Author Topic: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...  (Read 829867 times)

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Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3135 on: January 06, 2022, 10:42:13 AM »
With the amount of occupancy fraud going on today, it's surprising that it's taking this long to reign in the second home market. The High Balance changes are on the one hand a mystery - who can qualify at median income???? Puh-leeez. This is a fig leaf for a covering reason more than anything else. My theory is that the Agencies want to push risk to the Banks or Non-QM lenders. If values fall, they will be the ones taking the hit, not FNMA/FHLMC.

As for investment property reform, if the Agencies AND the Banks were limited to 3 Non-Owner Occupied loans (4 total including Primary) purchase or refinance, significantly reduced tax breaks on investment property, and made it next to impossible for SFR REITS (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4411292-single-family-rental-reits-burbs-are-hot) and other corporate structures to profitably own rental SFR's, then and only then you'll see some re-balancing of housing stock. There are plenty of homes to buy - if they were put on the market, but landlords have no incentives to do so. If there was a 1 time capital gain exemption of real significance, my guess is that many rentals would sell. If they don't, and if prices were to decline, these kind of tax law changes might represent a missed opportunity for sellers to get out while they were ahead.

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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3136 on: January 06, 2022, 11:46:50 AM »
Interest rates are headed back to early pandemic levels. 

Mortgage rates hit their highest point since May 2020
Quote
As 2022 kicked off, the 30-year mortgage rate average jumped to its highest level since May of 2020

The 30-year fixed rate came in at 3.22% for the weekly period ending Jan. 6, up 11 basis points from 3.11% seven days earlier, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The latest rate is more than 50 basis points above the first-week average from 2021, when it dropped to a record low of 2.65%.

https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/mortgage-rates-hit-their-highest-point-in-9-months

The problem is, this information is already outdated.  Rates have gone even higher since lenders were surveyed just last week.

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3137 on: January 06, 2022, 02:07:48 PM »
I think there was a good portion of homeowners using 2nd home loans and short term rentals to skirt investment property occupancy. Whether or not this is significant I don't know but I know it was happening.

And yes rates were already at 52W highs during the end of 2021 and it's gone even higher. I think around 1% from the lowest for interest rate.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3138 on: January 06, 2022, 07:28:36 PM »
I like to see it hit 5 or low 6%

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3139 on: January 06, 2022, 09:07:13 PM »
I'm not a very good economist but wouldn't higher interest rates further drive up rental prices? Since homes are less affordable for renters looking to buy then it drives more demand towards renting...

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3140 on: January 06, 2022, 09:45:02 PM »
I'm not a very good economist but wouldn't higher interest rates further drive up rental prices? Since homes are less affordable for renters looking to buy then it drives more demand towards renting...

If the fed overdoes it like Volker did (on purpose to control inflation), then a recession happens and people lose their jobs, move in with other people etc and demand for rentals drops.

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3141 on: January 07, 2022, 06:57:22 AM »
I'm not a very good economist but wouldn't higher interest rates further drive up rental prices? Since homes are less affordable for renters looking to buy then it drives more demand towards renting...

If the fed overdoes it like Volker did (on purpose to control inflation), then a recession happens and people lose their jobs, move in with other people etc and demand for rentals drops.

Much of what the FED do is psychology, They can say alot but do little. I would not be suprise if the market spook on the first rate hike and crater the entire everything bubbles. So when this happen they will react. The FED is a reactive entity. They never preemptive anything. Of course market will react to this quickly and raise rate much higher when FED funds rate will sit at 1%. When that happen it would be further buying opportunity. Keeping my powder dry.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3142 on: January 07, 2022, 07:17:30 AM »
I am not worry about renter pool. We are severly under supply for avaialable units for rental. Rising rate will pull things back in term of cost for building and cost of replacement hopefully comes down, over time. The renters will have a tough few years with rising rate and rising rental costs.

Rent control expanding further in many places.

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3143 on: January 07, 2022, 09:22:36 AM »
Seeing red in mortgage bonds....red rum red rum....

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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3144 on: January 07, 2022, 09:49:45 AM »

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3145 on: January 07, 2022, 03:47:39 PM »
Ha ha, the freaking going to start soon enough.

Those that plan for this downturn will be handsomely rewarded.

Make sure to pack enough for rough water ahead.  :)

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3146 on: January 10, 2022, 05:02:28 PM »
More days of red for bond markets. Many bond tracking sites have swapped to tracking the 3% coupon now instead of the 2.5%. It felt like just yesterday when they went from 2% to 2.5%.

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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3147 on: January 10, 2022, 06:25:27 PM »
More days of red for bond markets. Many bond tracking sites have swapped to tracking the 3% coupon now instead of the 2.5%. It felt like just yesterday when they went from 2% to 2.5%.

inventory is super low, mortgage rate is jumping, poor buyers in today's market...
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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3148 on: January 10, 2022, 11:28:49 PM »
Isn't this where people say that home prices are going to go down? :)
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Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3149 on: January 11, 2022, 09:36:56 AM »
Now the new question for this thread is how high can we go?

30 year fixed up to 4.5 - 4.75 in 2023?


 

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