Poll

Is Irvine feeling a bit bubble-licious to you lately?

Yes... buy now are be priced out forever.
24 (27.3%)
No... it's just there are only 3 houses on the MLS and interest rates are .00000888%
9 (10.2%)
Maybe... but it's short term... just a mini-bubble that will pop in several months
32 (36.4%)
I have no idea... but I think I just saw a unicorn
19 (21.6%)
Other
4 (4.5%)

Total Members Voted: 87

Author Topic: What the bubble?!?  (Read 91268 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #330 on: March 11, 2014, 01:14:09 PM »
Also, why would I be willing to pay the same monthly as back in 2005-06 for the same house?

Back then, those were inflated prices so I didn't want to pay that much (which is why I sold).

What I want to do is pay less monthly for the same house, or pay the same monthly for a better house.
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Offline paperboyNC

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #331 on: March 11, 2014, 01:16:59 PM »
But now you brought up a question, for Irvine, what was the bubble prices over by? If not 40% or even 20% than what? And, do you consider 2014 a fundamentally priced year, or was it more like 2012. I think 2012 was (and if you factor in interest, even moreso), and then prices jumped in 2013 which is when I originally posted this thread and hence the "bubble" word.

You were right that we had a mini bubble on certain homes in 2013. I could have gotten more for my home last summer than I could get today.

2012 had prices that were too low (which is inventory dried up so fast) and yes, 2014 is more fundamentally priced overall than 2012 or 2013. I still think that land is more valuable and homes with more land will retain their value and grow in value more in the long run than homes without land. That's why I'd love to get out of my detached condo sooner rather than later and get a >6000 sq ft lot.

Offline paperboyNC

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #332 on: March 11, 2014, 01:18:44 PM »
Also, why would I be willing to pay the same monthly as back in 2005-06 for the same house?

Back then, those were inflated prices so I didn't want to pay that much (which is why I sold).

What I want to do is pay less monthly for the same house, or pay the same monthly for a better house.

Thanks to lower interest rates and lower prices (if you look in the right places) you can pay about 20% less for the same house than you did in 2006. Once you factor in inflation, you are paying even a lot less.

Your wish has been granted. I'm sure USCTrojan and Solvent Green can get you all setup.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #333 on: March 19, 2014, 08:49:25 AM »
Dang, $1.3m for Northwood Pointe, and pending after just 3 days on market:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Middleton-92620/home/4793273
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline ps9

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #334 on: March 19, 2014, 09:08:10 AM »
Dang, $1.3m for Northwood Pointe, and pending after just 3 days on market:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/10-Middleton-92620/home/4793273

Probably saw the OH floorplans I posted :)

Offline morekaos

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #335 on: March 26, 2014, 09:11:46 AM »
There's that word again...

http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-home-prices-20140326,0,4729002.story#axzz2x5NGPUrA

O.C., L.A. and Inland Empire homes are overpriced, Trulia says

No place is that gap between home price and income growing faster than in Southern California, which led Kolko to rank Orange County, Los Angeles and the Inland Empire among his five most overvalued markets in a "Bubble-Watch" report he issued Tuesday. If a new housing bubble is forming, he wrote, it will form here first.

jmoney74

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #336 on: March 26, 2014, 10:15:57 AM »
My question is.. if there is a bubble which there very well might.. how will it play out when 30% of the buyers around here paid cash!  Also, a lot of the other buyers have put a big down payment.  Not sure if there would be a sell off.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #337 on: March 26, 2014, 03:51:18 PM »
My question is.. if there is a bubble which there very well might.. how will it play out when 30% of the buyers around here paid cash!  Also, a lot of the other buyers have put a big down payment.  Not sure if there would be a sell off.
And there is still less than 3 months worth of re-sale inventory.  If you see inventory levels start to get to 6+ months, then it'll be time to worry about home prices falling.  We seem to be at an equilibrium at the moment with flatish prices.
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Offline Homer_Simpson

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #338 on: March 28, 2014, 08:47:53 AM »
It'll slowly deflate if even that. 
#FARM

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #339 on: March 28, 2014, 08:52:16 AM »
My question is.. if there is a bubble which there very well might.. how will it play out when 30% of the buyers around here paid cash!  Also, a lot of the other buyers have put a big down payment.  Not sure if there would be a sell off.
That's why the last bubble didn't hit Irvine as hard as other cities.

Since owners were not distressed by falling values, they didn't have to panic sell and just waited it out which caused less of a foreclosure tsunami as predicted.

I asked about this before but was I was dismissed as being crazy.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline SoCal

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #340 on: March 28, 2014, 10:59:24 AM »
"Will China's Housing Bubble Bust Turn Foreign Buyers Into Desperate Sellers?"

http://ochousingnews.com/blog/will-chinas-housing-bust-turn-foreign-buyers-into-desperate-sellers/

I just read these articles / blog post. Interesting. It ought to be a good read for "What The Bubble".

And no. I don't think the "Tyler Durden" mentioned there is the same one TI readers might be familiar with.





Offline lnc

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #341 on: March 28, 2014, 11:45:46 AM »
"Will China's Housing Bubble Bust Turn Foreign Buyers Into Desperate Sellers?"

http://ochousingnews.com/blog/will-chinas-housing-bust-turn-foreign-buyers-into-desperate-sellers/

I just read these articles / blog post. Interesting. It ought to be a good read for "What The Bubble".

And no. I don't think the "Tyler Durden" mentioned there is the same one TI readers might be familiar with.

Zubs also post something related:
Zerohedge is reporting that HK realestate is being sold at fire sale prices.  I didn't check into it, but if it's true, FCBs may be drying up her in lala land or even selling their newly bought homes to raise cash.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-19/music-just-ended-wealthy-chinese-are-liquidating-offshore-luxury-homes-scramble-cash

Just keep in mind ZH has been touting a China realestate meltdown for the past 5 yrs.  IHO your turn may be coming up.


I remember someone mentioned that if things go south in China, instead of selling properties here to raise cash, opposite might happen, more FCB will flock to US instead.

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jmoney74

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #342 on: March 28, 2014, 11:56:11 AM »
I think they are trying to already do that now.

I can't standing OCHousingnews most of the time.  Terrible blog.. sky is falling every day. 

Offline paperboyNC

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #343 on: April 02, 2018, 03:04:33 PM »
Most popular voting result: "a mini-bubble that will pop in several months".. dead wrong..

Offline Burn That Belly

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #344 on: April 02, 2018, 04:00:43 PM »
x
« Last Edit: August 01, 2018, 02:45:11 PM by Burn That Belly »
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