Short Rivian?

Cornflakes

Active member
As crazy as stock market is, how many other companies are worth 100B that has no revenue and is burning money?

Over time, Rivian may be successful in bringing great cars out, scal up production, and all good stuff. But that road is at least a few quarters out and the ride has to be bumpy till then.
 
Let's say if your short sell investment horizon is 1 year. In 1 year, how high can Rivian go? 10x? That would be 1T valuation, same as Tesla today.

If that happens, you lose 9x the principal your invested. So, 5k short will lose 45k.

But, if that does happen, I can only imagine what my 401k and crypto holdings will do. If Rivian can hit 10x in a year, why bitcoin will not be 500k, why S&P won't 3x or 5x in a year? I should take 45k loss on Rivian with a smile.
 
Bought a March 70 Put. Will buy some more.  Happy to lose some $ if I am wrong and Rivian shoots up. I think that overall market will go up in that case and will make up somewhere else.
 
I think Rivian is unproven at this time on how they will scale and reach profitability. Tesla took quite a long time to get to that point.
 
The guy that runs three successful companies and has proven track record of solving hardest problem says that scaling up production was the hardest problem and kicked his ass. We'll see if Rivian has magic trick up their sleeve and makes Musk look like fool spending so much time scaling up.
 
I think the chip shortage is going to affect scaling up production. I also bought a March 70 put just for the heck of it.  ;D
 
Cornflakes said:
The guy that runs three successful companies and has proven track record of solving hardest problem says that scaling up production was the hardest problem and kicked his ass. We'll see if Rivian has magic trick up their sleeve and makes Musk look like fool spending so much time scaling up.

As of today Amazon owns a 20 percent stake in Rivian.
To the moon!
 
CalBears96 said:
I think the chip shortage is going to affect scaling up production. I also bought a March 70 put just for the heck of it.  ;D

Welcome to the club.

When Rivian doubles from here, will buy more puts.

Anyone who has been on the other side of the table with Amazon as a vendor/supplier (and I have been) will not see Amazon order as a big plus.
 
eyephone said:
Cornflakes said:
The guy that runs three successful companies and has proven track record of solving hardest problem says that scaling up production was the hardest problem and kicked his ass. We'll see if Rivian has magic trick up their sleeve and makes Musk look like fool spending so much time scaling up.

As of today Amazon owns a 20 percent stake in Rivian.
To the moon!

I might just buy more!
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Buy puts that expire after the IPO lockbox period.

That would be 5/9/2022. That's a very good idea, actually. But I also think there will be profit taking before then. It was trading around $100 on the first day.

I think I'll buy another put expiring in May.  ;D
 
eyephone said:
eyephone said:
Cornflakes said:
The guy that runs three successful companies and has proven track record of solving hardest problem says that scaling up production was the hardest problem and kicked his ass. We'll see if Rivian has magic trick up their sleeve and makes Musk look like fool spending so much time scaling up.

As of today Amazon owns a 20 percent stake in Rivian.
To the moon!

I might just buy more!

Good thing I didnt buy more. I initially got in at $78. prayge :D
 
If you round up Rivian?s virtually zero revenue to $1B, the stock is trading 150x of it.

Tesla as market leader in EV is trading at 25x revenue. 

Either bring me tesla at 150x price point or bring me Rivian at 25x or below. Take a few months to come down to equilibrium. I am happy with either outcome.
 
I'll admit I don't know too much about options. I get the general understanding of it but then I started digging deeper about IV crush and all this much more complicated analysis that is over my head and I'm too busy to figure out at this time.
 
Cares said:
I'll admit I don't know too much about options. I get the general understanding of it but then I started digging deeper about IV crush and all this much more complicated analysis that is over my head and I'm too busy to figure out at this time.

Be very careful...think about it like sitting down at a full poker table at Caesar's on a Saturday night...if you can't spot the sucker immediately...you are it. ;D ;D >:D
 
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