Author Topic: Inventory creeping up?  (Read 68519 times)

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Offline rickr

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Inventory creeping up?
« on: May 25, 2013, 12:28:25 PM »
324 on Redfin this morning.

Offline cowlemon

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2013, 12:42:25 PM »
Also noticed there are more homes that have been on the market for 2 weeks or more than previous months.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2013, 12:48:07 PM »
Also noticed there are more homes that have been on the market for 2 weeks or more than previous months.
324 on Redfin this morning.
Yup inventory has gone from a low of 175ish to 320ish.  However, we need inventory to triple to like 900 homes in order for us to get to a neutral market (about 4 months if inventory).  Even with the increasing inventory there are still lots of buyers out there and you can see that by what some recent listings are closing for (way above list price). 
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Offline qwerty

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2013, 01:16:26 PM »
Also noticed there are more homes that have been on the market for 2 weeks or more than previous months.
324 on Redfin this morning.
Yup inventory has gone from a low of 175ish to 320ish.  However, we need inventory to triple to like 900 homes in order for us to get to a neutral market (about 4 months if inventory).  Even with the increasing inventory there are still lots of buyers out there and you can see that by what some recent listings are closing for (way above list price). 

The invemtory going up though is still a positive indicator that the market is beginning to realize the absurdity of 20-30% increases in a year.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2013, 01:29:50 PM »
Also noticed there are more homes that have been on the market for 2 weeks or more than previous months.
324 on Redfin this morning.
Yup inventory has gone from a low of 175ish to 320ish.  However, we need inventory to triple to like 900 homes in order for us to get to a neutral market (about 4 months if inventory).  Even with the increasing inventory there are still lots of buyers out there and you can see that by what some recent listings are closing for (way above list price). 

The invemtory going up though is still a positive indicator that the market is beginning to realize the absurdity of 20-30% increases in a year.
Increasing inventory and increasing prices will help to level out the demand/supply equilibrium.  We are going in the right direction but got a long way to go.  Every resale home that I've made an offer on in the past 3 years had multiple offers, even one just last week.
Martin Mania, CPA
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Offline daedalus

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2013, 02:27:52 PM »
The invemtory going up though is still a positive indicator that the market is beginning to realize the absurdity of 20-30% increases in a year.
Depends.  Is inventory up because transactions are dropping?  Or because more sellers are coming to market?  If the latter, then buyers may not have realized anything, while sellers are just making offers [to sell] that they can't refuse.

Offline qwerty

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2013, 05:11:24 PM »
The invemtory going up though is still a positive indicator that the market is beginning to realize the absurdity of 20-30% increases in a year.
Depends.  Is inventory up because transactions are dropping?  Or because more sellers are coming to market?  If the latter, then buyers may not have realized anything, while sellers are just making offers [to sell] that they can't refuse.

The formula is tied together. Any way you slice it, inventory going up is better for the buyer

Offline daedalus

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2013, 02:42:52 AM »
Any way you slice it, inventory going up is better for the buyer
I don't disagree with that.  Is that what you were trying to say? 

Offline Marty

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2013, 07:14:38 AM »
I assume the inventory is based on MLS listings.  How about new homes?  TIC has been releasing a steady supply, but Fivepoints will have 700+ homes at the end of this year and next year

Offline qwerty

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2013, 07:21:03 AM »
Any way you slice it, inventory going up is better for the buyer
I don't disagree with that.  Is that what you were trying to say? 

Yep

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2013, 11:29:50 AM »
I assume the inventory is based on MLS listings.  How about new homes?  TIC has been releasing a steady supply, but Fivepoints will have 700+ homes at the end of this year and next year
There's no true source to determine how many new homes are on the market.  The tricky part is that those 700+ homes would be sold over 6-12 months, remember there's only one phase that's available at a time.
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Offline Coleman

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2013, 11:44:53 AM »
It will be interesting to see how long the lists are to get a home. To be a part of the first phase of many in the Great Park has some appeal.  Saratoga with a driveway would be nice. (Or a 3CWG with one space tandem to accommodate four cars  :D)

Offline Marty

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2013, 04:03:54 PM »
I assume the inventory is based on MLS listings.  How about new homes?  TIC has been releasing a steady supply, but Fivepoints will have 700+ homes at the end of this year and next year
There's no true source to determine how many new homes are on the market.  The tricky part is that those 700+ homes would be sold over 6-12 months, remember there's only one phase that's available at a time.

How about the Ryness Report?  Do you get access to that?  I used to get that report back in 2008 or so to see how the new homes were selling

Offline The California Court Company

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2013, 08:35:39 PM »
. To be a part of the first phase of many in the Great Park has some appeal
what appeal ? Lab rats?
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Offline BunkMoreland

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Re: Inventory creeping up?
« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2013, 10:16:34 PM »
Also noticed there are more homes that have been on the market for 2 weeks or more than previous months.
324 on Redfin this morning.
Yup inventory has gone from a low of 175ish to 320ish.  However, we need inventory to triple to like 900 homes in order for us to get to a neutral market (about 4 months if inventory).  Even with the increasing inventory there are still lots of buyers out there and you can see that by what some recent listings are closing for (way above list price).

You never give me good news.

 

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