Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022

[irvinehomeowner]

Alright, put your crystal balls to the test.

1. Finite time frame, so 1 year from now.
2. Irvine housing only (this is TI after all)
3. You can pick up to 3
4. Can vote/edit for 2 months then it locks.

I think I listed enough options but let me know if I missed something. I don't think over 50% either way is possible.

[CalBears96]

I'm sticking to no more than 20%, so I'm choosing the options ranging from 5% to 20%, since it will drop for sure.

[melodypowell]

I am hoping that it drops to 2019/early 2020 level around my neighborhood, I have been looking to purchase another one so our parents can eventually move closer to us~ we will see~

[best_potsticker_in_town]

I selected down 5-10%. However, I think the drop will be seen more in the $2m and up price range. Below $2m should be flat-ish from here on out, in my opinion.

[Liar Loan]

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

[irvinehomeowner]

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

See this is stuff I can understand.

Quite different from your 2018 predictions of instant pain... so... given that (and I've read some of your other posts), we won't see significant drops for 5 or more years? Do I need another poll for that?

[Liar Loan]

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

See this is stuff I can understand.

Quite different from your 2018 predictions of instant pain... so... given that (and I've read some of your other posts), we won't see significant drops for 5 or more years? Do I need another poll for that?

I don't think I ever predicted "instant" pain.  There are too many differences between 2018 and 2022 to really compare the two - 2018 was driven by rates and the SALT cap revealing the weakness of Irvine home buyers; This time will be a nationwide economic event that we tell our children and grandchildren about: "I remember when rates shot up from 2% to X% and all the pain that it caused." - Just like the Boomers of today love to talk about 13% mortgage rates in 1980.

[OCtoSV]

Lansner’s statistical modeling has him predicting 10% mortgage rates. I see that happening within 2 years and a slow burn up to 50% off for entry level properties with tbe $2M+ market being only cash transactions

[someguy]

.

[TestingIrvine]

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

See this is stuff I can understand.

Quite different from your 2018 predictions of instant pain... so... given that (and I've read some of your other posts), we won't see significant drops for 5 or more years? Do I need another poll for that?

I don't think I ever predicted "instant" pain.  There are too many differences between 2018 and 2022 to really compare the two - 2018 was driven by rates and the SALT cap revealing the weakness of Irvine home buyers; This time will be a nationwide economic event that we tell our children and grandchildren about: "I remember when rates shot up from 2% to X% and all the pain that it caused." - Just like the Boomers of today love to talk about 13% mortgage rates in 1980.

Thanks for the non commitment answer 🤡

[Liar Loan]

[USCTrojanCPA]

I think prices will be down 5-10% (depends on interest rates and the job market at that point).

[Liar Loan]

#CherryPicking #BrokenClock

Orange County home prices could fall 14%, says Chapman forecast

The school’s semiannual economic outlook, released Thursday, June 23, calls for a 14% drop in the local median selling price to June 2023 — one of the first projections of significant declining home values. The forecast says Orange County’s median home price will go from $1.03 million in 2022’s first quarter to $891,000 by mid-2023. Sales counts will fall 20% this year alone.

Chapman’s previous forecasts were one of the few outlooks nationwide that saw problematic inflation emerging from a robust economic rebound out of the pandemic’s business chill. How did so many “experts” miss that fallout from an overly stimulated economy — and the obvious next step, surging interest rates?

“I can’t answer that other than to say people don’t know history and don’t believe in history,” Doti says. “It gets you to this tulip mentality, Bitcoin mentality, that the markets are just going to keep going up.”

“Almost virtually every time the Fed has tightened monetary policy — certainly when you’ve had this kind of inflation — there’s never been a soft landing,” he says. “So how can anybody believe in the soft landing? Why are people thinking home prices can continue to go up forever when we’ve seen, historically, periods that they don’t?”

https://www.ocregister.com/2022/06/23/orange-county-home-prices-could-fall-14-says-chapman-forecast/

[TestingIrvine]

Considering homes were trending at $800psf, 14% actually is not bad.

Im sticking to my prediction of prices falling close to Q3 2021 values.

[Davidlee199]

See what the federal reserve said.  Don’t fight the Fed!!
https://fortune.com/2022/06/16/housing-market-reset-federal-reserve-could-see-home-prices-fall/

Keep in mind 50% houses in Irvine are rentals. It makes no sense for landlords to keep the rentals if home prices are falling.  Many China FCBs landlords are selling now as rates on their 3/5 years mortgages are about to reset to 6-7% this year.