Author Topic: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?  (Read 10797 times)

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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #30 on: October 28, 2021, 03:42:24 PM »
Everytime you think shits about to get real, something like this happens:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/china-evergrande-shares-set-slide-012744967.html

A bond extension when they were suppose to go into default OCT 23.

The can will be kicked forever much like USA.


So when we play with stocks or real estate, we are just betting on government interventions. 



Yup, and China has a stronger leg to keep kicking the can down the road for a long time.  I mean, what's the other option...revolution?  Yeah, that's not going to happen.
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Offline eyephone

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #31 on: October 28, 2021, 03:46:11 PM »
CNBC: Empty shelves, gasoline shortages and sky-high energy prices? Britain is facing a ‘difficult winter’

Britain has been plunged into uncertainty as issues over gasoline, electricity and food have prompted warnings of "a really difficult winter" for the country.
A significant lack of truck drivers has meant deliveries of fuel and goods have fallen short.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/24/empty-shelves-and-gasoline-shortages-uk-facing-a-difficult-winter.html
Empty shelves on what items though? PS5? graphic cards? My day to day items that I am buying at Costco is never out of stock. If we are missing day to day items not being in shelves I think that could be a potential issue going forward but that is not the case.

Oil prices have ticked down lately and I think sky high is a bit exaggerated. Don't think these issues would cause a global crisis..

That was a UK article. To show that there is an energy crisis around the world not just in the US as the other misinfo guy likes to state.

Offline eyephone

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #32 on: October 28, 2021, 03:47:37 PM »
Your comment should be for the misinfo guy. (Lies more than Ted tbh)

Offline eyephone

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #33 on: October 28, 2021, 03:48:40 PM »
A lot of people complain about gas prices. Look at the UK some or most places are out of gas and/or have to wait a long time for gas. gg

Offline morekaos

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #34 on: November 04, 2021, 08:09:04 PM »
The dyke is still leaking…

Chinese real estate developer Kaisa halts trading in Hong Kong, as debt concerns escalate

Hong Kong-listed Chinese real estate developer Kaisa Group Holdings and three of its subsidiaries suspended trading in their shares on Friday ahead of the market open.
Kaisa said Thursday that its finance unit missed a payment on a wealth management product, amid increased worries about its strained liquidity.
Among Chinese developers, the company ranks second only to Evergrande in terms of issuance of U.S. dollar-denominated offshore high-yield bonds, according to Natixis.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/china-debt-concerns-property-developer-kaisa-halts-hong-kong-trading.html?



Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #35 on: November 04, 2021, 08:24:00 PM »
I just looked at Kaisa’s market cap. 7B. Baby stuff. Evergrande is ~31B for reference.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #36 on: December 07, 2021, 10:21:50 AM »
It ain't over till its over..

World holds its breath as Chinese property titan Evergrande teeters on the brink of collapse

Financial institutions and developers around the world were on alert after Evergrande warned it will not be able to pay back its debts.

The Chinese property giant is understood to be on the brink of collapse with Asian and Western banks braced for the largest default since Lehman Brothers went bust in 2008.

Evergrande, which has debts of more than £300billion, has been struggling to meet debt repayments since September. Much of the money is owed to firms outside China.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10281101/World-holds-breath-Evergrande-teeters-brink-collapse.html

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Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #37 on: December 07, 2021, 11:38:15 AM »
It ain't over till its over..

World holds its breath as Chinese property titan Evergrande teeters on the brink of collapse

Financial institutions and developers around the world were on alert after Evergrande warned it will not be able to pay back its debts.

The Chinese property giant is understood to be on the brink of collapse with Asian and Western banks braced for the largest default since Lehman Brothers went bust in 2008.

Evergrande, which has debts of more than £300billion, has been struggling to meet debt repayments since September. Much of the money is owed to firms outside China.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10281101/World-holds-breath-Evergrande-teeters-brink-collapse.html


Let's be real, Blackrock holds barely anything.

As for UBS exposure, here is the following quote from them:
"UBS Group AG’s exposure to stricken property developer China Evergrande Group is “immaterial” and limited to the execution of collateral calls on margin loans, Chief Executive Officer Ralph Hamers said Thursday."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/ubs-plays-down-evergrande-exposure-as-dollar-bond-doubts-grow

For Bluebay, it's also limited exposure: "BlueBay told Reuters its holding was "very limited" and that it has been reducing it since August-end."
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-09-27/bluebay-a-buyer-of-evergrande-debt-ashmore-ubs-exposed-morningstar

It's easy to throw articles to try to scare everyone. Just like how there were articles of all these "famous" hedge fund managers going on CNBC or writing an article saying "the worst crash and bubble is yet to come". And here we are today with the S&P up 2%+ and NASDAQ up 3%+

Offline morekaos

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #38 on: December 07, 2021, 11:46:47 AM »
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.

Offline eyephone

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #39 on: December 07, 2021, 11:51:28 AM »
The other issue is China and Taiwan crisis.

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #40 on: December 07, 2021, 11:56:52 AM »
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #41 on: December 07, 2021, 12:01:47 PM »
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

You don't need to short the market to believe we are in a bubble; You simply need to watch the signs and have an exit plan once the music stops.  Lots of money can be made on bubbles.

Offline sleepy5136

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #42 on: December 07, 2021, 12:07:01 PM »
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

You don't need to short the market to believe we are in a bubble; You simply need to watch the signs and have an exit plan once the music stops.  Lots of money can be made on bubbles.
If you're so confident about a bubble. Why aren't you putting a bet on your strong beliefs? If I was that confident of a bubble, I would put money on my bets. Not sit here and chirp.

what "bubble" are you talking about? Companies right now while trading at rich valuations have services and products that actually give value. It's not some random company that goes public like in the dot com days. Look at PYPL, SQ, DOCU, V, etc. These are one of the best companies in the US that all tanked. A lot of them were due to omnicron over exaggeration and some are earnings.

If you're talking about legit bubbles, it would be a few stocks off the top of my head like Lucid and Rivian. Those are concerning but let's not act like the entire market has valuations like Lucid and Rivian.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #43 on: December 07, 2021, 12:40:37 PM »
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

 

Why would I do that?  This is not an investing blog on Robin hood.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Is there a Global Crisis on its way?
« Reply #44 on: December 07, 2021, 12:45:36 PM »
This is following the Japan Late 80's -90's asset crash.  We did just fine.  They flattened out for the next 20 years.  Cycles gotta cycle.
put your money where your mouth is. show us that you are shorting the market. otherwise it's all chirping.

You don't need to short the market to believe we are in a bubble; You simply need to watch the signs and have an exit plan once the music stops.  Lots of money can be made on bubbles.
If you're so confident about a bubble. Why aren't you putting a bet on your strong beliefs? If I was that confident of a bubble, I would put money on my bets. Not sit here and chirp.

what "bubble" are you talking about? Companies right now while trading at rich valuations have services and products that actually give value. It's not some random company that goes public like in the dot com days. Look at PYPL, SQ, DOCU, V, etc. These are one of the best companies in the US that all tanked. A lot of them were due to omnicron over exaggeration and some are earnings.

If you're talking about legit bubbles, it would be a few stocks off the top of my head like Lucid and Rivian. Those are concerning but let's not act like the entire market has valuations like Lucid and Rivian.

I have been through at least 5 major asset bubbles in my 35 year career.  Those in the middle of a bubble (Real estate 07, .com '99,  Gold '12)  they never know they are in one till it's too late.  Asset bubbles unwind over time.  Putting on a short is a trade...very different from a macro trend call.

 

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