Poll

Where will Irvine housing prices be in one year?

Down over 50%
0 (0%)
Down 20%
19 (13.3%)
Down 10%
39 (27.3%)
Down 5%
30 (21%)
Flat
35 (24.5%)
Up 5%
15 (10.5%)
Up 10%
5 (3.5%)
Up 20%
0 (0%)
Up over 50%
0 (0%)
Other (please specify in post)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 102

Voting closes: August 20, 2022, 12:55:13 PM

Author Topic: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022  (Read 12529 times)

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2022, 03:52:58 PM »
See what the federal reserve said.  Don’t fight the Fed!!
https://fortune.com/2022/06/16/housing-market-reset-federal-reserve-could-see-home-prices-fall/

Keep in mind 50% houses in Irvine are rentals. It makes no sense for landlords to keep the rentals if home prices are falling.  Many China FCBs landlords are selling now as rates on their 3/5 years mortgages are about to reset to 6-7% this year.

But what about the ones who locked in at lower fixed rates?
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline zovall

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #16 on: June 29, 2022, 03:59:24 PM »
Keep in mind 50% houses in Irvine are rentals.

This seems awfully high. Does anyone have actual numbers on this?

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #17 on: June 29, 2022, 04:42:29 PM »
Keep in mind 50% houses in Irvine are rentals.

This seems awfully high. Does anyone have actual numbers on this?

We could back into the number.

Irvine by type of home:
SFR & Townhome ~ 55%
Apts & Mobile Home ~ 45%

Irvine by ownership rate:
Owner ~ 44%
Renter ~ 56%

https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/irvine/real-estate

So by using crude math, maybe 11% of SFR/Townhomes are rentals. 

It's not precise because we don't know the percentage of vacancies in each property type.  If apartment vacancies are higher than SFR/Townhomes, which seems likely, then maybe 14-15% of Irvine SFR/Townhomes are rentals.



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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #18 on: June 29, 2022, 04:46:48 PM »
As much as I would like to see 20%+ drops for Irvine... based on history... doesn't seem like that can happen in 1 year.

Most of the votes are flat... so maybe I need a poll for 5 years from now since that seems like the magic timeframe for LL.
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #19 on: June 30, 2022, 04:33:52 PM »
Wow.... More #brokenclocks than you can shake a stick at.  Even the California Association of Realtors agrees with me!!  For shame! For shame!

Southern California housing prices will fall, some experts say. The question is how much

“It’s noteworthy,” said Jordan Levine, chief economist at the California Assn. of Realtors. “Prices are going to go down.”

Levine is still putting the final touches on a forecast to be released in July. But for now, he expects the California median sales price for all of 2022 to be up 9.7% from a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from the nearly 20% growth seen in 2021.

Then in 2023, he expects the Federal Reserve’s actions to fight inflation will cause a mild recession and the combination of job losses and higher rates will cause the statewide median price to fall 7.1% compared with this year, with similar declines in Southern California specifically.

Others that recently shifted forecasts to include home price declines in 2023 are Capital Economics, an international economic research firm, and John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine.

In May, John Burns started forecasting that both national and Southern California prices would decline next year, in part because the firm sees a recession as increasingly likely.

In 2023, the consulting firm expects declines in the mid single digits in Los Angeles and Orange counties and for prices to fall in the high single digit range in the Inland Empire.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said prices could fall even absent a recession.

But if rates rise to around 6.25% or 6.5% and hold there, Zandi said, Southern California prices would probably fall around 5% without a recession and potentially as much as 10% with a recession.


--------------------------------
LA Times article without paywall
https://archive.ph/1hZRV#selection-2143.0-2143.195

Offline Yousr

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #20 on: June 30, 2022, 09:46:52 PM »
Wow.... More #brokenclocks than you can shake a stick at.  Even the California Association of Realtors agrees with me!!  For shame! For shame!

Southern California housing prices will fall, some experts say. The question is how much

“It’s noteworthy,” said Jordan Levine, chief economist at the California Assn. of Realtors. “Prices are going to go down.”

Levine is still putting the final touches on a forecast to be released in July. But for now, he expects the California median sales price for all of 2022 to be up 9.7% from a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from the nearly 20% growth seen in 2021.

Then in 2023, he expects the Federal Reserve’s actions to fight inflation will cause a mild recession and the combination of job losses and higher rates will cause the statewide median price to fall 7.1% compared with this year, with similar declines in Southern California specifically.

Others that recently shifted forecasts to include home price declines in 2023 are Capital Economics, an international economic research firm, and John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine.

In May, John Burns started forecasting that both national and Southern California prices would decline next year, in part because the firm sees a recession as increasingly likely.

In 2023, the consulting firm expects declines in the mid single digits in Los Angeles and Orange counties and for prices to fall in the high single digit range in the Inland Empire.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said prices could fall even absent a recession.

But if rates rise to around 6.25% or 6.5% and hold there, Zandi said, Southern California prices would probably fall around 5% without a recession and potentially as much as 10% with a recession.


--------------------------------
LA Times article without paywall
https://archive.ph/1hZRV#selection-2143.0-2143.195

So a 10% increase in 2022 followed by a 7% decline in 2023 is what you consider agreeing with you  :)

Online CalBears96

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #21 on: June 30, 2022, 10:37:43 PM »
Wow.... More #brokenclocks than you can shake a stick at.  Even the California Association of Realtors agrees with me!!  For shame! For shame!

Southern California housing prices will fall, some experts say. The question is how much

“It’s noteworthy,” said Jordan Levine, chief economist at the California Assn. of Realtors. “Prices are going to go down.”

Levine is still putting the final touches on a forecast to be released in July. But for now, he expects the California median sales price for all of 2022 to be up 9.7% from a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from the nearly 20% growth seen in 2021.

Then in 2023, he expects the Federal Reserve’s actions to fight inflation will cause a mild recession and the combination of job losses and higher rates will cause the statewide median price to fall 7.1% compared with this year, with similar declines in Southern California specifically.

Others that recently shifted forecasts to include home price declines in 2023 are Capital Economics, an international economic research firm, and John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine.

In May, John Burns started forecasting that both national and Southern California prices would decline next year, in part because the firm sees a recession as increasingly likely.

In 2023, the consulting firm expects declines in the mid single digits in Los Angeles and Orange counties and for prices to fall in the high single digit range in the Inland Empire.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said prices could fall even absent a recession.

But if rates rise to around 6.25% or 6.5% and hold there, Zandi said, Southern California prices would probably fall around 5% without a recession and potentially as much as 10% with a recession.


--------------------------------
LA Times article without paywall
https://archive.ph/1hZRV#selection-2143.0-2143.195

You are so full of shit, Liar. You said housing would decrease in 2022, not 2023. He's agreeing with the rest of us, not you. We all said that housing price would peak in mid 2022 and then would flatten and decline after that.

Even when you cherry pick, you can't do it right.

Offline nosuchreality

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #22 on: July 01, 2022, 06:53:44 AM »
Yippie, $1.75M instead of $1.9M if we have a recession.

Offline zovall

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #23 on: July 01, 2022, 02:51:25 PM »
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.

Offline WTTCHMN

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #24 on: July 01, 2022, 03:28:42 PM »
Every time I think prices are high in Irvine, I take a look at parts of the Bay to see real craziness. Many of those buyers are in tech and could be remote and if they could, why would they spend $4.125m ($635k over asking) for this:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/7646-Berland-Ct-95014/home/1418200

Compared to places like Cupertino and Saratoga, Irvine is dirt cheap still. I know the job market is different there but anecdotally I'm aware of several who sold in the Bay and bought in Orange County.

It's because of Monta Vista High... the realtors even mention it in the first sentence.  So they are selling not just the house, but the illusion that the buyer's kid will get into an Ivy...

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #25 on: July 01, 2022, 04:22:02 PM »
CalBears: You said housing would decrease in 2022, not 2023.

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

Is the pressure starting to get to you?

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #26 on: July 01, 2022, 04:32:21 PM »
So a 10% increase in 2022 followed by a 7% decline in 2023 is what you consider agreeing with you  :)

Yes!  If the housing bust only lasts one year, then we'll all be sitting pretty in 2024.  Unfortunately, Orange County has had price declines in about 10 of the past 30 years - 1/3 of the time - because housing busts tend to last about 5-6 years in length. 

If you are saying this time will be different, well, then the burden is on you to explain why. :)

Online CalBears96

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #27 on: July 01, 2022, 04:47:09 PM »
CalBears: You said housing would decrease in 2022, not 2023.

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

Is the pressure starting to get to you?

What pressure are you talking about? Are you dumb? Still can't admit you're wrong?

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #28 on: July 01, 2022, 04:59:46 PM »
CalBears: You said housing would decrease in 2022, not 2023.

Prices may not go down very much over the next 12 months as we are in a transitional market.  Just like in 1990-1991 median price was flat, and 2006-2007 was mostly flat, 2022-2023 may also be relatively flat. 

The median price could actually increase for awhile because the sales mix will shift to higher end homes that are less rate sensitive.  It will take a recession with job losses to really knock the legs out from under the housing market and that will take some time to develop.

Is the pressure starting to get to you?

What pressure are you talking about? Are you dumb? Still can't admit you're wrong?

I don't know.  You recently claimed to have predicted a price decline in the second half of 2022, which I quickly showed wasn't true with your own post.  Now you're claiming I predicted something, which anybody can go back one page on this thread to see is not true.  It seems that something is eating away at you.

Online CalBears96

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Re: Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2022
« Reply #29 on: July 01, 2022, 06:34:56 PM »
So you're still full of shit, Liar.

 

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