Poll

Where will Irvine housing prices be in one year?

Down over 50%
0 (0%)
Down 20%
20 (13.5%)
Down 10%
40 (27%)
Down 5%
31 (20.9%)
Flat
37 (25%)
Up 5%
15 (10.1%)
Up 10%
5 (3.4%)
Up 20%
0 (0%)
Up over 50%
0 (0%)
Other (please specify in post)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 105

Voting closed: August 20, 2022, 12:55:13 PM

Author Topic: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022  (Read 18616 times)

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Offline linus

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #135 on: August 05, 2022, 10:30:15 PM »
https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC

Offline OCtoSV

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #136 on: August 06, 2022, 05:00:54 PM »
https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC

6 figure reductions on Irvine new construction. Dropping like a rock.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #137 on: August 06, 2022, 05:57:26 PM »
https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC

6 figure reductions on Irvine new construction. Dropping like a rock.

Well, when their prices are stupid to begin with then of course you'll have 6 figure price reductions just like all the other resales that were priced based upon April/May closing prices.  If you price a home right and present it well it'll go into escrow within 30 days, simple as that.

I said this before, when the market was on fire all listing agents looked like rock stars.  But now that things have cooled off, we'll find out which agents are the good ones and the ones that aren't.
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Offline CalBears96

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #138 on: August 06, 2022, 06:34:21 PM »
https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/california/la-orange-county/promo/ochlen_oc_hotw_2

Lennar starts offering price reduction on some move-in ready in OC

6 figure reductions on Irvine new construction. Dropping like a rock.

Well, when their prices are stupid to begin with then of course you'll have 6 figure price reductions just like all the other resales that were priced based upon April/May closing prices.  If you price a home right and present it well it'll go into escrow within 30 days, simple as that.

I said this before, when the market was on fire all listing agents looked like rock stars.  But now that things have cooled off, we'll find out which agents are the good ones and the ones that aren't.

Exactly. Just because some fools list their houses ridiculously high and then have to make 6 figure price reduction doesn't mean dropping like a rock.

Prime example: IP was selling Bluffs 1 at $1.725M (bigger lot), but the neighbor diagonally across from me listed their Bluffs 1 (smallest lot and barely any upgrades) at $1.89M. Now they had to reduce to $1.799M. Does it mean dropping like a rock? Hell no. It only means they were greedy fools.

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Offline OCtoSV

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #139 on: August 08, 2022, 10:44:43 AM »
Only 3 homes > $2M in the last 1 week of closings - that tier of the market seems much slower than before

Offline best_potsticker_in_town

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #140 on: August 08, 2022, 11:18:08 AM »
Definitely not a lot of activity in the $2m+ market in Irvine. Also have actually seen a few listings get canceled as well - likely as the sellers prefer to just take the home off the market rather than doing a price reduction.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #141 on: August 08, 2022, 12:03:28 PM »
Based on the poll.. if prices only drop 5-10% in a year.. isn't that seasonal? :)
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #142 on: August 12, 2022, 11:05:55 AM »
Based on the poll.. if prices only drop 5-10% in a year.. isn't that seasonal? :)

Uh...no.  That's why the two year Irvine decline in 2018 was so painful.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #143 on: August 12, 2022, 12:57:10 PM »
Based on the poll.. if prices only drop 5-10% in a year.. isn't that seasonal? :)

Uh...no.  That's why the two year Irvine decline in 2018 was so painful.

So hilarious! What was the percentage of that decline again?
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #144 on: August 12, 2022, 01:42:04 PM »
Based on the poll.. if prices only drop 5-10% in a year.. isn't that seasonal? :)

Uh...no.  That's why the two year Irvine decline in 2018 was so painful.

So hilarious! What was the percentage of that decline again?

I'm sure your home only went up in value, but the rest of Irvine didn't fare so well.  According to realtor expert USC, prices declined 8% based on his own measurements.

Now I know a six-figure loss is no big deal in the IHO household, but to a first time buyer, that tends to have a brutal impact on the pocket book as well as the mental health.  The proof is in the pudding.  Home values are taking a hit and domestic violence crimes in Irvine are now on the rise.

Offline The California Court Company

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #145 on: August 12, 2022, 02:16:22 PM »
assuming 20% downpayment, 8% price decline means the equity is pretty much gone after including the 8% transaction cost; in a bull real estate market, cash on cash return of the down payment is amazing but in a bear market it can wipe it out fairly quickly. It is the ultimate leverage.

Based on the poll.. if prices only drop 5-10% in a year.. isn't that seasonal? :)

Uh...no.  That's why the two year Irvine decline in 2018 was so painful.

So hilarious! What was the percentage of that decline again?

I'm sure your home only went up in value, but the rest of Irvine didn't fare so well.  According to realtor expert USC, prices declined 8% based on his own measurements.

Now I know a six-figure loss is no big deal in the IHO household, but to a first time buyer, that tends to have a brutal impact on the pocket book as well as the mental health.  The proof is in the pudding.  Home values are taking a hit and domestic violence crimes in Irvine are now on the rise.
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Offline CalBears96

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #146 on: August 12, 2022, 03:34:47 PM »
I have one very simple question:

If you bought the house in 2018 to live in it for 5, 10, or 20 years, what does the decline have to do with "brutal impact on the pocket book as well as the mental health"? And what does ultimate leverage mean?

Does the decline in housing price affect your mortgage payment? NO. So how does that impact the pocket book?

On the other hand, does increase in housing price give you any leverage if you don't sell the house? No. So what ultimate leverage does it give you?

The point is, short term increase/drop has NO EFFECT whatsoever if you plan to live in the house for some period of time.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #147 on: August 12, 2022, 04:51:29 PM »
Based on the poll.. if prices only drop 5-10% in a year.. isn't that seasonal? :)

Uh...no.  That's why the two year Irvine decline in 2018 was so painful.

So hilarious! What was the percentage of that decline again?

I'm sure your home only went up in value, but the rest of Irvine didn't fare so well.  According to realtor expert USC, prices declined 8% based on his own measurements.

Now I know a six-figure loss is no big deal in the IHO household, but to a first time buyer, that tends to have a brutal impact on the pocket book as well as the mental health.  The proof is in the pudding.  Home values are taking a hit and domestic violence crimes in Irvine are now on the rise.

It's not a loss if you stayed longer which is one of my main caveats... just like CalBears said above.

And here is something you keep failing to mention:

If you bought in 2018, how long did that loss last? Because by 2020, prices were back up again... and if you sold within the last year or so... that 8% loss turned into what?

Keep trying.
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Offline TestingIrvine

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #148 on: August 12, 2022, 08:43:40 PM »
Based on the poll.. if prices only drop 5-10% in a year.. isn't that seasonal? :)

Uh...no.  That's why the two year Irvine decline in 2018 was so painful.

LL: why’d you buy in 2018 and sell so fast? 😂

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #149 on: August 12, 2022, 09:06:39 PM »
Based on the poll.. if prices only drop 5-10% in a year.. isn't that seasonal? :)

Uh...no.  That's why the two year Irvine decline in 2018 was so painful.

So hilarious! What was the percentage of that decline again?

I'm sure your home only went up in value, but the rest of Irvine didn't fare so well.  According to realtor expert USC, prices declined 8% based on his own measurements.

Now I know a six-figure loss is no big deal in the IHO household, but to a first time buyer, that tends to have a brutal impact on the pocket book as well as the mental health.  The proof is in the pudding.  Home values are taking a hit and domestic violence crimes in Irvine are now on the rise.

Yeah, you would have had an 8% if you bought at the absolute peak and sold at the absolute bottom but as you know people are bad at timing things even if they try.  I doubt that someone who bought near the top of the market in the Spring of 2018 would have or was forced to sell if the price of their home on paper went down 5-8% because a home is not a margined stock position. 

The key is to buy what you can comfortably afford and enjoy the home for many years.  A commodity first and an investment second because people choose to buy a home for more than a financial reason.  I'm sure I bought near the peak but I could care less because I can comfortable afford the home and plan on living there 10+ years.  Besides, it look me 2+ years for find the home so if I wouldn't have bought it who knows how long it might have taken me to find something just as nice that checked as many boxes.  In my head, some things are more important than money and one of them is TIME.
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