OMG Pricing...

[roundcorners]

I was pretty impressed that this 1,340 sq ft "cottage" in Northwood Pointe went under contract at $450/sq ft.  

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/53-Middlebury-Ln-92620/home/4791258

This is a great location, but jeez -- $450?  I know Larry and friends on the blog are still pounding their chests about $250 psf (or less) but I don't see it happening.  They always point back to the 90's as a historical benchmark --- but methinks the desireability of Irvine has changed dramatically since the 90's.  I quiz my wife who lived here in the early 90's while attending UCI all the time.  She says "It was ok, but just ok back then --- but now its MUCH better".  BTW, she is Asian --- and does not want any Irvine substitute.  I don't think she is alone.  So let's review:

- Irvine is nicer than it was during the 90's busto
- Irvine is MUCH more desireable to FCB's and AACB's (Asian-American)
- The rest of Southern California has continued to get more sh**ty since the 90's --- increasing the premium on the nice areas

So in summary, IMO Irvine is not heading for $250 psf anytime soon.  Please debate.

CK.. I saw that home too, now just because it is pending, doesn't mean that it'll close at that price, does it?

[graphrix]

Alright... you Irvine lovers have drawn me out... Having grown up in OC and seeing Irvine develop into the community that it has...

First, Irvine was meh, in the late 80s and early 90s. It was barely developed and the product that was there... was U G LY! People with money wanted to live in Orange, N. Tustin, and Villa Park. The Chinese and Koreans moved in hard and fast. Ask acpme, and ask to see my yearbook that progressively became even more dark haired. FWIW, I thought this was cool and welcomed the culture and love my best friend who is Korean. The Asians with money were not moving to Irvine, but the Asians with work ethic were and they instilled that in their kids. As long as they didn't turn to gangs. Think the Triads and k-gangs aren't in Irvine... LOL... you are only fooling yourself.

During the mid-90s, when Bill Lyon and Bren's son (CalPac) took over the defaulted projects in Westpark and even Tustin Ranch, Irvine started to come into its own. The Marketplace became a major shopping center, and businesses were added to the area. The Spectrum started off as disaster, who the hell would go to an open air mall with crappy chains when you have Fashion Island? Well... it changed, along with the demographic. I had friends that moved to Westpark in the late 90s/early 00s, and I could see where this was going. I didn't care for it, a bunch of chains with Chilis and Blockbuster being in the shopping center, but many other people would love the convenience.

Anyway, I have the data from the 90s in Irvine, and it dropped pretty hard but not as hard as elsewhere. It stayed flat for many years, with a few drops that only a smart few could take advantage of (FCBers back then got screwed, take note). So buy when you you can buy the house you love at a price you can afford. I have always said that, buy the house YOU LOVE, THAT YOU CAN AFFORD.

$250 a sqft. in Irvine is a joke, and if it ever hits N. Tustin I will not let you know because I don't want the competition, but it isn't there yet. Make sure you adjust for inflation, because you can find homes in N. Tustin for those prices, Irvine is getting close... but it is not there yet. I think there will be deals to be had, but you better know your market... just know there is a serious shadow inventory... will that ever come to fruition... I don't know... The guberment is screwing those who are prudent.
[/rant]

[Anonymous]

Ah, graphrix makes me happy!!  This is almost like the good old days!

[irvinehomeowner]

I've priced homes in N. Tustin recently... and it's still pretty high there (obv: I'm looking for houses with 3-car garages).

I know graph understands that if he ever has a graphito.... what the appeal of Irvine is.

I still don't think it's worth what the current prices are. I would like to see $275/sf... but I'm not sure that's even possible. Maybe geotpf was right... this is the bottom. Heh.

[reason]

Back in the late 1980's. Around 1986 I attended a private college up on the hills near Turtle Rock. I still remembered looking down from the campus, I saw a bunch of people camping out on a patch of agricultural dirt. I honestly thought they were homeless people. I asked around as to what the heck are they doing down there. And a classmate informed me that, "They're camping out hoping to get on the priority list for the new homes." Not kidding.  I guess back then the internet wasn't in yet. And there was no email from the Irvine Co. =)

This was over 20 years ago. And things haven't changed much. Whenever new homes are introduced to the market in Irvine. There's a line of people ahead of the actual release.