Author Topic: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?  (Read 5860 times)

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Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #15 on: August 25, 2022, 12:30:57 PM »
Perhaps a good bookend to this thread would be this: Want your deal to be a success? Do what the successful do: Engage 2-3 lenders as Martin did. Sure, there might be a small cost of time and treasure, but better to have a Plan B and Plan C in hand than it is to scramble at hour zero for an all new solution.
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Offline sleepy5136

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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #16 on: August 25, 2022, 10:20:47 PM »
Hit up Sherry Wang at Citi. She's a legend.

Sherry at Citi was one of the lenders that I applied with for my home purchase and their rate was good, but their appraiser capped the bed by using non-view 2-story home closed comps causing the appraisal to be $450k below the contract amount and when she filed a protest with better supporting closed comps that I provided her the appraiser basically said F off....a complete fail.
As Calbears mentioned, that's an appraiser problem and not Sherry though. I don't think lenders have control of that TBH.

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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #17 on: August 25, 2022, 11:34:02 PM »
They do hire the appraisers...

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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #18 on: August 25, 2022, 11:56:25 PM »
Hit up Sherry Wang at Citi. She's a legend.

Sherry at Citi was one of the lenders that I applied with for my home purchase and their rate was good, but their appraiser capped the bed by using non-view 2-story home closed comps causing the appraisal to be $450k below the contract amount and when she filed a protest with better supporting closed comps that I provided her the appraiser basically said F off....a complete fail.
As Calbears mentioned, that's an appraiser problem and not Sherry though. I don't think lenders have control of that TBH.

They don't select the appraisers but they do have an approved list of appraisers that the lender contracts when the appraisal is ordered.  How the hell do you appraise a single-story view lot home by using two-level non-view lot homes and ignoring a comp closing within the past week in the tract?  That idiot should have his appraisal license revoked.  The Citi underwriter was also asking for some weird letter from TDAmeritrade (my personal account) that the TDAmeritrade reps had never heard of because of me having a margin account and having open short calls/puts.  I know that I'm not an easy underwrite with a lot of moving pieces in my financial situations hence why I went with 3 lenders concurrently (along with the appraised value risk).
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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2022, 07:13:51 AM »
They do hire the appraisers...

The specific appraiser is not chosen and is "randomly assigned".

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2022, 01:30:01 PM »
Hit up Sherry Wang at Citi. She's a legend.

Sherry at Citi was one of the lenders that I applied with for my home purchase and their rate was good, but their appraiser capped the bed by using non-view 2-story home closed comps causing the appraisal to be $450k below the contract amount and when she filed a protest with better supporting closed comps that I provided her the appraiser basically said F off....a complete fail.
As Calbears mentioned, that's an appraiser problem and not Sherry though. I don't think lenders have control of that TBH.

They don't select the appraisers but they do have an approved list of appraisers that the lender contracts when the appraisal is ordered.  How the hell do you appraise a single-story view lot home by using two-level non-view lot homes and ignoring a comp closing within the past week in the tract?  That idiot should have his appraisal license revoked.  The Citi underwriter was also asking for some weird letter from TDAmeritrade (my personal account) that the TDAmeritrade reps had never heard of because of me having a margin account and having open short calls/puts.  I know that I'm not an easy underwrite with a lot of moving pieces in my financial situations hence why I went with 3 lenders concurrently (along with the appraised value risk).
Thats interesting that they don’t allow a second appraiser based on their list. I would think if there is sufficient evidence of the appraisal being off that the bank would try to do what they can to help you.

I’m actually glad to hear your situation about the margin acct so you know now that mortgages aren’t like the housing bubble in 08’.

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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2022, 01:54:38 PM »
Hit up Sherry Wang at Citi. She's a legend.

Sherry at Citi was one of the lenders that I applied with for my home purchase and their rate was good, but their appraiser capped the bed by using non-view 2-story home closed comps causing the appraisal to be $450k below the contract amount and when she filed a protest with better supporting closed comps that I provided her the appraiser basically said F off....a complete fail.
As Calbears mentioned, that's an appraiser problem and not Sherry though. I don't think lenders have control of that TBH.

They don't select the appraisers but they do have an approved list of appraisers that the lender contracts when the appraisal is ordered.  How the hell do you appraise a single-story view lot home by using two-level non-view lot homes and ignoring a comp closing within the past week in the tract?  That idiot should have his appraisal license revoked.  The Citi underwriter was also asking for some weird letter from TDAmeritrade (my personal account) that the TDAmeritrade reps had never heard of because of me having a margin account and having open short calls/puts.  I know that I'm not an easy underwrite with a lot of moving pieces in my financial situations hence why I went with 3 lenders concurrently (along with the appraised value risk).
Thats interesting that they don’t allow a second appraiser based on their list. I would think if there is sufficient evidence of the appraisal being off that the bank would try to do what they can to help you.

I’m actually glad to hear your situation about the margin acct so you know now that mortgages aren’t like the housing bubble in 08’.

The only avenue was to challenge the appraisal which we did with the relevant comps but no dice as the appraiser was completely non-receptive.  There was no recourse to request another appraisal.  Being self employed, I can tell you that the underwriting by all 3 lenders was extremely thorough and a bit painful but I was ready and provided all requested items within 24 hours in not in a few hours.
Martin Mania, CPA
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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #22 on: August 26, 2022, 04:12:48 PM »
Hit up Sherry Wang at Citi. She's a legend.

Sherry at Citi was one of the lenders that I applied with for my home purchase and their rate was good, but their appraiser capped the bed by using non-view 2-story home closed comps causing the appraisal to be $450k below the contract amount and when she filed a protest with better supporting closed comps that I provided her the appraiser basically said F off....a complete fail.
As Calbears mentioned, that's an appraiser problem and not Sherry though. I don't think lenders have control of that TBH.

They don't select the appraisers but they do have an approved list of appraisers that the lender contracts when the appraisal is ordered.  How the hell do you appraise a single-story view lot home by using two-level non-view lot homes and ignoring a comp closing within the past week in the tract?  That idiot should have his appraisal license revoked.  The Citi underwriter was also asking for some weird letter from TDAmeritrade (my personal account) that the TDAmeritrade reps had never heard of because of me having a margin account and having open short calls/puts.  I know that I'm not an easy underwrite with a lot of moving pieces in my financial situations hence why I went with 3 lenders concurrently (along with the appraised value risk).
Thats interesting that they don’t allow a second appraiser based on their list. I would think if there is sufficient evidence of the appraisal being off that the bank would try to do what they can to help you.

I’m actually glad to hear your situation about the margin acct so you know now that mortgages aren’t like the housing bubble in 08’.

The only avenue was to challenge the appraisal which we did with the relevant comps but no dice as the appraiser was completely non-receptive.  There was no recourse to request another appraisal.  Being self employed, I can tell you that the underwriting by all 3 lenders was extremely thorough and a bit painful but I was ready and provided all requested items within 24 hours in not in a few hours.

Appraiser pay has been stagnant or declining ever since the Dodd Frank rules went into place, so the incentive to do extra work is not there.  They don't receive additional pay for considering buyer-provided comps, so the simplest thing is to ignore the request and move on to the next paying job.

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #23 on: August 26, 2022, 07:05:09 PM »
Hit up Sherry Wang at Citi. She's a legend.

Sherry at Citi was one of the lenders that I applied with for my home purchase and their rate was good, but their appraiser capped the bed by using non-view 2-story home closed comps causing the appraisal to be $450k below the contract amount and when she filed a protest with better supporting closed comps that I provided her the appraiser basically said F off....a complete fail.
As Calbears mentioned, that's an appraiser problem and not Sherry though. I don't think lenders have control of that TBH.

They don't select the appraisers but they do have an approved list of appraisers that the lender contracts when the appraisal is ordered.  How the hell do you appraise a single-story view lot home by using two-level non-view lot homes and ignoring a comp closing within the past week in the tract?  That idiot should have his appraisal license revoked.  The Citi underwriter was also asking for some weird letter from TDAmeritrade (my personal account) that the TDAmeritrade reps had never heard of because of me having a margin account and having open short calls/puts.  I know that I'm not an easy underwrite with a lot of moving pieces in my financial situations hence why I went with 3 lenders concurrently (along with the appraised value risk).
Thats interesting that they don’t allow a second appraiser based on their list. I would think if there is sufficient evidence of the appraisal being off that the bank would try to do what they can to help you.

I’m actually glad to hear your situation about the margin acct so you know now that mortgages aren’t like the housing bubble in 08’.

The only avenue was to challenge the appraisal which we did with the relevant comps but no dice as the appraiser was completely non-receptive.  There was no recourse to request another appraisal.  Being self employed, I can tell you that the underwriting by all 3 lenders was extremely thorough and a bit painful but I was ready and provided all requested items within 24 hours in not in a few hours.

Appraiser pay has been stagnant or declining ever since the Dodd Frank rules went into place, so the incentive to do extra work is not there.  They don't receive additional pay for considering buyer-provided comps, so the simplest thing is to ignore the request and move on to the next paying job.

I've never heard of an appraisal being changed once issued so I factored the "bad" appraiser variable in my decision to go concurrent with 3 lenders.
Martin Mania, CPA
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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2022, 04:57:40 PM »
Hit up Sherry Wang at Citi. She's a legend.

Sherry at Citi was one of the lenders that I applied with for my home purchase and their rate was good, but their appraiser capped the bed by using non-view 2-story home closed comps causing the appraisal to be $450k below the contract amount and when she filed a protest with better supporting closed comps that I provided her the appraiser basically said F off....a complete fail.
As Calbears mentioned, that's an appraiser problem and not Sherry though. I don't think lenders have control of that TBH.

They don't select the appraisers but they do have an approved list of appraisers that the lender contracts when the appraisal is ordered.  How the hell do you appraise a single-story view lot home by using two-level non-view lot homes and ignoring a comp closing within the past week in the tract?  That idiot should have his appraisal license revoked.  The Citi underwriter was also asking for some weird letter from TDAmeritrade (my personal account) that the TDAmeritrade reps had never heard of because of me having a margin account and having open short calls/puts.  I know that I'm not an easy underwrite with a lot of moving pieces in my financial situations hence why I went with 3 lenders concurrently (along with the appraised value risk).
Thats interesting that they don’t allow a second appraiser based on their list. I would think if there is sufficient evidence of the appraisal being off that the bank would try to do what they can to help you.

I’m actually glad to hear your situation about the margin acct so you know now that mortgages aren’t like the housing bubble in 08’.

The only avenue was to challenge the appraisal which we did with the relevant comps but no dice as the appraiser was completely non-receptive.  There was no recourse to request another appraisal.  Being self employed, I can tell you that the underwriting by all 3 lenders was extremely thorough and a bit painful but I was ready and provided all requested items within 24 hours in not in a few hours.

Appraiser pay has been stagnant or declining ever since the Dodd Frank rules went into place, so the incentive to do extra work is not there.  They don't receive additional pay for considering buyer-provided comps, so the simplest thing is to ignore the request and move on to the next paying job.

I've never heard of an appraisal being changed once issued so I factored the "bad" appraiser variable in my decision to go concurrent with 3 lenders.

I have successfully helped clients get an appraiser revised whether it be home value or rental value. Takes a lot of work but usually it is unsuccessful. The alternative is the client can opt to pay for a second appraisal and we use the higher value of the 2.

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #25 on: August 27, 2022, 10:24:24 PM »
Hit up Sherry Wang at Citi. She's a legend.

Sherry at Citi was one of the lenders that I applied with for my home purchase and their rate was good, but their appraiser capped the bed by using non-view 2-story home closed comps causing the appraisal to be $450k below the contract amount and when she filed a protest with better supporting closed comps that I provided her the appraiser basically said F off....a complete fail.
As Calbears mentioned, that's an appraiser problem and not Sherry though. I don't think lenders have control of that TBH.

They don't select the appraisers but they do have an approved list of appraisers that the lender contracts when the appraisal is ordered.  How the hell do you appraise a single-story view lot home by using two-level non-view lot homes and ignoring a comp closing within the past week in the tract?  That idiot should have his appraisal license revoked.  The Citi underwriter was also asking for some weird letter from TDAmeritrade (my personal account) that the TDAmeritrade reps had never heard of because of me having a margin account and having open short calls/puts.  I know that I'm not an easy underwrite with a lot of moving pieces in my financial situations hence why I went with 3 lenders concurrently (along with the appraised value risk).
Thats interesting that they don’t allow a second appraiser based on their list. I would think if there is sufficient evidence of the appraisal being off that the bank would try to do what they can to help you.

I’m actually glad to hear your situation about the margin acct so you know now that mortgages aren’t like the housing bubble in 08’.

The only avenue was to challenge the appraisal which we did with the relevant comps but no dice as the appraiser was completely non-receptive.  There was no recourse to request another appraisal.  Being self employed, I can tell you that the underwriting by all 3 lenders was extremely thorough and a bit painful but I was ready and provided all requested items within 24 hours in not in a few hours.

Appraiser pay has been stagnant or declining ever since the Dodd Frank rules went into place, so the incentive to do extra work is not there.  They don't receive additional pay for considering buyer-provided comps, so the simplest thing is to ignore the request and move on to the next paying job.

I've never heard of an appraisal being changed once issued so I factored the "bad" appraiser variable in my decision to go concurrent with 3 lenders.

I have successfully helped clients get an appraiser revised whether it be home value or rental value. Takes a lot of work but usually it is unsuccessful. The alternative is the client can opt to pay for a second appraisal and we use the higher value of the 2.
don't lenders take the lower all the time to derisk?

Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #26 on: August 28, 2022, 05:03:45 AM »
Appraisals values are data influenced opinions of value, not Gospel Facts. Yes, appraisals can be challenged and overruled opinions happen all the time. In many cases what's needed to get a "true" (not "higher") value does not exist.

When challenging an appraisal a buyer must provide 2-3 additional comparable closed sales sold within 90, but no more than 120 days from contract date. The key words of "additional", "closed" and "date" are invariable. A buyer cannot re-litigate the comparables used or provide a 2nd/3rd appraisal with the same comparables used as these comparables are also "opinion based valuations" and not, as hoped, Gospel Fact either.

All appraisals are reviewed. This means that you have to not only convince the appraiser that their work was insufficient, but also the reviewer who concurred with the original value. It's a high bar to hurdle, but one that I've seen good data miners jump over before.

PS: The success rate is roughly 25 percent - clearly an uphill battle. Get 2-3 lenders working on the same deal to start with. Yes this means paying for 2-3 appraisals. Yes also, like playing 3 separate hands of Blackjack at the same table in Vegas, your odds of beating the Dealer are exponentially increased. Perhaps the home is overvalued. With 2-3 appraisals in hand a good listing Agent can convince a seller to reduce their price.

My .02c
« Last Edit: August 28, 2022, 02:34:42 PM by Soylent Green Is People »
My .02c

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Offline Cares

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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #27 on: August 28, 2022, 02:25:35 PM »
Yep exactly what Soylent said. It involved providing strong comps to support a different opinion of value and persuasive letters to indicate why the comps used by the appraiser were poor choices (ex. subject property is in a gated community vs. comps not in a gated community and geographically inferior, etc.)

Also again, you have to think of the human psychology of it where you're trying to get someone to admit they did an inferior job and that you told them how to do it better. Most people will not "admit fault" and just deny any objections to appraisal value.

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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #28 on: August 28, 2022, 07:49:31 PM »
Yep exactly what Soylent said. It involved providing strong comps to support a different opinion of value and persuasive letters to indicate why the comps used by the appraiser were poor choices (ex. subject property is in a gated community vs. comps not in a gated community and geographically inferior, etc.)

Also again, you have to think of the human psychology of it where you're trying to get someone to admit they did an inferior job and that you told them how to do it better. Most people will not "admit fault" and just deny any objections to appraisal value.

There was a highly relevant comp close that happened a week before the appraiser came out on Crayton and yet he refused to consider it.  Like I said, I got the bad luck of the draw with the Citi appraiser.  The other 2 appraisal used not only that comp but also other single level comps with adjustments for condition and view lot and 2 level view lot comps from Turtle Ridge with adjustments for the gated community and them being 2 level. 
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Re: How high will mortgage rates climb in the next 36 months?
« Reply #29 on: September 13, 2022, 12:25:09 PM »
And Wells goes over 6%

Product
Interest Rate
APR
Jumbo Loans– Amounts that exceed conforming loan limits
7/6-Month ARM Jumbo
4.750%
4.991%
15-Year Fixed-Rate Jumbo
4.875%
5.073%
30-Year Fixed-Rate Jumbo
5.125%
5.241%
Conforming and Government Loans
7/6-Month ARM
5.625%
5.475%
30-Year Fixed Rate
6.125%
6.294%

Rates, terms, and fees as of 9/13/2022 10:15 AM Eastern Daylight Time and subject to change without notice.
 
https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/

 

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