Is this flip for real?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/7-Moon-Dust-92603/unit-25/home/5710286


7 MOON DUST #25 Irvine, CA 92603

Jan 18, 2010 Listed $535,000
Jan 04, 2010 Sold (Public Records) $452,100
Mar 20, 2006 Sold (Public Records) $682,000



Beds: 2
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.: 1,525
$/Sq. Ft.: $351
Lot Size: -
Property Type: Residential, Condominium
Style: 3+ Levels, Cape Cod
Year Built: 1982
Community: Turtle Rock
County: Orange
MLS#: P718065
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active This listing is for sale and the sellers are accepting offers.
On Redfin: 3 days
Great Townhome in Prestigious Turtle Rock Community. Desireable corner location with a bright lit and welcoming living room, dining room, open kitchen and family room layout, fireplace, and stainless steel applianes. Within a quiet community featuring a swimming pool, spa, walking trails and tennis courts. Standard Sale, not an REO or Short-Sale! Turnkey Property! Perfect for first time home buyers and/or investors.

hah, I looked at a neighboring unit as a rental. they wanted $1900.

those units are 30 years old, and rather worn out now. HOA is $300, and look for some major assessments for big maintenance.

value to owner-occupier is ~$350k. for an investor, about $225k.

Do you really think the value is that low when tear-down single family homes in Turtle Rock are selling for $800,000?

I haven't looked at this particular condo but it says it's turnkey. I was just wondering if the numbers were right on redfin - someone buying and putting it back on the market in two weeks for almost 20% more than they paid.

[quote author="locolocal"]Do you really think the value is that low when tear-down single family homes in Turtle Rock are selling for $800,000?

I haven't looked at this particular condo but it says it's turnkey. I was just wondering if the numbers were right on redfin - someone buying and putting it back on the market in two weeks for almost 20% more than they paid.
[/quote]
The seller purchased it at the foreclosure auction for cash. The opening bid was $412,250 and got big up to over $450k. They'll be lucky to sell it for $500k.

[quote author="locolocal"]Do you really think the value is that low when tear-down single family homes in Turtle Rock are selling for $800,000?

I haven't looked at this particular condo but it says it's turnkey. I was just wondering if the numbers were right on redfin - someone buying and putting it back on the market in two weeks for almost 20% more than they paid.
[/quote]

Did you look at the pictures? It sure isn't "Turnkey" if by that you mean updated to modern standards. It is still an attached condo that is 30 years old in a complex with limited parking far away from anywhere you want to go.

I still think that value is fundamentally related to rent. is it 160X rent, 200X rent? those you can argue about. Even if you want to argue that it should be 300X rent, I would consider your argument (but suspect that I would never agree).

[quote author="FreedomCM"]
[quote author="locolocal"]Do you really think the value is that low when tear-down single family homes in Turtle Rock are selling for $800,000?

I haven't looked at this particular condo but it says it's turnkey. I was just wondering if the numbers were right on redfin - someone buying and putting it back on the market in two weeks for almost 20% more than they paid.
[/quote]

Did you look at the pictures? It sure isn't "Turnkey" if by that you mean updated to modern standards. It is still an attached condo that is 30 years old in a complex with limited parking far away from anywhere you want to go.

I still think that value is fundamentally related to rent. is it 160X rent, 200X rent? those you can argue about. Even if you want to argue that it should be 300X rent, I would consider your argument (but suspect that I would never agree).

[/quote]
The only reason this thing would even sell for over $300/sf is because it's located in Turtle Rock which puts you in the best school zone in Irvine.

Are there really buyers for 2bd condos that are thinking about where their kids will go to school?

even if he makes 40-50k on the deal, after taxes and broker commissions, it won't be that much he is making if any.


hahaha. Someone paid almost 700k for this place in 2006? A condo? hahaha.

[quote author="frank69m"]even if he makes 40-50k on the deal, after taxes and broker commissions, it won't be that much he is making if any.


hahaha. Someone paid almost 700k for this place in 2006? A condo? hahaha.[/quote]
Yeah, if they do make a profit it won't be anything to write home about that's for sure. There are more and more investors/flippers going to the courthouses for these foreclosure auctions and that is driving the bidding up so the properties that are being sold to 3rd parties are getting more and more expensive and the profit margins are dropping. If the market takes a dip down (like 5%), a lot of these "investors" will be lucky to breakeven.