Author Topic: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?  (Read 11791 times)

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Offline fatduck

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #45 on: December 07, 2021, 01:56:29 PM »
"equities will go down at some point but might go up first"

I'll take my nobel prize to go

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #46 on: December 07, 2021, 02:34:09 PM »
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

You don't need to short the market to believe we are in a bubble; You simply need to watch the signs and have an exit plan once the music stops.  Lots of money can be made on bubbles.
If you're so confident about a bubble. Why aren't you putting a bet on your strong beliefs? If I was that confident of a bubble, I would put money on my bets. Not sit here and chirp.

what "bubble" are you talking about? Companies right now while trading at rich valuations have services and products that actually give value. It's not some random company that goes public like in the dot com days. Look at PYPL, SQ, DOCU, V, etc. These are one of the best companies in the US that all tanked. A lot of them were due to omnicron over exaggeration and some are earnings.

If you're talking about legit bubbles, it would be a few stocks off the top of my head like Lucid and Rivian. Those are concerning but let's not act like the entire market has valuations like Lucid and Rivian.

I have been through at least 5 major asset bubbles in my 35 year career.  Those in the middle of a bubble (Real estate 07, .com '99,  Gold '12)  they never know they are in one till it's too late.  Asset bubbles unwind over time.  Putting on a short is a trade...very different from a macro trend call.
I don't think you get my point. My point is if you're going to start sounding alarms and feel confident about a bubble, put your money where your mouth is.

I find it hilarious how people like to sound alarms but don't put their money where their mouth is. And guess what? 99% of them are wrong anyways. Then you see them disappear for some time, and they will make another theory and disappear again... The cycle continues until they "hopefully" get right about one of the bubbles they mentioned in the past X years.

TBH I don't even know what point you're trying to convey. That a bubble exists? What bubble are we talking about? And are you making adjustments to your portfolio to show that you believe of this "bubble"?

Offline morekaos

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #47 on: December 07, 2021, 03:25:42 PM »
The question of this thread is a discussion of whether a global crisis is coming and what events today may cause it….not how to protect your portfolio during a sell off. If you want to discuss that, start a thread. This one is currently exploring the possibility that an asset bubble in China may be the focus of that possibility.  Most recessions begin with an asset bubble popping.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #48 on: December 08, 2021, 09:37:16 AM »
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

You don't need to short the market to believe we are in a bubble; You simply need to watch the signs and have an exit plan once the music stops.  Lots of money can be made on bubbles.
If you're so confident about a bubble. Why aren't you putting a bet on your strong beliefs? If I was that confident of a bubble, I would put money on my bets. Not sit here and chirp.

what "bubble" are you talking about? Companies right now while trading at rich valuations have services and products that actually give value. It's not some random company that goes public like in the dot com days. Look at PYPL, SQ, DOCU, V, etc. These are one of the best companies in the US that all tanked. A lot of them were due to omnicron over exaggeration and some are earnings.

If you're talking about legit bubbles, it would be a few stocks off the top of my head like Lucid and Rivian. Those are concerning but let's not act like the entire market has valuations like Lucid and Rivian.

I have been through at least 5 major asset bubbles in my 35 year career.  Those in the middle of a bubble (Real estate 07, .com '99,  Gold '12)  they never know they are in one till it's too late.  Asset bubbles unwind over time.  Putting on a short is a trade...very different from a macro trend call.
I don't think you get my point. My point is if you're going to start sounding alarms and feel confident about a bubble, put your money where your mouth is.

I find it hilarious how people like to sound alarms but don't put their money where their mouth is. And guess what? 99% of them are wrong anyways. Then you see them disappear for some time, and they will make another theory and disappear again... The cycle continues until they "hopefully" get right about one of the bubbles they mentioned in the past X years.

TBH I don't even know what point you're trying to convey. That a bubble exists? What bubble are we talking about? And are you making adjustments to your portfolio to show that you believe of this "bubble"?

Of course I'm positioned based on my view of the market.  Is there anybody in the world that this doesn't apply to?

I've called several bubble right here on TalkIrvine - gold in '12, crypto in '17, and the Irvine home price slump in 2018.  After awhile, these things become easy to spot because the same patterns repeat again and again.

The bubble I'm speaking of today is in the price of money.  Overinflated home prices, stock values, crypto mania, and collectibles are all just symptoms of the larger sickness.  Our economy is in for nasty times ahead.  It's going to be the mother of all hangovers.  By warning people, I'm providing something for them to think about so they can position their portfolios accordingly. 

I'm not naive - I know most readers on this forum are hard-headed and will ignore the data staring them in the face because it means admitting they were wrong, but it's still worthwhile to have the discussion because I'm willing to have my views challenged by them.

« Last Edit: December 08, 2021, 09:44:35 AM by Liar Loan »

Offline morekaos

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #49 on: December 08, 2021, 09:46:28 AM »
I agree...and it is not political.  this is a business cycle and although they all have differences the cycle is the cycle.  the inflation portion of the cycle will give way to a recession...it always does.  Our cycles have become compressed by the Covid situation.   Recession was foisted upon us with the shutdown...followed by compressed expansion and inflation.  Just as Government intervention in the financial and Real estate markets stretched and expanded the length of that growth cycle (never seemed to grow but it really did over 5 Obama years at an excruciatingly slow 1.9% GDB)  This cycle is turbo charged and the fall will be more precipitous but I hope shorter in duration.  the question here is what will start it?   Debt collapse is always a suspect but will it be here or in China?  We are going to see.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #50 on: December 08, 2021, 08:46:08 PM »
This is a problem….

China's vegetable prices surge 30.6% in November as food costs soar

Fresh vegetable prices in China surged by 30.6% in November from a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The price of pork, a staple in Chinese diets, remained well bellow the highs of last year with a year-on-year decline of 32.7% in November. But pork prices rose 12.2% from October.
Food prices are on the rise globally, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/chinas-vegetable-prices-surge-306-25-in-november-as-food-costs-soar/ar-AARD0H1?ocid=uxbndlbing

Offline Cares

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #51 on: December 09, 2021, 12:45:15 PM »

Offline morekaos

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #52 on: December 09, 2021, 03:37:44 PM »
The plot thickens….

Chinese property giant Evergrande defaults on $300billion debt: Beijing prepares 'controlled demolition' of the firm to protect its economy amid fears it could have global consequences

Chinese property giant Evergrande has defaulted on $1.2billion in bond debt
It marks the first time the firm has defaulted on debts totalling some $300billion
Evergrande ran into trouble amid Chinese crackdown on property speculation
There are fears that Evergrande could have knock-on effect on global economy

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10292447/Debt-crippled-Chinese-property-giant-Evergrande-defaults-time.html




Offline eyephone

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #53 on: December 20, 2021, 12:09:20 AM »
CNBC: China's property distress sours steel sector in warning sign for economy

Debt problems at a major Chinese property developer have now spilled over into a vital artery of the nation's industrial engine - the steel sector - and started to ripple through to other critical parts of the world's second-largest economy.

The spreading balance-sheet crisis at real estate firms is a warning for policymakers as a swing in the fortunes of the steel industry would have significant repercussions for China's economy, with cement, glass, and household appliances all vulnerable to demand drops.

Already, steel prices are down from their record highs seen earlier this year due to easing demand from construction activities, which account for over half of the metal's consumption, while steelmakers' share prices have also been hurt.

Share prices of major Chinese listed firms dropped from high levels in recent months on easing demand and lower raw materials prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/12/19/chinas-property-distress-sours-steel-sector-in-warning-sign-for-economy.html




Offline eyephone

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CNBC: Evergrande default is highly likely, S&P says
« Reply #54 on: December 20, 2021, 12:19:57 AM »
CNBC: Evergrande default is highly likely, S&P says

"The firm has lost the capacity to sell new homes, which means its main business model is effectively defunct," the report said.

Highly indebted property developer China Evergrande will likely default because the company has essentially lost its main business, S&P Global Ratings analysts said in a report Thursday.

Evergrande was China's second-largest developer by sales last year. Like many Chinese developers, the company sold apartments to consumers before completion, helping to generate capital for future projects.

But that cash flow cycle is running into problems. Despite the company's ability to sell assets and find ways to make payments in time, "Evergrande's massive debt will catch up with it," the S&P report said.

"The firm has lost the capacity to sell new homes, which means its main business model is effectively defunct. This makes full repayment of its debts unlikely," the analysts said.

"We still believe an Evergrande default is highly likely," the report said.

Evergrande did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment on the S&P report.

While the developer has managed to stave off default with last-minute payments, the analysts said Evergrande's bigger test will be when $3.5 billion comes due for U.S. dollar-denominated notes in March and April next year.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/11/18/china-evergrande-default-is-highly-likely-sp-says.html

No indication that their government is stepping in. Many other companies are experiencing problems.
Tbh it looks like a big mess.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #55 on: December 28, 2021, 09:23:09 AM »
A must read QE programs why and how. What the coming years will look like, if FED do stick to ending it.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/12/28/inflation-interest-rates-thomas-hoenig-federal-reserve-526177

Offline morekaos

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #56 on: January 02, 2022, 10:05:28 PM »
Halted

Asia stocks mixed as trading in 2022 kicks off; Evergrande shares halted

Trading in the shares and structured products of debt-ridden Chinese developer China Evergrande Group was halted in Hong Kong on Monday, according to an exchange notice. No immediate reason was given for the halt.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/03/asia-markets-first-trading-day-of-2022-currencies-oil.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Message

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #57 on: January 03, 2022, 03:46:48 PM »
LOL at the "Irvine home price slump in 2018".

According to a thread here... that was everywhere... not just Irvine... and it turned out to be what? Had you bought anytime around 2018 in Irvine (or somewhere else in the OC like LL contends), you made out... so nothing really to call in 2018.

But I do agree on bubbliness on some of those other things... especially collectibles. :)
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #58 on: January 03, 2022, 03:51:30 PM »
Here is a chart for Irvine RE prices the last 5 years... where is that great slump of 2018? Looks "seasonal". :)



https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #59 on: January 04, 2022, 09:54:27 AM »
Here is a chart for Irvine RE prices the last 5 years... where is that great slump of 2018? Looks "seasonal". :)



https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market

Agreed...The gains look seasonal, while the norm is flat with little to no movement for Irvine.

 

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