Author Topic: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife  (Read 9894 times)

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Offline zovall

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2012, 09:18:56 AM »
I really like that article... nice job CZ.

It's funny because we do the same type of tracking... there have a been a few homes that we were "It closed that low?" or "I can't believe it got that high!".

The ones that close lower than we expect make us wonder if we should have offered but at least we know those will now be the comps for similar homes so we're not too bent over it.

The ones that close higher than what we expect give us relief in a sort of "That was above what we wanted to pay anyways".
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Offline IndieDev

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2012, 09:41:41 AM »
Some of those were horribly priced. I'm especially surprised at 256 Monroe #50. Someone actually paid $400,000 for that one within the past 6 months?

Stupidity.
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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2012, 09:57:06 AM »
I'm glad that I sold my Quail Hill Irvine condo when I did.  It closed in Oct. 2008 for $620k.  Today you can buy a condo with the same floor plan for $540k-$550k.  Looks like the buyer took a bit of a hit.
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Offline IndieDev

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2012, 10:32:47 AM »
Yeah that's about the hit many neighborhood are taking from 2008-2009 (around 15%).

I have a friend who owns a dental practice who bought in Westpark II for $630,000 for a 3/2 stucco box on a motorcourt, of course against my sane advice at the time.

Fast forward to 2011-2012, different home, same model, closed 2 months ago for $510,000. That's over $100,000 in lost equity right there. Equivalent to a slightly used...:



He drives a leased BMW 328i right now.  ???
"You are just a whining loser here hoping that Irvine house price can be 50% off so that you can afford a house here." - NonFCB
"690k... 20% down 4.25 int rate .36 dti and you need a salary of $ 90,500" - VillagePeople
"People are paying for something else, and labeling it "good schools". - PatStar

Offline waitin4ever

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2012, 02:02:52 PM »

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Offline akim997

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2012, 02:14:13 PM »
some of the numbers are a bit off.   For example, the $385K listing price for 97 sapphire is a bottom of the barrell short sale price, where as general area comps would slate it above $400.   overall though, good view points and it gets the point across.   

being a bargain hunter (not by choice, but by economic condition), we've looked at and bid on many houses.   i'd say most have retained their value (but we started looking in mid 2009), but some have dropped.   

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2012, 02:42:37 PM »
some of the numbers are a bit off.   For example, the $385K listing price for 97 sapphire is a bottom of the barrell short sale price, where as general area comps would slate it above $400.   overall though, good view points and it gets the point across.   

being a bargain hunter (not by choice, but by economic condition), we've looked at and bid on many houses.   i'd say most have retained their value (but we started looking in mid 2009), but some have dropped.   
Newer SFRs within the more desirable neighborhoods like Quail Hill, Turtle Ridge, and Northwood Pointe have seems to hold up the best in terms of pricing.  Attached condos have taken the biggest hits (like my former QH condo).
Martin Mania
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Offline irvinehomeshopper

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2012, 04:04:33 PM »
Attached home is taking a biggest hit because the new attached projects are much denser and the footage is similar to your condo. Benchmark price for a condo is lower because the project is just so much denser. The appraiser of your condo is comparing purely footage without taking into the account of the lower density often meant a higher quality of life with a fewer units. That is unfortunate but there is no tangible way to quantify external environment, privacy and quality of life. I prefer your condo over any of the new condo anytime.
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Offline zovall

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2012, 04:56:44 PM »
Really a fantastic post.
Thanks, Zovall & CZ.

Blog post here:
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/to-catch-a-falling-knife

This was all CZ's idea - great job CZ!  If anyone has other ideas or wants to write a blog post, let me know!

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Offline ahbrownell

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #10 on: February 02, 2012, 11:28:10 PM »
Great article. I found that informative and a great read. I forwarded it to 3 other people. Well done!

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Offline Cubic Zirconia

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2012, 05:55:26 PM »
Thank you everyone for the comments on the article. I tried replying today, and looks like commenting is closed..

Akim, I agree- Sapphire is a short sale.
But once it sells for that price, the equity sales will have a hard time going above 400k for that floor plan. The house seems to be in great condition for a short sale except for the location (261). Also, there are two more houses in the neighborhood- 77 Sapphire and 65 Sapphire listed below 400k. Same issue with them- location! So I am guessing the kind of sale didn't influence as much as the location influenced the price here.

17 Chandon is listed for 409k, and 18 Starwood, another approved short sale in the area away from the toll road is listed for 407k.
I think if listed now, 11 Sagamore would sell between 400-410k, nowhere near the 525k I had offered.
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Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2012, 06:04:44 PM »
Well done. A great journey back over the pitfalls that could have been.

Remember: Buy today before you get priced out forever! (insert Kool-Aid graphic OHHHH YEAH!!!)   8)

SGIP

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Offline Cubic Zirconia

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2012, 06:14:24 PM »
"This is the worst Irvine will ever see"
"Market is recovering, I just closed two sales at listing price"
"We got multiple offers already"
The Kool-Aid never stops! Drink up, and join the crowd :-) Maricopa homes are almost sold out..
I framed the pre-qualification letter and posted it at a conspicuous place under adequate lighting so that a guest with normal vision can see it and express substantial jealousy.

Offline irvinehomeshopper

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Re: [IHB] To Catch a Falling Knife
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2012, 06:36:37 PM »

 Maricopa homes are almost sold out..

I feel sorry for the homeowners having to see and hear dump trucks daily for the next 3 decades. Even the filthy trash from Santa Ana get dumped there.
"I can only imagine at a house warming party what a total embarrassment it would be to tell the guests that there is no tour because there is no more house to show you because you are standing in the only room in the house. "

 

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