Economy & Finance?
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morekaos
Well-known member
I stick to my gold short, dollar long call.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stock-futures-point-to-lower-apf-309365328.html/print?x=0
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks and the dollar gained Monday as investors tried to predict when interest rates might start rising.
Prices for commodities including gold and oil tumbled as the dollar fell. Treasurys, meanwhile, rebounded from a sharp sell-off last week, pushing yields lower.
The dollar rose against other currencies ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who will speak before the Economic Club of Washington. Bernanke has insisted that the Fed plans to keep rates low for the foreseeable future, but investors believe that as the economy improves, the central bank might move to raise rates and withdraw some of its support measures. That could reverse the dollar's months-long slide and put a dent in the stock market's advance.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-falls....&asset=&cco de=
Gold prices extended their decline for a second straight session Monday as the dollar continued to rise.
Gold for February delivery slipped $26, or 2.22%, to $1,143.50 a troy ounce early Monday. Gold prices fell sharply Friday after after a much better-than-expected jobs report from the government showed employers trimming a mere 11,000 jobs in November as the unemployment rate ticked down to 10% from 10.2% in the prior month.
"We've had a substantial turn in the dollar," said Mark Hansen, director of trading at CPM Group. "People are taking a second look at their commodity exposure, especially precious metals, which have been investor favorites in the past couple of month."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stock-futures-point-to-lower-apf-309365328.html/print?x=0
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks and the dollar gained Monday as investors tried to predict when interest rates might start rising.
Prices for commodities including gold and oil tumbled as the dollar fell. Treasurys, meanwhile, rebounded from a sharp sell-off last week, pushing yields lower.
The dollar rose against other currencies ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who will speak before the Economic Club of Washington. Bernanke has insisted that the Fed plans to keep rates low for the foreseeable future, but investors believe that as the economy improves, the central bank might move to raise rates and withdraw some of its support measures. That could reverse the dollar's months-long slide and put a dent in the stock market's advance.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-falls....&asset=&cco de=
Gold prices extended their decline for a second straight session Monday as the dollar continued to rise.
Gold for February delivery slipped $26, or 2.22%, to $1,143.50 a troy ounce early Monday. Gold prices fell sharply Friday after after a much better-than-expected jobs report from the government showed employers trimming a mere 11,000 jobs in November as the unemployment rate ticked down to 10% from 10.2% in the prior month.
"We've had a substantial turn in the dollar," said Mark Hansen, director of trading at CPM Group. "People are taking a second look at their commodity exposure, especially precious metals, which have been investor favorites in the past couple of month."
morekaos
Well-known member
Couldn't have happened to a nicer set of crooks..
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/12/09/calpers-real-estate-down-49-in-year/46897/
State worker pension giant CalPERS got this ugly report from its financial consultants on its real estate bets in its most recent quarterly report ?
?Real estate losses equaled a -30.1% return during the quarter and a - 48.7% return in the year ended June 30. Ten-year profits were still +4.4%.
?CalPERS owned real estate worth $13.4 billion at June 30, a decline of $4.2 billion or 24% from the previous quarter and an $8.6 billion or 39% decline from a year ago. Real estate is 6.9% of CalPERS assets, below target allocation of 10.0%.
?Reports says: "The performance in the real estate portfolio has been deteriorated by four primary factors. First, capital markets have had significant impact on real estate property valuations. Second, the macro-economy continues to go through a downturn which has had an impact on rents. The final two factors are related to the exposure in the CalPERS real estate portfolio to non-stabilized assets with higher amounts of leverage. These final two factors have exacerbated the recent underperformance to the benchmark as non-stabilized assets provide less income to insulate valuation declines and increased leverage magnifies returns in upward and downward market cycles."
?Also, "Other factors negatively impacting returns included a relatively large proportion of non- stabilized and non-income producing properties and high levels of leverage utilized in CalPERS real estate portfolio relative to the benchmark."
?Consultants PCA expects "fundamentals, and therefore the performance, of the real estate portfolio to continue to deteriorate over the next 12 months and potentially longer. Persistently weak economic conditions, the absence of a functioning commercial mortgage origination/re-financing market and negative leverage are likely to erode income streams and total returns."
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2009/12/09/calpers-real-estate-down-49-in-year/46897/
State worker pension giant CalPERS got this ugly report from its financial consultants on its real estate bets in its most recent quarterly report ?
?Real estate losses equaled a -30.1% return during the quarter and a - 48.7% return in the year ended June 30. Ten-year profits were still +4.4%.
?CalPERS owned real estate worth $13.4 billion at June 30, a decline of $4.2 billion or 24% from the previous quarter and an $8.6 billion or 39% decline from a year ago. Real estate is 6.9% of CalPERS assets, below target allocation of 10.0%.
?Reports says: "The performance in the real estate portfolio has been deteriorated by four primary factors. First, capital markets have had significant impact on real estate property valuations. Second, the macro-economy continues to go through a downturn which has had an impact on rents. The final two factors are related to the exposure in the CalPERS real estate portfolio to non-stabilized assets with higher amounts of leverage. These final two factors have exacerbated the recent underperformance to the benchmark as non-stabilized assets provide less income to insulate valuation declines and increased leverage magnifies returns in upward and downward market cycles."
?Also, "Other factors negatively impacting returns included a relatively large proportion of non- stabilized and non-income producing properties and high levels of leverage utilized in CalPERS real estate portfolio relative to the benchmark."
?Consultants PCA expects "fundamentals, and therefore the performance, of the real estate portfolio to continue to deteriorate over the next 12 months and potentially longer. Persistently weak economic conditions, the absence of a functioning commercial mortgage origination/re-financing market and negative leverage are likely to erode income streams and total returns."
nosuchreality
Well-known member
[quote author="morekaos"]Couldn't have happened to a nicer set of crooks..
[/quote]
Of course, you do realize it doesn't matter how badly they screw up, we have to make up for it.
[/quote]
Of course, you do realize it doesn't matter how badly they screw up, we have to make up for it.
morekaos
Well-known member
I am hoping (but not holding my breath) that this shock to the system will bring about change in the way public pensions are managed. If you have ever worked in the public pension system it is like an episode of the Sopranos. These ingrained boneheads running these massive pools of cash need to be removed and replaced. I remember taking some of these Goombas out to dinner in Vegas and they actually wanted my firm to go out and get them some hookers!!! Needless to say, we did not get the business.
morekaos
Well-known member
I wasn't sure where to put this but it seems a great conundrum for our banks. Damned if you do and Damned of you don't. No wonder no one wants to lend...
"A federal judge indicated Monday that he might "cut down" a lawsuit filed by
the city of Baltimore against Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), The Associated Press
reports Monday. The city accuses Wells Fargo of practicing "reverse
redlining"--making bad loans in black neighborhoods that have brought
widespread foreclosures. Monday, Judge J. Frederick Mortz suggested it's not
possible that Wells Fargo is responsible for "the deterioration of the inner
city." The judge said he may restrict the lawsuit to damages from specific
Wells Fargo loans that ended in foreclosure."
Four years ago the government was encouraging loans in these areas.
"A federal judge indicated Monday that he might "cut down" a lawsuit filed by
the city of Baltimore against Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), The Associated Press
reports Monday. The city accuses Wells Fargo of practicing "reverse
redlining"--making bad loans in black neighborhoods that have brought
widespread foreclosures. Monday, Judge J. Frederick Mortz suggested it's not
possible that Wells Fargo is responsible for "the deterioration of the inner
city." The judge said he may restrict the lawsuit to damages from specific
Wells Fargo loans that ended in foreclosure."
Four years ago the government was encouraging loans in these areas.
[quote author="graphrix"]Finally... my puts on GLD in the Panda challenge went green today. Too bad it is not real, but to have some fun I bet bigger in the challenge than I would in my real account. I will let it ride for a while, as the trend is my friend.
Hat tip to: Morekaos [/quote]
So, how is that working out?
Hat tip to: Morekaos [/quote]
So, how is that working out?
graphrix
New member
[quote author="janet"]
[quote author="graphrix"]Finally... my puts on GLD in the Panda challenge went green today. Too bad it is not real, but to have some fun I bet bigger in the challenge than I would in my real account. I will let it ride for a while, as the trend is my friend.
Hat tip to: Morekaos [/quote]
So, how is that working out?[/quote]
Blargle... that is how. I should have stuck with my game plan and sold once I met my profit target. I failed to follow my number 1 rule, stick with the game plan. So what do you do when a bet goes wrong? Double down! I opened the biggest short position that the game would allow on GLD. This time I will stick to my game plan. Once I hit my profit target, if I hit it, I will close the position. Hey, at least my PHM and GS stock was up for the day. But... at the end of the day it is just a game.
BTW, if this is the real Janet, nice to see you here.
[quote author="graphrix"]Finally... my puts on GLD in the Panda challenge went green today. Too bad it is not real, but to have some fun I bet bigger in the challenge than I would in my real account. I will let it ride for a while, as the trend is my friend.
Hat tip to: Morekaos [/quote]
So, how is that working out?[/quote]
Blargle... that is how. I should have stuck with my game plan and sold once I met my profit target. I failed to follow my number 1 rule, stick with the game plan. So what do you do when a bet goes wrong? Double down! I opened the biggest short position that the game would allow on GLD. This time I will stick to my game plan. Once I hit my profit target, if I hit it, I will close the position. Hey, at least my PHM and GS stock was up for the day. But... at the end of the day it is just a game.
BTW, if this is the real Janet, nice to see you here.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Selling uncovered options (both puts and calls) in this mostly sideways market for the past 6-8 weeks has been fairly profitable (thanks to BV for turning me onto this concept). <!-- s
--><!-- s -->
--><!-- s -->
graphrix
New member
[quote author="graphrix"]
[quote author="janet"]
So, how is that working out?[/quote]
Blargle... that is how. I should have stuck with my game plan and sold once I met my profit target. I failed to follow my number 1 rule, stick with the game plan. So what do you do when a bet goes wrong? Double down! I opened the biggest short position that the game would allow on GLD. This time I will stick to my game plan. Once I hit my profit target, if I hit it, I will close the position. Hey, at least my PHM and GS stock was up for the day. But... at the end of the day it is just a game.
BTW, if this is the real Janet, nice to see you here. [/quote]
And... what a difference a day makes! Woo hoo! Those puts when bright freakin green today. So did my short position. I still say that GLD needs to be shorted.
[quote author="janet"]
So, how is that working out?[/quote]
Blargle... that is how. I should have stuck with my game plan and sold once I met my profit target. I failed to follow my number 1 rule, stick with the game plan. So what do you do when a bet goes wrong? Double down! I opened the biggest short position that the game would allow on GLD. This time I will stick to my game plan. Once I hit my profit target, if I hit it, I will close the position. Hey, at least my PHM and GS stock was up for the day. But... at the end of the day it is just a game.
BTW, if this is the real Janet, nice to see you here. [/quote]
And... what a difference a day makes! Woo hoo! Those puts when bright freakin green today. So did my short position. I still say that GLD needs to be shorted.
octrends
New member
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA"]Selling uncovered options (both puts and calls) in this mostly sideways market for the past 6-8 weeks has been fairly profitable (thanks to BV for turning me onto this concept). <!-- s --><!-- s -->[/quote]
how do u pick the stocks to play the options. do u look for the volatility or any kind of range?
--><!-- s -->[/quote]how do u pick the stocks to play the options. do u look for the volatility or any kind of range?
morekaos
Well-known member
[quote author="graphrix"]
[quote author="graphrix"]
Blargle... that is how. I should have stuck with my game plan and sold once I met my profit target. I failed to follow my number 1 rule, stick with the game plan. So what do you do when a bet goes wrong? Double down! I opened the biggest short position that the game would allow on GLD. This time I will stick to my game plan. Once I hit my profit target, if I hit it, I will close the position. Hey, at least my PHM and GS stock was up for the day. But... at the end of the day it is just a game.
BTW, if this is the real Janet, nice to see you here. [/quote]
And... what a difference a day makes! Woo hoo! Those puts when bright freakin green today. So did my short position. I still say that GLD needs to be shorted. [/quote]
Hold on, you ain't seen nothin yet.
[quote author="graphrix"]
Blargle... that is how. I should have stuck with my game plan and sold once I met my profit target. I failed to follow my number 1 rule, stick with the game plan. So what do you do when a bet goes wrong? Double down! I opened the biggest short position that the game would allow on GLD. This time I will stick to my game plan. Once I hit my profit target, if I hit it, I will close the position. Hey, at least my PHM and GS stock was up for the day. But... at the end of the day it is just a game.
BTW, if this is the real Janet, nice to see you here. [/quote]
And... what a difference a day makes! Woo hoo! Those puts when bright freakin green today. So did my short position. I still say that GLD needs to be shorted. [/quote]
Hold on, you ain't seen nothin yet.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
[quote author="octrends"]
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA"]Selling uncovered options (both puts and calls) in this mostly sideways market for the past 6-8 weeks has been fairly profitable (thanks to BV for turning me onto this concept). <!-- s --><!-- s -->[/quote]
how do u pick the stocks to play the options. do u look for the volatility or any kind of range?[/quote]
I use a formula of collecting around 3-5% of the stock price in out-of-the-money options (calls or puts) and only sell uncovered calls that are within 3-4 weeks of expiring or right before earnings. I really analyze the technicals by looks at patterns and technical support/residence levels. My favorite stock to play options on is FAZ...I was selling way out-of-the-money calls and puts (this isn't for the faint of heart).
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA"]Selling uncovered options (both puts and calls) in this mostly sideways market for the past 6-8 weeks has been fairly profitable (thanks to BV for turning me onto this concept). <!-- s
--><!-- s -->[/quote]how do u pick the stocks to play the options. do u look for the volatility or any kind of range?[/quote]
I use a formula of collecting around 3-5% of the stock price in out-of-the-money options (calls or puts) and only sell uncovered calls that are within 3-4 weeks of expiring or right before earnings. I really analyze the technicals by looks at patterns and technical support/residence levels. My favorite stock to play options on is FAZ...I was selling way out-of-the-money calls and puts (this isn't for the faint of heart).
panda
Well-known member
[quote author="morekaos"]
[quote author="morekaos"]Is the Panda challenge still in effect?
October 19, 2009 - S&P at 1100.
December 31th, 2009
Graphrix - 950
Novas - 951
Panda - 750
Bondtrader - 1020
Awgee - 1085
MoreKaos- 1150
IHO - 888
[/quote]
I win!!![/quote]
Congrats MoreKaos! Hats off to you. I have to say, my timing was really off. So do you see S&P at 750 anytime in 2010? If so.. how soon?
[quote author="morekaos"]Is the Panda challenge still in effect?
October 19, 2009 - S&P at 1100.
December 31th, 2009
Graphrix - 950
Novas - 951
Panda - 750
Bondtrader - 1020
Awgee - 1085
MoreKaos- 1150
IHO - 888
[/quote]
I win!!![/quote]
Congrats MoreKaos! Hats off to you. I have to say, my timing was really off. So do you see S&P at 750 anytime in 2010? If so.. how soon?
[quote author="graphrix"]
[quote author="graphrix"]
Blargle... that is how. I should have stuck with my game plan and sold once I met my profit target. I failed to follow my number 1 rule, stick with the game plan. So what do you do when a bet goes wrong? Double down! I opened the biggest short position that the game would allow on GLD. This time I will stick to my game plan. Once I hit my profit target, if I hit it, I will close the position. Hey, at least my PHM and GS stock was up for the day. But... at the end of the day it is just a game.
BTW, if this is the real Janet, nice to see you here. [/quote]
And... what a difference a day makes! Woo hoo! Those puts when bright freakin green today. So did my short position. I still say that GLD needs to be shorted. [/quote]Did the puts expire in December or ? If they expired, how did that go?
[quote author="graphrix"]
Blargle... that is how. I should have stuck with my game plan and sold once I met my profit target. I failed to follow my number 1 rule, stick with the game plan. So what do you do when a bet goes wrong? Double down! I opened the biggest short position that the game would allow on GLD. This time I will stick to my game plan. Once I hit my profit target, if I hit it, I will close the position. Hey, at least my PHM and GS stock was up for the day. But... at the end of the day it is just a game.
BTW, if this is the real Janet, nice to see you here. [/quote]
And... what a difference a day makes! Woo hoo! Those puts when bright freakin green today. So did my short position. I still say that GLD needs to be shorted. [/quote]Did the puts expire in December or ? If they expired, how did that go?