Author Topic: Short Rivian?  (Read 2858 times)

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Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #45 on: December 24, 2021, 03:14:52 PM »
The only concern I have is the constant narrative that higher interest rates will cause unprofitable companies to collapse in a rising interest rate environment. Rivian and lucid fall into this category. I do think the narrative is quite BS since a lot of these companies are reinvesting in their business instead of pleasing wall st.

This may be the case with Lucid but not Rivian.  Considered rivalry between Bezos and Musk, no way Bezos would let Rivian failed. Worst case scenario, Amazon will take over Rivian.  Bezos needs his delivery fleet going green by 2030.

Agreed. If worse comes to worst, Bezos will just pump money into Rivian. Rivian has the orders. Just need to ramp up production, which will be a bit troublesome initially, until the chip shortage eases off, most likely in 2023.
Ah I wasn’t aware about the Amazon factor. That could potentially hurt amazons earnings. That stock has gone sideways for the past year or two. Although I do think Amazon could post crazy numbers if it wanted to but instead they are constantly investing in the future.

Offline CalBears96

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #46 on: December 24, 2021, 05:05:10 PM »
The only concern I have is the constant narrative that higher interest rates will cause unprofitable companies to collapse in a rising interest rate environment. Rivian and lucid fall into this category. I do think the narrative is quite BS since a lot of these companies are reinvesting in their business instead of pleasing wall st.

This may be the case with Lucid but not Rivian.  Considered rivalry between Bezos and Musk, no way Bezos would let Rivian failed. Worst case scenario, Amazon will take over Rivian.  Bezos needs his delivery fleet going green by 2030.

Agreed. If worse comes to worst, Bezos will just pump money into Rivian. Rivian has the orders. Just need to ramp up production, which will be a bit troublesome initially, until the chip shortage eases off, most likely in 2023.
Ah I wasn’t aware about the Amazon factor. That could potentially hurt amazons earnings. That stock has gone sideways for the past year or two. Although I do think Amazon could post crazy numbers if it wanted to but instead they are constantly investing in the future.

Basically, Amazon has 20% stake in Rivian. Amazon also placed an order for 100,000 electric last-mile delivery vans from Rivian to be delivered by 2030. Amazon hopes to have 10,000 of them on the road as early as next year.

The question is, can Rivian ramp up production? Chip shortage is expected to last throughout 2022 and will only ease off in 2023.

Offline BlackKnight

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #47 on: December 27, 2021, 09:09:23 AM »
The only concern I have is the constant narrative that higher interest rates will cause unprofitable companies to collapse in a rising interest rate environment. Rivian and lucid fall into this category. I do think the narrative is quite BS since a lot of these companies are reinvesting in their business instead of pleasing wall st.

This may be the case with Lucid but not Rivian.  Considered rivalry between Bezos and Musk, no way Bezos would let Rivian failed. Worst case scenario, Amazon will take over Rivian.  Bezos needs his delivery fleet going green by 2030.

Agreed. If worse comes to worst, Bezos will just pump money into Rivian. Rivian has the orders. Just need to ramp up production, which will be a bit troublesome initially, until the chip shortage eases off, most likely in 2023.
Ah I wasn’t aware about the Amazon factor. That could potentially hurt amazons earnings. That stock has gone sideways for the past year or two. Although I do think Amazon could post crazy numbers if it wanted to but instead they are constantly investing in the future.

Basically, Amazon has 20% stake in Rivian. Amazon also placed an order for 100,000 electric last-mile delivery vans from Rivian to be delivered by 2030. Amazon hopes to have 10,000 of them on the road as early as next year.

The question is, can Rivian ramp up production? Chip shortage is expected to last throughout 2022 and will only ease off in 2023.
20% is an understatement. Bezos wants to fully automate last mile delivery and cut fuel costs.  RJ Scaringe needs AWS power and Amazon capital in order to compete with other big boys.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #48 on: December 27, 2021, 09:42:12 AM »
It will be rebranded as the Amazon Fire Truck. :)
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Offline BlackKnight

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #49 on: December 27, 2021, 02:06:10 PM »
It will be rebranded as the Amazon Fire Truck. :)

Fire Truck equiped with Fire tablet as standard feature 😀
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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #50 on: December 28, 2021, 09:42:21 AM »
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.
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Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #51 on: December 30, 2021, 12:05:24 PM »
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.

An interesting trading stock since you've been selling your puts. It's obviously in a downtrend but looking closer it has smaller moves of 12-25% losses (intraday high to intraday low) 2-7 days (lower number of days when it's "more sideways than down and higher number of days when it's slipping more) interspersed with 10-18% rallies from intraday lows to intraday highs 1-3 days long.

Are you planning on selling puts after new years? (I'm thinking they might warn and get a bigger move down than they've had since the last gap down).

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #52 on: December 30, 2021, 04:25:11 PM »
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.

An interesting trading stock since you've been selling your puts. It's obviously in a downtrend but looking closer it has smaller moves of 12-25% losses (intraday high to intraday low) 2-7 days (lower number of days when it's "more sideways than down and higher number of days when it's slipping more) interspersed with 10-18% rallies from intraday lows to intraday highs 1-3 days long.

Are you planning on selling puts after new years? (I'm thinking they might warn and get a bigger move down than they've had since the last gap down).

I've also been selling out of the money calls on any pops (like today).  There is huge implied volatility so the option premiums are high.
Martin Mania, CPA
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Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #53 on: December 30, 2021, 06:24:21 PM »
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.

An interesting trading stock since you've been selling your puts. It's obviously in a downtrend but looking closer it has smaller moves of 12-25% losses (intraday high to intraday low) 2-7 days (lower number of days when it's "more sideways than down and higher number of days when it's slipping more) interspersed with 10-18% rallies from intraday lows to intraday highs 1-3 days long.

Are you planning on selling puts after new years? (I'm thinking they might warn and get a bigger move down than they've had since the last gap down).

I've also been selling out of the money calls on any pops (like today).  There is huge implied volatility so the option premiums are high.

Wish I had seen this stock before you mentioned it. I didn't even notice how frequent the huge moves are because they look like little blips. Once I actually looked at intraday highs and lows I new this has been heaven for swing traders.

So I'm thinking this coronavirus could give us a substantial pull back. I'm guessing the headlines will be a million US cases in a day by Monday (assuming there is enough testing done). It seems that it's a much less deadly virus but enough cases could mean lots of workers not at work and a lot more in the hospital putting a real strain on things for a couple weeks at least.

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #54 on: December 30, 2021, 07:18:00 PM »
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.

An interesting trading stock since you've been selling your puts. It's obviously in a downtrend but looking closer it has smaller moves of 12-25% losses (intraday high to intraday low) 2-7 days (lower number of days when it's "more sideways than down and higher number of days when it's slipping more) interspersed with 10-18% rallies from intraday lows to intraday highs 1-3 days long.

Are you planning on selling puts after new years? (I'm thinking they might warn and get a bigger move down than they've had since the last gap down).

I've also been selling out of the money calls on any pops (like today).  There is huge implied volatility so the option premiums are high.

Wish I had seen this stock before you mentioned it. I didn't even notice how frequent the huge moves are because they look like little blips. Once I actually looked at intraday highs and lows I new this has been heaven for swing traders.

So I'm thinking this coronavirus could give us a substantial pull back. I'm guessing the headlines will be a million US cases in a day by Monday (assuming there is enough testing done). It seems that it's a much less deadly virus but enough cases could mean lots of workers not at work and a lot more in the hospital putting a real strain on things for a couple weeks at least.
I might be wrong but I believe the bottom was in before Xmas. Unless some other variant is introduced that is more deadly, having more cases doesn’t really mean much unless it leads to higher hospitalization and death rates which is not the case currently. Of course things could change. I feel like inflation data points could be more of a factor in market volatility more so than covid at this point.

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #55 on: January 05, 2022, 03:14:49 PM »
Oooff...

 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/rivian-stock-plunges-after-news-of-amazon-stellantis-deal.html

Hope the shorts were in some time ago.

Rivian should still do well selling their pickup truck, but if AMZ is buying delivery trucks from another vendor, that's going to punch a real hole in Rivian's growth plans.
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #56 on: January 05, 2022, 03:55:44 PM »
Seeing more Rivians around Irvine... all employees but it's a nice truck with tons of features... and the reviews are positive.
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Offline CalBears96

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #57 on: January 05, 2022, 04:03:53 PM »
Oooff...

 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/05/rivian-stock-plunges-after-news-of-amazon-stellantis-deal.html

Hope the shorts were in some time ago.

Rivian should still do well selling their pickup truck, but if AMZ is buying delivery trucks from another vendor, that's going to punch a real hole in Rivian's growth plans.

I should have kept my $100 June 2022 put that I bought when Rivian was at $140. Sold it for a bit of gain. :P

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #58 on: Yesterday at 10:11:22 AM »
If you guys want to make a few bucks....keep selling weekly out-of-money puts on PTON.  I've been doing it for the month and it's like a little printing press.

An interesting trading stock since you've been selling your puts. It's obviously in a downtrend but looking closer it has smaller moves of 12-25% losses (intraday high to intraday low) 2-7 days (lower number of days when it's "more sideways than down and higher number of days when it's slipping more) interspersed with 10-18% rallies from intraday lows to intraday highs 1-3 days long.

Are you planning on selling puts after new years? (I'm thinking they might warn and get a bigger move down than they've had since the last gap down).

I've also been selling out of the money calls on any pops (like today).  There is huge implied volatility so the option premiums are high.

Hope no one has sold puts on pton this week.

Offline The California Court Company

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Re: Short Rivian?
« Reply #59 on: Yesterday at 10:23:05 AM »
so we must be near the end of WFH trend…maybe housing price will stabilize soon.
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