Author Topic: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...  (Read 827240 times)

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Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3165 on: January 14, 2022, 09:34:49 PM »
My guess it will likely be flipped for $1-2m higher in the next 90 days. Kinda like this deal:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Laguna-Beach/2492-Glenneyre-St-92651/home/4934186

Huzzah! What a time to be a real-a-tur!!
My .02c

SGIP

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3166 on: January 14, 2022, 09:52:26 PM »
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Laguna-Beach/25-Lagunita-Dr-92651/home/4935469

What's the problem? She sold it less than 1 year and only with 3 price decreases!  ;D

She also was dual agent on this one so selling for 38% less but earning both sides commission means she came out ahead! Great agent  ;D

Looks as if she engineered a soft landing. Perfect. Is that what the FED going to try to achieve? Temper the housing and stock market, at the same time raise rate?

Powell will then get in front of the podium and say, "Folks, these rates are only transitory."  :). We will do whatever it takes to make everyday American feel good again. Dispite the high prices. ha ha

Offline Cares

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3167 on: January 14, 2022, 11:48:01 PM »
My guess it will likely be flipped for $1-2m higher in the next 90 days. Kinda like this deal:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Laguna-Beach/2492-Glenneyre-St-92651/home/4934186

Huzzah! What a time to be a real-a-tur!!

That is a nice looking home. I'm not really a fan of these multi-story layouts because it effectively is like a tri-level home but I like the look and the view from so many parts of the home.

Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3168 on: January 15, 2022, 07:17:06 AM »
@Cares. Yeah, not a great floorplan for either place. It's location, location, location - and view in these two cases. On that second property someone made close to $1m in about 120 days though. Congrats to those folks.

@Compressed-Village - Having lived here in OC during the last Fed engineered "soft landing" there really isn't such a thing (as
 I think you already know ;)  ) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/softlanding.asp

These were the times (Soft Landing: 1994-1995) that OC was in bankruptcy, the LA/OC employment base was crushed, and home prices were free-falling. This next soft landing will more likely for the nation, not just here, be as difficult as the 1979-1981 Volcker Fed one, chocked full of unanticipated effects that wont look like the last crash (2007-2010). My advice: hedge accordingly.
My .02c

SGIP

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3169 on: January 15, 2022, 08:33:56 AM »
I remember that. It was pretty ugly.

Some of these YouTuber have never experienced any down turn. The mantra was buy on the dip. That worked for a good run in the past decade. The more when that occur, the more convictions that it must happen this time again. On top of that, their tunnel vision into whatever channels that tell them that “This Time it will be different”.

The FED completely distorted valuation and pushing individuals and corporations into riskier and riskier path. Now with their megaphone sounding louder and louder that it will no longer supporting the market, no one believe them, and that they MUST continue this charade of easy monetary solutions.

The FED and current goonies call policy makers is making a huge mistake of giving money freely without real hard work and punish savers / responsible families.

This country was found on hard work, saving, and entrepreneur with risks taking. Talk to any millennial when you walking around your street when you go for a walk. All that they want to do is start a YouTube Chanel and day trade crypto and meme stocks.

The labor shortage is real, because these youngster resort to this. And they think that this is real productive contribution to society.

Let’s see if these animal spirit comes alive this time.

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Offline AW

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3170 on: January 15, 2022, 09:38:03 AM »
all sounds like FOMO to me honestly. At some point, consumers need to push the brakes and not buy. Whether it's overpriced homes, eating less beef and buying chicken instead, etc.
Housing is a little different, not buy, sure, but what if rents go up for those renting, go further out where it’s cheaper?  Some people want to live in a safer city or the hyped up schools and willing to pay premium.

All in all, this is a crazy time, the low inventory is crazy.  I don’t recall a time where you see entire villages with only a handful of listings, like right now there’s zero in Woodbury, at some point there were 0 in cypress village, and stone gate

Offline Danimal

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3171 on: January 15, 2022, 10:24:20 AM »
all sounds like FOMO to me honestly. At some point, consumers need to push the brakes and not buy. Whether it's overpriced homes, eating less beef and buying chicken instead, etc.
Housing is a little different, not buy, sure, but what if rents go up for those renting, go further out where it’s cheaper?  Some people want to live in a safer city or the hyped up schools and willing to pay premium.

All in all, this is a crazy time, the low inventory is crazy.  I don’t recall a time where you see entire villages with only a handful of listings, like right now there’s zero in Woodbury, at some point there were 0 in cypress village, and stone gate

You are right. I have lived in Woodbury for 14 years. Never have I seen 0 active listing in the village.  Housing supply is not going to ease up anytime soon.

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3172 on: January 15, 2022, 10:39:34 AM »
all sounds like FOMO to me honestly. At some point, consumers need to push the brakes and not buy. Whether it's overpriced homes, eating less beef and buying chicken instead, etc.
Housing is a little different, not buy, sure, but what if rents go up for those renting, go further out where it’s cheaper?  Some people want to live in a safer city or the hyped up schools and willing to pay premium.

All in all, this is a crazy time, the low inventory is crazy.  I don’t recall a time where you see entire villages with only a handful of listings, like right now there’s zero in Woodbury, at some point there were 0 in cypress village, and stone gate

You are right. I have lived in Woodbury for 14 years. Never have I seen 0 active listing in the village.  Housing supply is not going to ease up anytime soon.

Rising rates will move anyone who wanted to buy (and I bet there were lots of prospective buyers thinking there would be lots of homes listed after the holidays) to rush in. Resales can close quicker than new homes, so they may benefit for anyone who is really worried about rising rates several months out.

I'm thinking there would be more available were it not for the omicron wave but if it pushes prices up, then comps are higher once this batch of homes close.

Stock market could force the fed to reverse course. Maybe lots of homes come up then or maybe not. Depends on if people have a place to move to, imo.

I'm thinking if prices continue higher, people will move to a cheaper area or buy a smaller place rather than give up.

If rates keep rising it's more incentive for those who own to keep their house with a low mortgage rate which of course isn't going to help those wanting to buy.

Anything on the lower end of the market is going to be the toughest to buy between first time buyers, maybe one step up buyers and those looking to downsize. You need those downsizers to give up their houses so homeowners downstream can move up and give up their smaller homes.

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Offline Irvinehomeseeker

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3173 on: January 15, 2022, 11:30:46 AM »
@Cares. Yeah, not a great floorplan for either place. It's location, location, location - and view in these two cases. On that second property someone made close to $1m in about 120 days though. Congrats to those folks.

@Compressed-Village - Having lived here in OC during the last Fed engineered "soft landing" there really isn't such a thing (as
 I think you already know ;)  ) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/softlanding.asp

These were the times (Soft Landing: 1994-1995) that OC was in bankruptcy, the LA/OC employment base was crushed, and home prices were free-falling. This next soft landing will more likely for the nation, not just here, be as difficult as the 1979-1981 Volcker Fed one, chocked full of unanticipated effects that wont look like the last crash (2007-2010). My advice: hedge accordingly.
What would be the  best way to hedge in today's scenario, especially if you have bought or going to buy in today high price market?

Offline CalBears96

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3174 on: January 15, 2022, 11:51:53 AM »
@Cares. Yeah, not a great floorplan for either place. It's location, location, location - and view in these two cases. On that second property someone made close to $1m in about 120 days though. Congrats to those folks.

@Compressed-Village - Having lived here in OC during the last Fed engineered "soft landing" there really isn't such a thing (as
 I think you already know ;)  ) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/softlanding.asp

These were the times (Soft Landing: 1994-1995) that OC was in bankruptcy, the LA/OC employment base was crushed, and home prices were free-falling. This next soft landing will more likely for the nation, not just here, be as difficult as the 1979-1981 Volcker Fed one, chocked full of unanticipated effects that wont look like the last crash (2007-2010). My advice: hedge accordingly.
What would be the  best way to hedge in today's scenario, especially if you have bought or going to buy in today high price market?

If you bought the home as primary residence, then there's really nothing to do.

For me, I'm going to sell both my rental in Lake Elsinore (lease expires end of May) and my current home in Eastvale when I move into my new home in Irvine this June. I've already had the bad experience of owning the Lake Elsinore home for the past 15 years while it was under water all this time after moving to Eastvale. So I don't want to own real estate again other than the primary residence.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3175 on: January 15, 2022, 12:02:04 PM »
The problem isn't a lack of inventory, it's the huge buyer demand.  The reason why there's so little inventory on the market is because as soon as new listings come onto the market they get 10+20+ and the home flies into escrow within days which means that there's not enough time for inventory to build up.  I believe that part of the FOMO is definitely driven by the fear from further price increases as well as the fear of rates going up.  I'm seeing this is every part of the market from the low end to the middle market to the high end. 
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3176 on: January 15, 2022, 12:13:22 PM »
@Cares. Yeah, not a great floorplan for either place. It's location, location, location - and view in these two cases. On that second property someone made close to $1m in about 120 days though. Congrats to those folks.

@Compressed-Village - Having lived here in OC during the last Fed engineered "soft landing" there really isn't such a thing (as
 I think you already know ;)  ) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/softlanding.asp

These were the times (Soft Landing: 1994-1995) that OC was in bankruptcy, the LA/OC employment base was crushed, and home prices were free-falling. This next soft landing will more likely for the nation, not just here, be as difficult as the 1979-1981 Volcker Fed one, chocked full of unanticipated effects that wont look like the last crash (2007-2010). My advice: hedge accordingly.
What would be the  best way to hedge in today's scenario, especially if you have bought or going to buy in today high price market?

If you bought the home as primary residence, then there's really nothing to do.

For me, I'm going to sell both my rental in Lake Elsinore (lease expires end of May) and my current home in Eastvale when I move into my new home in Irvine this June. I've already had the bad experience of owning the Lake Elsinore home for the past 15 years while it was under water all this time after moving to Eastvale. So I don't want to own real estate again other than the primary residence.


Borrow on the long as low rate as you can

https://www.jasonhartman.com/cw-936-fbf-inflation-induced-debt-destruction-as-an-investment-strategy/

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Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3177 on: January 15, 2022, 12:14:26 PM »

@Compressed-Village - Truth.

@Irvinehomeseeker - your question is well beyond my pay grade. Never, ever, ever take financial advice from a lender. By the way... let me add this: NEVER.

@ All others: A good majority of Irvine and surrounding area inventory issues frankly stem from vast numbers of FCB who have invested for profit, not schools or personal safety. It's not illegal of course, but impactful nonetheless. All of the "see through" homes (those without window treatments) with front door stoops littered with drop off advertisements, those that remain dark after the sun sets - represent lost inventory. There are a few new build tracts just outside of Irvine with about 20% - possibly higher - of sold units in this condition.

Imagine how sales and price distortion might be impacted if at least among new builds there was a 10-15, perhaps 20% increase of available units?

Sorry that I lead this off topic in the thread. Perhaps it's time to open up the discussion elsewhere.
My .02c

SGIP

Offline eyephone

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3178 on: January 15, 2022, 12:36:02 PM »
@Cares. Yeah, not a great floorplan for either place. It's location, location, location - and view in these two cases. On that second property someone made close to $1m in about 120 days though. Congrats to those folks.

@Compressed-Village - Having lived here in OC during the last Fed engineered "soft landing" there really isn't such a thing (as
 I think you already know ;)  ) https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/softlanding.asp

These were the times (Soft Landing: 1994-1995) that OC was in bankruptcy, the LA/OC employment base was crushed, and home prices were free-falling. This next soft landing will more likely for the nation, not just here, be as difficult as the 1979-1981 Volcker Fed one, chocked full of unanticipated effects that wont look like the last crash (2007-2010). My advice: hedge accordingly.
What would be the  best way to hedge in today's scenario, especially if you have bought or going to buy in today high price market?

If you bought the home as primary residence, then there's really nothing to do.

For me, I'm going to sell both my rental in Lake Elsinore (lease expires end of May) and my current home in Eastvale when I move into my new home in Irvine this June. I've already had the bad experience of owning the Lake Elsinore home for the past 15 years while it was under water all this time after moving to Eastvale. So I don't want to own real estate again other than the primary residence.

That is why some people own reits. Let other people be responsible for the tenants, repairs and maintenance. While you just sit back and collect.

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3179 on: January 15, 2022, 04:34:59 PM »

@Compressed-Village - Truth.

@Irvinehomeseeker - your question is well beyond my pay grade. Never, ever, ever take financial advice from a lender. By the way... let me add this: NEVER.

@ All others: A good majority of Irvine and surrounding area inventory issues frankly stem from vast numbers of FCB who have invested for profit, not schools or personal safety. It's not illegal of course, but impactful nonetheless. All of the "see through" homes (those without window treatments) with front door stoops littered with drop off advertisements, those that remain dark after the sun sets - represent lost inventory. There are a few new build tracts just outside of Irvine with about 20% - possibly higher - of sold units in this condition.

Imagine how sales and price distortion might be impacted if at least among new builds there was a 10-15, perhaps 20% increase of available units?

Sorry that I lead this off topic in the thread. Perhaps it's time to open up the discussion elsewhere.
This is so true. FCB is dumping A LOT of money in real estate in Irvine and it's jacking up the prices there. I've looked at a lot of homes that closed in Irvine and a bunch are FCB. Pretty easy to know when you can't even find them on LinkedIn. Also, a lot of them are buying homes and putting it back in the market in 6months to one year time frame. So much for CCP restricting the amount of money outflows to the US.

 

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