Poll

Is Irvine feeling a bit bubble-licious to you lately?

Yes... buy now are be priced out forever.
24 (27.3%)
No... it's just there are only 3 houses on the MLS and interest rates are .00000888%
9 (10.2%)
Maybe... but it's short term... just a mini-bubble that will pop in several months
32 (36.4%)
I have no idea... but I think I just saw a unicorn
19 (21.6%)
Other
4 (4.5%)

Total Members Voted: 87

Author Topic: What the bubble?!?  (Read 91347 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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What the bubble?!?
« on: April 26, 2013, 10:53:35 AM »
So what is going on here? Stuff that sold in the last two years is being listed for $100k+ or more?

Does Larry have to make a return to the IHB to tell everyone we are in Bubble 2.0?

Or do we hope for the banks to release the Kraken and get all that shadow inventory on the market?

It was very easy to say we were bubbling when there was so much inventory, new home tracts and higher interest rates... but is this latest "run-up" just a product of record low inventory and interest rates?

Is it tied to stocks or the price of gold?

And is it just Irvine? I've seen listings of 3CWGs in Aliso Viejo that were $600-700k last year but now are in the $800-900k range.

Serenity now!!!
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Offline Homer_Simpson

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2013, 10:59:42 AM »
Mini bubble.
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Offline Cubic Zirconia

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2013, 11:01:19 AM »
Voted for mini-bubble. As soon as the suitcase people understand that they can buy a house on low interest mortgage and invest that money into donuts, this bubble will burst.
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Offline hrcp

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2013, 03:59:16 PM »
Not quite a Hubba Bubba bubble; more like a Dentyne bubble but a bubble nonetheless.  I've been looking to buy something a bit larger in NW / WB, and it seems that every house gets bought cash (something like 80% of the time).  Then I see many of the newly bought houses on the rental market the next day.

Low inventory + speculative cash buyers = Dentyne bubble

If not for the higher loan qualification requirements, I think we'd be in a Hubba Bubba bubble right now.



Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2013, 04:02:18 PM »
Not quite a Hubba Bubba bubble; more like a Dentyne bubble but a bubble nonetheless.  I've been looking to buy something a bit larger in NW / WB, and it seems that every house gets bought cash (something like 80% of the time).  Then I see many of the newly bought houses on the rental market the next day.

Low inventory + speculative cash buyers = Dentyne bubble

If not for the higher loan qualification requirements, I think we'd be in a Hubba Bubba bubble right now.
Good way of putting it.  We will keep going higher in price until their is an equilibrium between supply and demand.
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Offline HomeOwner Irvine

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2013, 04:15:52 PM »
Not quite a Hubba Bubba bubble; more like a Dentyne bubble but a bubble nonetheless.  I've been looking to buy something a bit larger in NW / WB, and it seems that every house gets bought cash (something like 80% of the time).  Then I see many of the newly bought houses on the rental market the next day.

Low inventory + speculative cash buyers = Dentyne bubble

If not for the higher loan qualification requirements, I think we'd be in a Hubba Bubba bubble right now.
Good way of putting it.  We will keep going higher in price until their is an equilibrium between supply and demand.

Simple supply-demand economics at work. Also the fact that most buyers are putting a lot of their own money (20-30%+, if you are a FCB or investor then 100%) into the purchase, this one is very different than the last bubble.

In fact there are a lot of investors and hedge funds investing in real estate due to yields higher. On a side note this article has some good data points  - http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/is-the-housing-market-rebound-petering-out-plus-where-to-find-better-than-bonds-returns-with-less-risk-51727

Offline quattroporte

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2013, 05:20:23 PM »
Not quite a Hubba Bubba bubble; more like a Dentyne bubble but a bubble nonetheless.  I've been looking to buy something a bit larger in NW / WB, and it seems that every house gets bought cash (something like 80% of the time).  Then I see many of the newly bought houses on the rental market the next day.

Low inventory + speculative cash buyers = Dentyne bubble

If not for the higher loan qualification requirements, I think we'd be in a Hubba Bubba bubble right now.
Good way of putting it.  We will keep going higher in price until their is an equilibrium between supply and demand.

Simple supply-demand economics at work. Also the fact that most buyers are putting a lot of their own money (20-30%+, if you are a FCB or investor then 100%) into the purchase, this one is very different than the last bubble.

In fact there are a lot of investors and hedge funds investing in real estate due to yields higher. On a side note this article has some good data points  - http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/is-the-housing-market-rebound-petering-out-plus-where-to-find-better-than-bonds-returns-with-less-risk-51727

Good read. I was impressed by the writer until till the last few paragraphs where he was trying to sell his report for $99 in pre-order.

Offline HomeOwner Irvine

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2013, 05:23:39 PM »

Good read. I was impressed by the writer until till the last few paragraphs where he was trying to sell his report for $99 in pre-order.

Exact same thoughts :).

Offline kubert13

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2013, 10:05:30 AM »
I thought I would share this.  This home sold for $815,000 just recently and was originally sold for $680,000 in 2011.  It's a new construction from Van Daele homes in Portola Springs.  No driveway, on a motorcourt and an Irvine-sized backyard.  Quite an appreciation for 1.5 years.  I knew about it because I got a flyer on my door from the realtor who sold that home asking if I wanted to sell mine as well...

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/38-Prickly-Pear-92618/home/40125498

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Offline quattroporte

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2013, 10:54:27 AM »
I thought I would share this.  This home sold for $815,000 just recently and was originally sold for $680,000 in 2011.  It's a new construction from Van Daele homes in Portola Springs.  No driveway, on a motorcourt and an Irvine-sized backyard.  Quite an appreciation for 1.5 years.  I knew about it because I got a flyer on my door from the realtor who sold that home asking if I wanted to sell mine as well...

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/38-Prickly-Pear-92618/home/40125498

Looks like the seller initially didnt know how hot the market was.

It was listed for $719,000 on Feb. 21, 2013 and then it was delisted and relisted for $810,000 four days later on Feb. 25, 2013. Relisted again for $799,000 on Mar. 25, 2013 and sold for $815,000 a month later. They must have had a bidding war.

Also, it states "Buyer Financing: Private". I wonder what that is...........

Offline jayl23

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2013, 04:43:57 PM »

Also, it states "Buyer Financing: Private". I wonder what that is...........

Sounds like "none o' yo beeswax" to me.  Probably some rich person who wants privacy.

Offline quattroporte

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2013, 04:48:01 PM »

Also, it states "Buyer Financing: Private". I wonder what that is...........

Sounds like "none o' yo beeswax" to me.  Probably some rich person who wants privacy.

or maybe they paid in gold. lol

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2013, 02:23:19 PM »
It's feeling like a bubble to me, except now all the buyers are well financed or cash... no ninja loans this time around.
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Offline Homer_Simpson

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #13 on: June 11, 2013, 02:32:21 PM »
Wonder what the aftermath will look like.
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Offline ZeroLot

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Re: What the bubble?!?
« Reply #14 on: June 11, 2013, 10:02:55 PM »
I thought I would share this.  This home sold for $815,000 just recently and was originally sold for $680,000 in 2011.  It's a new construction from Van Daele homes in Portola Springs.  No driveway, on a motorcourt and an Irvine-sized backyard.  Quite an appreciation for 1.5 years.  I knew about it because I got a flyer on my door from the realtor who sold that home asking if I wanted to sell mine as well...

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/38-Prickly-Pear-92618/home/40125498

Oh no, not again.  Realtors are asking current homeowners if they are willing to sell their homes.  Deja Vu ....

I live in Woodbridge.  We bought ours in 2004.  For 2 years we got constant pestering from realtors (literally, knock on our door and having 10 minute conversations because they would not take no as an answer) and endless phone calls asking if we want to sell our home.  After 2008, they all went away.  We've been pestered-free since. 
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