Author Topic: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...  (Read 863445 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Soylent Green Is People

  • Abiding Dude. Housing focused NMLS Licensed
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1128
  • -Received: 1294
  • Posts: 2801
  • Gender: Male
  • Isaiah 58: 6-11
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3495 on: June 13, 2022, 04:48:29 PM »
Yeah, it was a rough and tumble Monday.

Worse than Friday pricing at 6 AM, a change for the worse around 11 AM, and a change for the worse AFTER the market closed! I've seen 3x rate change days before, but they aren't that common. Average rates went from mid 5's to 6 overnight. Want cash out? Add .75 to 1.0 to any price you see for a purchase - example: Cash out Conforming Non-Owner was priced 2 weeks ago in the low 7's. Today, Cash out Conforming OWNER OCCUPIED is in the low 7's. Agency paper is a blowout now.

Non-Agency / Portfolio money that Banks have are still in the high 4's for now with ARM's starting to rise to the  mid to high 4's as well. Pricing is mitigated with high FICO's, lower loan to values, pre-existing bank relationship or "move money" options. There's more trigger points that can improve portfolio money rates than Agency rates.

What's next? Today (6/13/2022) there are roughly 335 Irvine area homes listed for sale, not counting new construction per Redfin. 4 of those homes have had price reductions in the last 24 hours. We may want to revisit these figures and methodology on Friday to see how this might change.  My guess is that the price reductions in the last 3 days will be about 20-25 units (5-6% of available housing stock). Builders are going to start offering rate discounts if you use their lender, closing cost credits, Co-operating Realtor bonuses, and upgrade benefits in lieu of price reductions. If anyone is currently in escrow and expecting an October - December close, keep your ear to the ground. If you hear a new buyer getting big concessions to put a deposit down, you can ask for some of these benefits as well.

Let's see if it's a .75 hike Wednesday, or the real shock to the system  - a 1.0 rate move (doubtful IMHO, but who knows....) and survey the landscape at that time for a way through this mess.

My .02c
« Last Edit: June 13, 2022, 05:02:52 PM by Soylent Green Is People »
My .02c

SGIP

Offline The California Court Company

  • What's this?
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 407
  • -Received: 393
  • Posts: 2170
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3496 on: June 14, 2022, 02:51:37 PM »
looks like it is still goin up today, not as much as Friday and Monday.

Also, Redfin is laying off 8% of staff…
"Should any Person come into contact with such fruit, soil or groundwater, such Person is advised to wash thoroughly with soap and water and seek immediate medical attention"-Augusta Disclosure, Tustin Legacy

"You'll probably be able to buy a 4BR detached home in Quail Hill for $150,000."-IndieDev

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2944
  • -Received: 2297
  • Posts: 11281
  • Gender: Male
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3497 on: June 14, 2022, 03:32:17 PM »
looks like it is still goin up today, not as much as Friday and Monday.

Also, Redfin is laying off 8% of staff…

Compass (the brokerage) laying off 10% of their staff.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA DRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!
Have license, will travel!

Offline The California Court Company

  • What's this?
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 407
  • -Received: 393
  • Posts: 2170
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3498 on: June 15, 2022, 11:27:21 AM »
75 bps hike, has this been priced in already?
"Should any Person come into contact with such fruit, soil or groundwater, such Person is advised to wash thoroughly with soap and water and seek immediate medical attention"-Augusta Disclosure, Tustin Legacy

"You'll probably be able to buy a 4BR detached home in Quail Hill for $150,000."-IndieDev

Offline CalBears96

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 39
  • -Received: 147
  • Posts: 1308
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3499 on: June 15, 2022, 11:48:10 AM »
75 bps hike, has this been priced in already?

Yeah, it 75bps hike has been expected after the latest inflation numbers. That's why the market is responding positively.

Offline Liar Loan

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 818
  • -Received: 529
  • Posts: 2674
  • Don't fight the Fed.
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3500 on: July 20, 2022, 12:31:49 PM »
It must be the supply shortage!!

Mortgage demand drops to a 22-year low as higher interest rates and inflation crush homebuyers

The pain in the mortgage market is only getting worse as higher interest rates and inflation hammer American consumers.

Mortgage demand fell more than 6% last week compared with the previous week, hitting the lowest level since 2000, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 7% for the week and were 19% lower than the same week in 2021.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/20/mortgage-demand-drops-to-lowest-level-in-22-years.html

Offline irvinehomeowner

  • The Unicorn Hunter
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2782
  • -Received: 4105
  • Posts: 23938
  • 3CWG
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3501 on: July 20, 2022, 05:02:35 PM »
Now that it's 1pm... I have to tell everyone it's 1pm... because I knew it would be 1pm eventually!!
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
3CWG: 3-Car Wide Garage
FCB: Foreign Cash Buyer
I recommend:
www.irvinerealtorsite.com
member: Soylent Green Is People (loans/refis)

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2944
  • -Received: 2297
  • Posts: 11281
  • Gender: Male
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3502 on: July 22, 2022, 02:14:40 PM »
The 10-year bond rate is back down to 2.75% and show a head-n-showers formation which may mean that the rate may head back to 2.50%.  Not sure where the MBS market is, but I got a few emails from lenders that they are back to around 4% for a 30-year fixed jumbo loan with no points.  The higher the Fed raises rates the more the yield curve will invert with lower long term bond rates go.  I'll look to refi into a 3.50% 30-year fixed or 10 year ARM jumbo loan this year or next year.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA DRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!
Have license, will travel!

Offline Ready2Downsize

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 15
  • -Received: 269
  • Posts: 1861
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3503 on: July 22, 2022, 04:31:52 PM »
The 10-year bond rate is back down to 2.75% and show a head-n-showers formation which may mean that the rate may head back to 2.50%.  Not sure where the MBS market is, but I got a few emails from lenders that they are back to around 4% for a 30-year fixed jumbo loan with no points.  The higher the Fed raises rates the more the yield curve will invert with lower long term bond rates go.  I'll look to refi into a 3.50% 30-year fixed or 10 year ARM jumbo loan this year or next year.
My daughter has a 4% loan (just closed in May). Unless it's no cost not sure it makes a huge difference for her since she is a few 100K under jumbo loans but I told her to get a mortgage broker and have her papers ready in case they fall one day bigly.

If the 10 year breaks 270 it could head back to 200. Not sure if it's because inflation is tamed or economy is just going to be that bad or both. Gas is $4.28 here now. So same thing....... why is that? Economy is just headed downhill??? In any case, looks like rates are done going up.

Offline Soylent Green Is People

  • Abiding Dude. Housing focused NMLS Licensed
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 1128
  • -Received: 1294
  • Posts: 2801
  • Gender: Male
  • Isaiah 58: 6-11
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3504 on: July 22, 2022, 06:40:14 PM »
A portion of this rate move is artificial and may not last very long. There are two significant sources of broker funds today - Rocket Mortgage and UWM. UWM is run by a pretty innovative guy, Matt Ishbia, who took Ray Croc's advice - " If I see my competition drowning, I'd shove a hose down their throat and turn on the water...." 

An article from June 2022, but still the main reason for what's going on. UWM is doing their best to drown the competition.  It's not sustainable, as anyone burning cash like that has only so much of it to set alight.  Rocket is going to follow suit, as will loanDepot and other wholesale companies until all that's left is ash, and perhaps 1-2 survivors.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/uwm-drops-rates-50-to-100-basis-points-in-bid-for-brokers/#:~:text=UWM%20dropped%20rates%20by%2050,maximum%20of%2040%20basis%20points.


So where are mortgage rates REALLY headed? No one knows, and the Fed is still going to throw another .75 rate hike on the bonfire soon. Here's the link to Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. As of 7/18 the average standard conforming closed loan rate was 5.54 at a cost of about .80 in fees. Although this was from 7/18, it's really from 7/1 because the pricing is for closed loans which locked around 7/1.

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

Watch this site as it's reliable, then compare with what's being sold on the street level via Bankrate, Mortgage News Daily, and other comparative sites.

My ..02c
My .02c

SGIP

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2944
  • -Received: 2297
  • Posts: 11281
  • Gender: Male
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3505 on: July 22, 2022, 06:41:02 PM »
The 10-year bond rate is back down to 2.75% and show a head-n-showers formation which may mean that the rate may head back to 2.50%.  Not sure where the MBS market is, but I got a few emails from lenders that they are back to around 4% for a 30-year fixed jumbo loan with no points.  The higher the Fed raises rates the more the yield curve will invert with lower long term bond rates go.  I'll look to refi into a 3.50% 30-year fixed or 10 year ARM jumbo loan this year or next year.
My daughter has a 4% loan (just closed in May). Unless it's no cost not sure it makes a huge difference for her since she is a few 100K under jumbo loans but I told her to get a mortgage broker and have her papers ready in case they fall one day bigly.

If the 10 year breaks 270 it could head back to 200. Not sure if it's because inflation is tamed or economy is just going to be that bad or both. Gas is $4.28 here now. So same thing....... why is that? Economy is just headed downhill??? In any case, looks like rates are done going up.

Yeah, the technicals look like bond rates are heading lower but it's no surprise given that economic indicators are pointing to a material slowdown.  I think if the Fed raises rates 100bps next week and/or CPI inflation starts rolling over I can see the 10-year bond rates come down to around 2.50% in the short term.
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA DRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!
Have license, will travel!

Offline Ready2Downsize

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 15
  • -Received: 269
  • Posts: 1861
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3506 on: July 23, 2022, 11:15:27 AM »
A portion of this rate move is artificial and may not last very long. There are two significant sources of broker funds today - Rocket Mortgage and UWM. UWM is run by a pretty innovative guy, Matt Ishbia, who took Ray Croc's advice - " If I see my competition drowning, I'd shove a hose down their throat and turn on the water...." 

An article from June 2022, but still the main reason for what's going on. UWM is doing their best to drown the competition.  It's not sustainable, as anyone burning cash like that has only so much of it to set alight.  Rocket is going to follow suit, as will loanDepot and other wholesale companies until all that's left is ash, and perhaps 1-2 survivors.

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/uwm-drops-rates-50-to-100-basis-points-in-bid-for-brokers/#:~:text=UWM%20dropped%20rates%20by%2050,maximum%20of%2040%20basis%20points.


So where are mortgage rates REALLY headed? No one knows, and the Fed is still going to throw another .75 rate hike on the bonfire soon. Here's the link to Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey. As of 7/18 the average standard conforming closed loan rate was 5.54 at a cost of about .80 in fees. Although this was from 7/18, it's really from 7/1 because the pricing is for closed loans which locked around 7/1.

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

Watch this site as it's reliable, then compare with what's being sold on the street level via Bankrate, Mortgage News Daily, and other comparative sites.

My ..02c

That's why I told my daughter to get your papers in and be ready in case it's just a pop lower for a day or two.

Being in the area for so long, something that has been uncanny is Tustin's ability to lolligag and manage to finally get things built at market tops, completely missing the upside and ending up with homes sitting. Happened in 1989 (tustin ranch), 2000's (columbus square), 2016 (kind of flatish market, Legacy) and now with the Landing.

Offline qwerty

  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2785
  • -Received: 1861
  • Posts: 8089
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3507 on: July 23, 2022, 11:27:45 AM »
So the key message/leading indicator is if Tustin is building, the market is about to reach its peak and come down. Sounds true but not sure it applies to Greenwood. Anybody who bought I. Greenwood in 2016 did very well. If I remember correctly the Stanford homes, which  the biggest homes were going for 1,275,000 to high 1,300,000’s

Offline USCTrojanCPA

  • Your CPA Realtor
  • Certified Irvine Addict
  • ****
  • Thanks
  • -Given: 2944
  • -Received: 2297
  • Posts: 11281
  • Gender: Male
Re: How low can we go? 30 yr fixed at 3.75% with no fees...
« Reply #3508 on: July 29, 2022, 02:08:28 PM »
The 10-year bond rate is back down to 2.75% and show a head-n-showers formation which may mean that the rate may head back to 2.50%.  Not sure where the MBS market is, but I got a few emails from lenders that they are back to around 4% for a 30-year fixed jumbo loan with no points.  The higher the Fed raises rates the more the yield curve will invert with lower long term bond rates go.  I'll look to refi into a 3.50% 30-year fixed or 10 year ARM jumbo loan this year or next year.
My daughter has a 4% loan (just closed in May). Unless it's no cost not sure it makes a huge difference for her since she is a few 100K under jumbo loans but I told her to get a mortgage broker and have her papers ready in case they fall one day bigly.

If the 10 year breaks 270 it could head back to 200. Not sure if it's because inflation is tamed or economy is just going to be that bad or both. Gas is $4.28 here now. So same thing....... why is that? Economy is just headed downhill??? In any case, looks like rates are done going up.

Yeah, the technicals look like bond rates are heading lower but it's no surprise given that economic indicators are pointing to a material slowdown.  I think if the Fed raises rates 100bps next week and/or CPI inflation starts rolling over I can see the 10-year bond rates come down to around 2.50% in the short term.

Bond rates continue to drift lower and we are now down to 2.65% and I still think we head to around 2.50% in the short term.  And it's not only the US that has lower bond yields, the same thing is happening in all of Europe.  Bond investors are pricing in a recession with lower longer term inflation expectations. 
Martin Mania, CPA
AgencyOne
CA DRE License # 01799007
CA CPA License # 107675
mmania001@yahoo.com
714-747-3884 cell

Often imitated....Never duplicated!
Have license, will travel!

 

Talk Irvine Links

[Recent Posts]
[FAQ / Rules]

Site Supporters


Recent Posts

Re: coronavirus by akula1488
[Yesterday at 10:54:58 PM]


Re: coronavirus by qwerty
[Yesterday at 09:47:32 PM]


Re: The Hypocrisy of Electric Vehicles by zovall
[Yesterday at 08:30:38 PM]


Re: coronavirus by zovall
[Yesterday at 08:27:32 PM]


Re: The Hypocrisy of Electric Vehicles by StarmanMBA
[Yesterday at 06:01:22 PM]

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2022, SimplePortal