I pulled the following paragraphs from John Mauldin's weekly newsletter ( free at www.frontlinethoughts.com ) Though John is the author of this snippet I am pulling, data infused in the writing comes from The Liscio Report.
By the way, the total number of people on unemployment is about 300,000 worse than most media accounts report. The Extended (and Emergency) unemployment claims for those out of work more than 26 weeks are not seasonally adjusted. To get the total number of people on unemployment insurance of all kinds, you have to add the non-seasonally adjusted number of continuing claims, which is currently about 300,000 higher than the seasonal adjustment. Here is a chart from Philippa, at www.theliscioreport.com.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-file.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/thoughts_5F00_from_5F00_the_5F00_frontline/jm010810image001_5F00_5C15BDAE.jpg
She explained, "For the week ended 12/19, 10.42 million Americans were receiving unemployment benefits, With 5.44 million Extended claims (week ended 12/19) and 4.98 million Continuing claims.
"But NSA jobless claims show a far different story. The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 645,571 in the week ending Jan. 2, an increase of 88,000 from the previous week. There were 731,958 Initial claims in the comparable week in 2009... The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,479,110, an increase of 388,729 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.0 percent and the volume was 5,317,388.
"So the actual, the real benefits paid (Initial, Continuing, and EUC claims) hit another record of 11.268 million." (source: The Big Picture)
Today's employment report was just terrible. The headline said we lost 85,000 jobs. That is from the establishment survey, where they call up larger businesses and ask them about their employment. They also do a household survey, where they survey about 400,000 households. That report reveals a much worse situation.
Last month, single women who are heads of households saw their unemployment ranks rise by a massive 127,000. The number of employed men fell by 214,000. The total number of unemployed in the survey rose by an enormous 589,000. Those classified as not in the work force (due to the fact that they did not look for jobs) rose by 843,000! That now means that in 2009 3.5 million people were dropped from the potential labor force count because they were discouraged.
By the way, the total number of people on unemployment is about 300,000 worse than most media accounts report. The Extended (and Emergency) unemployment claims for those out of work more than 26 weeks are not seasonally adjusted. To get the total number of people on unemployment insurance of all kinds, you have to add the non-seasonally adjusted number of continuing claims, which is currently about 300,000 higher than the seasonal adjustment. Here is a chart from Philippa, at www.theliscioreport.com.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-file.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/thoughts_5F00_from_5F00_the_5F00_frontline/jm010810image001_5F00_5C15BDAE.jpg
She explained, "For the week ended 12/19, 10.42 million Americans were receiving unemployment benefits, With 5.44 million Extended claims (week ended 12/19) and 4.98 million Continuing claims.
"But NSA jobless claims show a far different story. The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 645,571 in the week ending Jan. 2, an increase of 88,000 from the previous week. There were 731,958 Initial claims in the comparable week in 2009... The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 5,479,110, an increase of 388,729 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.0 percent and the volume was 5,317,388.
"So the actual, the real benefits paid (Initial, Continuing, and EUC claims) hit another record of 11.268 million." (source: The Big Picture)
Today's employment report was just terrible. The headline said we lost 85,000 jobs. That is from the establishment survey, where they call up larger businesses and ask them about their employment. They also do a household survey, where they survey about 400,000 households. That report reveals a much worse situation.
Last month, single women who are heads of households saw their unemployment ranks rise by a massive 127,000. The number of employed men fell by 214,000. The total number of unemployed in the survey rose by an enormous 589,000. Those classified as not in the work force (due to the fact that they did not look for jobs) rose by 843,000! That now means that in 2009 3.5 million people were dropped from the potential labor force count because they were discouraged.
