Author Topic: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...  (Read 846649 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2907
  • -Received: 2269
  • Posts: 11182
  • Gender: Male
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3150 on: January 11, 2022, 09:42:41 AM »
Now the new question for this thread is how high can we go?

30 year fixed up to 4.5 - 4.75 in 2023?



Not gonna happen.  We might top out around 4% +/- a bit before heading back down.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA DRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!
Have license, will travel!

The following member(s) thanked this post:


Offline Soylent Green Is People

  • Abiding Dude. Housing focused NMLS Licensed
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1123
  • -Received: 1290
  • Posts: 2791
  • Gender: Male
  • Isaiah 58: 6-11
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3151 on: January 11, 2022, 10:14:39 AM »
Agreed.

The Fed controls the direction of rates they can manipulate, but not all interest rates. ARM indexes will rise as they are more closely tied to Fed Funds, etc. Loan rates have been kept low not solely due to Feds pushing some rates lower, but their purchasing of an ocean of Agency mortgage paper. That ocean is going to shrink a bit, but it's not going to dry up. A "mid 4" 30 year fixed rate would be problematic and we live in a "problem free" environment. Contravening intervention by the Fed would occur - a restart of significant MBS buys - at a 4.25% or higher consumer rate.
My .02c

SGIP

Offline Cares

  • Real Estate Broker & Mortgage Loan Originator
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 14
  • -Received: 264
  • Posts: 1369
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3152 on: January 11, 2022, 10:39:54 AM »
All these interest rate increases have happened so far without any Fed rate hike yet. Fed has signaled today that they will rate hike. I don't know how high we will go but I'm doubtful that we will be much higher than 4% for primary purchase.

Offline CalBears96

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 37
  • -Received: 137
  • Posts: 1220
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3153 on: January 11, 2022, 11:15:08 AM »
All these interest rate increases have happened so far without any Fed rate hike yet. Fed has signaled today that they will rate hike. I don't know how high we will go but I'm doubtful that we will be much higher than 4% for primary purchase.

Did the interest rate increases happen in anticipation of the Fed rate hike?

Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 390
  • -Received: 345
  • Posts: 2481
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3154 on: January 11, 2022, 11:21:19 AM »
To really test the FED rate hike policy. The stock market will need to correct 20 % or more. Then we will see IF our FED stick to their words.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2022, 11:53:44 AM by Compressed-Village »

Offline Cares

  • Real Estate Broker & Mortgage Loan Originator
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 14
  • -Received: 264
  • Posts: 1369
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3155 on: January 11, 2022, 11:54:08 AM »
All these interest rate increases have happened so far without any Fed rate hike yet. Fed has signaled today that they will rate hike. I don't know how high we will go but I'm doubtful that we will be much higher than 4% for primary purchase.

Did the interest rate increases happen in anticipation of the Fed rate hike?

It's like asking someone to predict the stock market...Fed has signaled rate hikes due to inflation. Rates also go up with a "booming" economy because investors rather invest in stocks than bonds. So if there's a good jobs report then typically mortgage bonds go down and interest rates go up. There are so many levers which affect a bond market and everyone has theories but I don't think any 1 person has the full picture.

Offline Soylent Green Is People

  • Abiding Dude. Housing focused NMLS Licensed
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1123
  • -Received: 1290
  • Posts: 2791
  • Gender: Male
  • Isaiah 58: 6-11
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3156 on: January 11, 2022, 12:53:35 PM »
Yes, rates and stocks will change.  That's the only thing you can count on. Will the changes be up or down? That's a pseudoscientific question only the gods can answer with any degree of certainty.

The Fed slowed their MBS purchases in November 2021 to present, a significant driving influence of higher mortgage rates. If we get a 15+ correction in stonks that looks like it will drift towards 20-25%, expect to read how the Fed plans a bump back to $40b per month of MBS purchases as a way to push rates back down.

My .02c
My .02c

SGIP

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 812
  • -Received: 521
  • Posts: 2614
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3157 on: January 11, 2022, 02:11:18 PM »
Continuing their purchases of Treasuries while letting MBS ride out the storm would be another way to "split the difference"; signaling support to the stock market while letting the overheated housing market take a much needed breather.

Offline Cares

  • Real Estate Broker & Mortgage Loan Originator
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 14
  • -Received: 264
  • Posts: 1369
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3158 on: January 14, 2022, 02:55:47 PM »
Another day of red for mortgage bonds. Fell below the support level of 102.344 and continued to slide downwards towards the next support level of 102.198. 10 year treasuries moved upwards and broke 1.71% towards the next ceiling at 1.82%.

3% coupon ended the day at 102.22 and the 10 year ended at 1.79%. These are both strong indicators that rates are just going to go up up up!

Some purchase loans for primary homes are the same as what people were getting for investment properties just 6 months ago now. I have seen so many re-pricing and lock alerts as of late that it is almost expected on a daily basis now.

Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 390
  • -Received: 345
  • Posts: 2481
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3159 on: January 14, 2022, 04:22:17 PM »
These moves, psychologically fanning urgency for buyers to move all the quicker, to buy now more than ever.

Of course we are talking about buyers that qualified and ready to buy.

On the sell side, builders this go round would not reduce price when rates goes higher because their cost of labors and raw materials substantially higher tomorrow than today.

Resale, homeowners are not motivated to reduce price, because tomorrow price will goes higher than today.

#TOUGHTIME

Offline Ready2Downsize

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 15
  • -Received: 266
  • Posts: 1830
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3160 on: January 14, 2022, 04:56:26 PM »
These moves, psychologically fanning urgency for buyers to move all the quicker, to buy now more than ever.

Of course we are talking about buyers that qualified and ready to buy.

On the sell side, builders this go round would not reduce price when rates goes higher because their cost of labors and raw materials substantially higher tomorrow than today.

Resale, homeowners are not motivated to reduce price, because tomorrow price will goes higher than today.

#TOUGHTIME

The cost to build the homes is going up. Sherwin Williams is raising paint prices 12%. I'm sure everything else is rising too.

Offline sleepy5136

  • O.C. Resident
  • ***
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 7
  • -Received: 56
  • Posts: 818
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3161 on: January 14, 2022, 05:52:04 PM »
all sounds like FOMO to me honestly. At some point, consumers need to push the brakes and not buy. Whether it's overpriced homes, eating less beef and buying chicken instead, etc. When that day comes, I'm sure it's possible we will worry about deflation. Businesses will get hurt bad during those times.

Of course that all changes if there is more free money like child tax credits. So far, no free money. But California might give stimulus checks again this year...

Offline Soylent Green Is People

  • Abiding Dude. Housing focused NMLS Licensed
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1123
  • -Received: 1290
  • Posts: 2791
  • Gender: Male
  • Isaiah 58: 6-11
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3162 on: January 14, 2022, 06:08:05 PM »
At Trader Joes today and some of the shoppers were openly grousing about how expensive things have gotten. Weird to have people just blurt this kind of thing out.... but this is the world we live in today.

Remember, a 3x handle rate would have been unthinkable in the 2000's. We've been blessed for what is an ocean of time with low rates. Will this change? Sure, will things spin out of control? Doubtful. You'll see prices come down as housing fever begins to break. It's all part of the RE cycle.

@Cares may confirm this, but I've seen 89.9 LPMI pricing really "pucker up" over the last few weeks. New Years Day it seemed like many lenders began to move FICO thresholds up from 700 to 720, 720 to 740 etc. Methinks the market is bracing for a price reset overall (yes, "Irvine is different" - but not immune).

Closing this post with a gem - scroll down to the price history. YOW! Talk about an agent not knowing how to price their listing!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Laguna-Beach/25-Lagunita-Dr-92651/home/4935469


My .02c

SGIP

Offline Compressed-Village

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 390
  • -Received: 345
  • Posts: 2481
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3163 on: January 14, 2022, 06:50:01 PM »
all sounds like FOMO to me honestly. At some point, consumers need to push the brakes and not buy. Whether it's overpriced homes, eating less beef and buying chicken instead, etc. When that day comes, I'm sure it's possible we will worry about deflation. Businesses will get hurt bad during those times.

Of course that all changes if there is more free money like child tax credits. So far, no free money. But California might give stimulus checks again this year...

Really? More free money will solve every problems. You have to join the FED and be one of the governor. Ha ha

Really

Offline Cares

  • Real Estate Broker & Mortgage Loan Originator
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 14
  • -Received: 264
  • Posts: 1369
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3164 on: January 14, 2022, 07:42:42 PM »
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Laguna-Beach/25-Lagunita-Dr-92651/home/4935469

What's the problem? She sold it less than 1 year and only with 3 price decreases!  ;D

She also was dual agent on this one so selling for 38% less but earning both sides commission means she came out ahead! Great agent  ;D

 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


Recent Posts

Re: Fresco @ Eastwood Village by Yousr
[Today at 02:36:13 PM]


Re: New communities in Portola Springs by OCtoSV
[Today at 12:50:52 PM]


Re: New communities in Portola Springs by CalBears96
[Today at 12:17:18 PM]


Re: Housing Analysis by USCTrojanCPA
[Today at 12:08:45 PM]


Re: Housing Analysis by talkirvine
[Today at 11:31:16 AM]

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2022, SimplePortal