Author Topic: 3-Car Garage Homes  (Read 150304 times)

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Offline Mety

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #570 on: December 04, 2018, 02:45:45 PM »
Actual drop - 28%
Felt like it was - 20%
Ok? Just move on, guys.

One life lesson: No one will EVER change their mind unless God humbles him/her. You guys are not God and you can't change each other.





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Offline meccos12

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #571 on: December 04, 2018, 03:43:22 PM »
I notice you never found the post where I said ALL of Irvine homes dropped only 10% (or 15%). Instead you shift it to try to find some fault somewhere else in either how I say something or when I say it, and you are failing miserably.

No, you are right.  I agree you never said ALL of Irvine dropped 10%, you said only the homes you specifically saw dropped 10-15% in Jan of 2010.  I stand corrected.  Is that fair?

Offline meccos12

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #572 on: December 04, 2018, 03:45:40 PM »
Actual drop - 28%
Felt like it was - 20%
Ok? Just move on, guys.

One life lesson: No one will EVER change their mind unless God humbles him/her. You guys are not God and you can't change each other.

I think you nailed it.  Concise and clear.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #573 on: December 04, 2018, 03:52:52 PM »
Actual drop - 28%
Felt like it was - 20%
Ok? Just move on, guys.

One life lesson: No one will EVER change their mind unless God humbles him/her. You guys are not God and you can't change each other.

Does 28% feel significantly different from 20%?

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #574 on: December 04, 2018, 03:58:36 PM »
I notice you never found the post where I said ALL of Irvine homes dropped only 10% (or 15%). Instead you shift it to try to find some fault somewhere else in either how I say something or when I say it, and you are failing miserably.

No, you are right.  I agree you never said ALL of Irvine dropped 10%, you said only the homes you specifically saw dropped 10-15% in Jan of 2010.  I stand corrected.  Is that fair?

Why do you keep adding that Jan 2010 stamp? That’s just when this thread started. You can look at my posts in 2011-2012 in this same thread and still see homes that are only 10-15% that I posted.

Not sure why you’re not getting that.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
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Offline meccos12

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #575 on: December 04, 2018, 05:07:07 PM »
I notice you never found the post where I said ALL of Irvine homes dropped only 10% (or 15%). Instead you shift it to try to find some fault somewhere else in either how I say something or when I say it, and you are failing miserably.

No, you are right.  I agree you never said ALL of Irvine dropped 10%, you said only the homes you specifically saw dropped 10-15% in Jan of 2010.  I stand corrected.  Is that fair?


Why do you keep adding that Jan 2010 stamp? That’s just when this thread started. You can look at my posts in 2011-2012 in this same thread and still see homes that are only 10-15% that I posted.

Not sure why you’re not getting that.

Ill just leave these here... just a few I found in YOUR thread with sold prices near peak (not even at peak) and then again sold near lows (again not even at the bottom). 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/54-Desert-Willow-92606/home/7215161

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/26-Desert-Willow-92606/home/7219438

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/30-Gray-Dove-92618/home/7203699


Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #576 on: December 05, 2018, 07:25:19 AM »
Ill just leave these here... just a few I found in YOUR thread with sold prices near peak (not even at peak) and then again sold near lows (again not even at the bottom). 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/54-Desert-Willow-92606/home/7215161

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/26-Desert-Willow-92606/home/7219438

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/30-Gray-Dove-92618/home/7203699

Congratulations, you finally read the first post in this thread. But as is your style, you don't actually quote the entire post to leave out context, because at the beginning, I said this:

I wouldn't want to pay more than $800k for a 3-car garage house.

Remember what I said in the other thread? I'll quote it here in case you didn't read that either (emphasis mine):

You’re reading both the data and my posts wrong.

Those 700 homes were on Redfin and either they didn’t fit my criteria, were too expensive, etc.

And I said it one more time when I referenced this thread:

As I said in my first post, I was hoping to get a 3WCG for less than $800k which was only a 20% discount, and while a few were cheaper (and in bad shape), many were above that price range.

Those 3 homes you listed were all above $800k, I think 2 were above $900K. We didn't even look at these homes in person, thus... not ones we were actually serious about. And I don't know if you are familiar with that area but the 2 in Columbus Grove were right next to a huge power line. And if I remember correctly, 54 Desert Willow was a pre-foreclosure or short sale, you can see by the listing history it took 10 months to sell.

As I've said, there were homes that dropped more than 20%... but you might as well find the posts where I listed homes with huge drops in Shady Canyon, I looked at them on Redfin, but there was no way I was going to have Scott show me those homes as they were well out of my price range (although I considered dropping in during Broker Previews).

The only reason I pointed you to this thread was to demonstrate what type of housing I was looking at because you asked. Instead, you're trying to use it as proof that I am being "deceitful"... which if I was, why would I even show you this thread?

And again, while TI doesn't necessarily represent all Irvine buyers (nor do I), since I've been part of IHB/TI, I don't recall a significant number of members who've said that they were able to buy at a 30% discount. That's a more "deceitful" number because I don't think the majority of buyers in 2011-12 realized that type of discount which again is why I prefer to use a rolling average for a true representation of what buyers could purchase homes for during that time. That's why I always mention timing when we talk about waiting for prices to drop.

For someone so data driven, do you actually think that was the discount most people who bought at that time got? Because median sales price does not necessarily mean median discount.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
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www.loansbyjw.com

Offline meccos12

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #577 on: December 05, 2018, 07:55:20 AM »
Ill just leave these here... just a few I found in YOUR thread with sold prices near peak (not even at peak) and then again sold near lows (again not even at the bottom). 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/54-Desert-Willow-92606/home/7215161

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/26-Desert-Willow-92606/home/7219438

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/30-Gray-Dove-92618/home/7203699

Congratulations, you finally read the first post in this thread. But as is your style, you don't actually quote the entire post to leave out context, because at the beginning, I said this:

I wouldn't want to pay more than $800k for a 3-car garage house.

Remember what I said in the other thread? I'll quote it here in case you didn't read that either (emphasis mine):

You’re reading both the data and my posts wrong.

Those 700 homes were on Redfin and either they didn’t fit my criteria, were too expensive, etc.

And I said it one more time when I referenced this thread:

As I said in my first post, I was hoping to get a 3WCG for less than $800k which was only a 20% discount, and while a few were cheaper (and in bad shape), many were above that price range.

Those 3 homes you listed were all above $800k, I think 2 were above $900K. We didn't even look at these homes in person, thus... not ones we were actually serious about. And I don't know if you are familiar with that area but the 2 in Columbus Grove were right next to a huge power line. And if I remember correctly, 54 Desert Willow was a pre-foreclosure or short sale, you can see by the listing history it took 10 months to sell.

As I've said, there were homes that dropped more than 20%... but you might as well find the posts where I listed homes with huge drops in Shady Canyon, I looked at them on Redfin, but there was no way I was going to have Scott show me those homes as they were well out of my price range (although I considered dropping in during Broker Previews).

The only reason I pointed you to this thread was to demonstrate what type of housing I was looking at because you asked. Instead, you're trying to use it as proof that I am being "deceitful"... which if I was, why would I even show you this thread?

And again, while TI doesn't necessarily represent all Irvine buyers (nor do I), since I've been part of IHB/TI, I don't recall a significant number of members who've said that they were able to buy at a 30% discount. That's a more "deceitful" number because I don't think the majority of buyers in 2011-12 realized that type of discount which again is why I prefer to use a rolling average for a true representation of what buyers could purchase homes for during that time. That's why I always mention timing when we talk about waiting for prices to drop.

For someone so data driven, do you actually think that was the discount most people who bought at that time got? Because median sales price does not necessarily mean median discount.

So it is then fair to say, the 10-15% price drop was ONLY for the homes YOU specifically looked at, WITHIN a certain time frame, WITHIN a certain price range?   I dont recall you making all these caveats initially. 

Isnt it just easier to say that homes in Irvine fell around 30% in general?  LOL

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #578 on: December 05, 2018, 09:06:20 AM »
So it is then fair to say, the 10-15% price drop was ONLY for the homes YOU specifically looked at, WITHIN a certain time frame, WITHIN a certain price range?   I dont recall you making all these caveats initially. 
"Homes I specifically looked at" covers all of that. Go back and look at my posts, I've mentioned the type of stock, when, and how much on numerous occasions... you either have a short memory or are using your "I don't read long posts" rule.

And there is no certain time frame, because I was looking from 2008 on so nice try #3 on trying to disprove my opinion based on time frame.
Quote
Isnt it just easier to say that homes in Irvine fell around 30% in general?  LOL
No because that is "generalizing" and for many buyers, I don't think was 30% was the discount they got. Both IC and myself have explained that to you repeatedly. I find it funny you keep saying 30%, does 28% (by LiarLoan's extreme measure) not appeal to you?

And I keep answering your questions, why don't you answer mine?

For someone so data driven, do you actually think that was the discount most people who bought at that time got? Because median sales price does not necessarily mean median discount.

Please prove that a 28% drop from extreme high to extreme low median price means that a majority of the buyers in 2012 (which is when the extreme low happened) realized a 28% discount.

Then you will understand why a rolling average exists and more indicative of what type of discounts buyers could actually get.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
www.loansbyjw.com

Offline meccos12

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #579 on: December 05, 2018, 11:03:04 PM »
So it is then fair to say, the 10-15% price drop was ONLY for the homes YOU specifically looked at, WITHIN a certain time frame, WITHIN a certain price range?   I dont recall you making all these caveats initially. 
"Homes I specifically looked at" covers all of that. Go back and look at my posts, I've mentioned the type of stock, when, and how much on numerous occasions... you either have a short memory or are using your "I don't read long posts" rule.

Or you do not understand or can not identify ridicule. 

The worst part about all this is, regardless of what specific criteria you set to make price falls within 10-15% range, it STILL DIDNT.  In fact you even admitted on another post about seeing some homes drop 20%.  Furthermore I also listed several homes which clearly show much greater price drops, some even greater than 30%.  And yes, these were homes YOU specifically looked at because YOU linked them on your thread.  Although I am sure you are going to claim those homes do not count because you wanted a 3 CWG under 800K, so the price drops on those homes dont fall into your specific conditions you have set, right?

Isnt it just easier to say that homes in Irvine fell around 30% in general?  LOL
No because that is "generalizing" and for many buyers, I don't think was 30% was the discount they got. Both IC and myself have explained that to you repeatedly. I find it funny you keep saying 30%, does 28% (by LiarLoan's extreme measure) not appeal to you?

Surely discussing the general price change in Irvine is more helpful and useful than the discussion of prices in 3CWG homes in Irvine, less than 800K in which only YOU looked at. 

For someone so data driven, do you actually think that was the discount most people who bought at that time got? Because median sales price does not necessarily mean median discount.

Please prove that a 28% drop from extreme high to extreme low median price means that a majority of the buyers in 2012 (which is when the extreme low happened) realized a 28% discount.

Then you will understand why a rolling average exists and more indicative of what type of discounts buyers could actually get.


Did you just quote yourself in attempts to make me prove a claim I never made?  LOL   My claim is simple.  Peak to bottom price drops were around 30% (or 28%).  Some people got more than 30%, some people got less.  If the median price drop was 30%, then you can assume about half got more and half got less than 30% drop.  This is assuming the "n" is high, since the median and the mean become the same with high "n".

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #580 on: December 06, 2018, 08:01:31 AM »
Or you do not understand or can not identify ridicule. 
Back at you.

Quote
The worst part about all this is, regardless of what specific criteria you set to make price falls within 10-15% range, it STILL DIDNT.  In fact you even admitted on another post about seeing some homes drop 20%.  Furthermore I also listed several homes which clearly show much greater price drops, some even greater than 30%.  And yes, these were homes YOU specifically looked at because YOU linked them on your thread.  Although I am sure you are going to claim those homes do not count because you wanted a 3 CWG under 800K, so the price drops on those homes dont fall into your specific conditions you have set, right?

Wow. You finally get it. When I say homes that fit my criteria only dropped 10-15% that's exactly what I mean.

Quote
Surely discussing the general price change in Irvine is more helpful and useful than the discussion of prices in 3CWG homes in Irvine, less than 800K in which only YOU looked at. 
Agreed.

But that's not why I referred you to this thread. You asked me about the homes I Redin'd and actually personally looked at and here they are. You ask me for something, I give it to you and you still criticize... amazing.

Quote
For someone so data driven, do you actually think that was the discount most people who bought at that time got? Because median sales price does not necessarily mean median discount.

Please prove that a 28% drop from extreme high to extreme low median price means that a majority of the buyers in 2012 (which is when the extreme low happened) realized a 28% discount.

Then you will understand why a rolling average exists and more indicative of what type of discounts buyers could actually get.


Did you just quote yourself in attempts to make me prove a claim I never made?  LOL

I quoted myself because you didn't answer my question.

This is why you think everyone is using a strawman against you. There is nothing it my statement that says you made any claims.

There is a question: "Do you actually think...?"

And a challenge: "Please prove..."

Quote
My claim is simple.  Peak to bottom price drops were around 30% (or 28%).  Some people got more than 30%, some people got less.  If the median price drop was 30%, then you can assume about half got more and half got less than 30% drop.  This is assuming the "n" is high, since the median and the mean become the same with high "n".

This is flawed.

As I said before, just because the median price at the lowest low is 28% lower than the highest high, does not represent the actual discount they got. You don't know what homes were bought at that time, nor do you know if the homes bought at that low were the same ones that sold at the high... thus how can you equate that to a discount?

It's the same concept as to why my 10-15% off does not apply to Irvine as a whole because of specificity, you are looking at a single point in time (June 2012). This is why you need a rolling average to give you a better idea of what type of discounts people actually got.

Again... median sales price does not equal median discount. I'm not sure why you don't get that.

So let's stop...  you keep devaluing my experience and my opinion, which is fine, that's your right.

But don't try to paint what I'm saying as deceitful or false. This was what happened, it's documented in this thread and although you will try to pick it apart to justify some mission you have it's not going to change history or my opinion.

I believe you said this before, you can't trust opinions your read on an anonymous forum (although some of us know each other so there is some trust), so just avoid mine.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
www.loansbyjw.com

Offline meccos12

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #581 on: December 06, 2018, 06:30:57 PM »
When I say homes that fit my criteria only dropped 10-15% that's exactly what I mean.

LOL.  Yes, we get it.  The 10-15% drop was only seen in homes that are 3CWG, under 800K and most importantly, ONLY seen by you.  I have a feeling you are one of few who will see how useless it is to make such claims (and rather pointless in a discussion about general price changes).  I hope no one replies to tell me that 1 bed condos with only one shared walls and painted only in neutral colors, priced between 265-275K, which was ONLY seen by them dropped by 45-50%.   



As I said before, just because the median price at the lowest low is 28% lower than the highest high, does not represent the actual discount they got. You don't know what homes were bought at that time, nor do you know if the homes bought at that low were the same ones that sold at the high... thus how can you equate that to a discount?


The fallacy of your argument lies in the fact that you are taking this 28% price drop which is a number formulated from aggregate data and trying to implement that on a single individual home.  The fact that you are arguing that you wont know when a particular house was bought to know how much that house was discounted demonstrates this clearly.  A median price drop of 28% means that prices dropped about 28% in general, with half dropping more and half dropping less.  Furthermore, I would like to reiterate that I reposted 3 homes that you linked that were bought near peak and sold near lows, all which had price drops nearly or over 30%.   But you said they dont count because they were over 800k right? 




It's the same concept as to why my 10-15% off does not apply to Irvine as a whole because of specificity, you are looking at a single point in time (June 2012). This is why you need a rolling average to give you a better idea of what type of discounts people actually got.
In finding the bottom(or peak), you have to use a single point by definition. 
Moving averages does exactly that, averages things out.  It lessens the peak and increases the troughs.  This literally defeats the purpose of finding the highest % fall, which is the topic of this discussion.  Oh BTW, id love to see what type of moving average you used and how you calculated this moving average.  LOL



Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: 3-Car Garage Homes
« Reply #582 on: December 06, 2018, 08:10:14 PM »
I explained how I did that in the Housing Analysis thread which I also quoted here.

Irvinecommuter also showed you how to do that in the Housing bottom thread.

And again, drop does not equal discount which you contended in your previous post.

LOL
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
www.loansbyjw.com

 

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