about this as well. Most of the country seems to be fed up with the growing debt so for Obama and crew to pass another stimulus or additional housing support will probably be tough, this would be especially tough to do before the upcoming elections later this year. My guess is that at this point people realize that the govt cant just keep spending recklessly with the alternative being the the sh!it hitting the fan, but its got to hit sometime.
 
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