Author Topic: Short Rivian?  (Read 5664 times)

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Offline Cornflakes

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Short Rivian?
« on: November 15, 2021, 09:45:31 PM »
As crazy as stock market is, how many other companies are worth 100B that has no revenue and is burning money?

Over time, Rivian may be successful in bringing great cars out, scal up production, and all good stuff. But that road is at least a few quarters out and the ride has to be bumpy till then.

Offline CalBears96

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #1 on: November 15, 2021, 10:08:41 PM »
Worth more than GM and Ford.

Even then, since the stock doesn't trade on value, it's dangerous to short it.

Offline Cornflakes

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #2 on: November 15, 2021, 10:31:55 PM »
Let's say if your short sell investment horizon is 1 year. In 1 year, how high can Rivian go? 10x? That would be 1T valuation, same as Tesla today.

If that happens, you lose 9x the principal your invested. So, 5k short will lose 45k.

But, if that does happen, I can only imagine what my 401k and crypto holdings will do. If Rivian can hit 10x in a year, why bitcoin will not be 500k, why S&P won't 3x or 5x in a year? I should take 45k loss on Rivian with a smile.

Offline eyephone

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #3 on: November 15, 2021, 10:38:07 PM »
Rivian to the moon! (For now)  8)

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2021, 10:48:47 PM »
Buy puts instead of shorting it, less dangerous.
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Offline eyephone

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2021, 11:10:43 PM »
Rivian to the moon! (For now)  8)

Built in camp kitchen option for Rivian electric pickup.
Amazon plans to deliver 100,000 Rivian EV van.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2021, 11:18:29 PM by eyephone »

Offline CalBears96

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #6 on: November 15, 2021, 11:52:56 PM »
Buy puts instead of shorting it, less dangerous.

Yeah, might as well buy $5k worth of puts. Then only lose $5k.

Offline Cornflakes

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2021, 08:08:46 AM »
Bought a March 70 Put. Will buy some more.  Happy to lose some $ if I am wrong and Rivian shoots up. I think that overall market will go up in that case and will make up somewhere else.

Offline Cares

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #8 on: November 16, 2021, 09:57:55 AM »
I think Rivian is unproven at this time on how they will scale and reach profitability. Tesla took quite a long time to get to that point.

Offline Cornflakes

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #9 on: November 16, 2021, 11:22:58 AM »
The guy that runs three successful companies and has proven track record of solving hardest problem says that scaling up production was the hardest problem and kicked his ass. We'll see if Rivian has magic trick up their sleeve and makes Musk look like fool spending so much time scaling up.

Offline CalBears96

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2021, 12:03:55 PM »
I think the chip shortage is going to affect scaling up production. I also bought a March 70 put just for the heck of it.  ;D

Offline eyephone

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #11 on: November 16, 2021, 12:28:24 PM »
The guy that runs three successful companies and has proven track record of solving hardest problem says that scaling up production was the hardest problem and kicked his ass. We'll see if Rivian has magic trick up their sleeve and makes Musk look like fool spending so much time scaling up.

As of today Amazon owns a 20 percent stake in Rivian.
To the moon!

Offline Cornflakes

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #12 on: November 16, 2021, 02:41:40 PM »
I think the chip shortage is going to affect scaling up production. I also bought a March 70 put just for the heck of it.  ;D

Welcome to the club.

When Rivian doubles from here, will buy more puts.

Anyone who has been on the other side of the table with Amazon as a vendor/supplier (and I have been) will not see Amazon order as a big plus.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2021, 10:54:31 PM »
Buy puts that expire after the IPO lockbox period.
Martin Mania, CPA
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Offline eyephone

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #14 on: November 16, 2021, 11:14:04 PM »
The guy that runs three successful companies and has proven track record of solving hardest problem says that scaling up production was the hardest problem and kicked his ass. We'll see if Rivian has magic trick up their sleeve and makes Musk look like fool spending so much time scaling up.

As of today Amazon owns a 20 percent stake in Rivian.
To the moon!

I might just buy more!

 

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