Author Topic: Where the market is - Buyer Offers  (Read 25660 times)

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Offline Cares

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #180 on: May 08, 2021, 06:26:30 PM »
https://www.ocregister.com/2021/05/08/orange-county-adds-8-million-dollar-zips-loses-8-bargain-neighborhoods/

This article is more in line with what I'm seeing in the front lines as a realtor and a mortgage loan originator. All OC markets have housing prices that are significantly up from a year ago.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #181 on: May 08, 2021, 06:30:11 PM »
https://www.ocregister.com/2021/05/08/orange-county-adds-8-million-dollar-zips-loses-8-bargain-neighborhoods/

This article is more in line with what I'm seeing in the front lines as a realtor and a mortgage loan originator. All OC markets have housing prices that are significantly up from a year ago.

Yup, prices are now about 15-20% up from last year not only in Irvine but outside of Irvine as well.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #182 on: May 09, 2021, 10:04:41 AM »
Raw materials some double and tripples in price. I know the supply chains and disruption occur since the trade war began under prez T,,,but at 200 % plus for lumbers, the basic building block for homes, that has to be suck big time for home buyers. We still very much rely on too many things from foreign country for many, many basic materials. This will drive not only homes cost, building cost, and many everydays items cost higher. I was NOT suprise by the move up. The only questions is. if we continue to live like Japan economy, will we last as long? They have been running and printing since 1990, with over 230 % GDP debt per year today. WOWZER, that's a long time and still going. I assume we will have the same trajectory.

Offline qwerty

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #183 on: May 09, 2021, 10:51:39 AM »
Is there any alternative to Japan?? I don’t think so.  Once people get used to all of the freebies it’s tough to turn off the spigots. When the masses keep voting to get free stuff it’s a done deal. The government is a black belt at expanding and doesn’t know the meaning of contraction

Offline eyephone

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #184 on: May 09, 2021, 02:27:11 PM »
Raw materials some double and tripples in price. I know the supply chains and disruption occur since the trade war began under prez T,,,but at 200 % plus for lumbers, the basic building block for homes, that has to be suck big time for home buyers. We still very much rely on too many things from foreign country for many, many basic materials. This will drive not only homes cost, building cost, and many everydays items cost higher. I was NOT suprise by the move up. The only questions is. if we continue to live like Japan economy, will we last as long? They have been running and printing since 1990, with over 230 % GDP debt per year today. WOWZER, that's a long time and still going. I assume we will have the same trajectory.

Did you say that previously?
I think I was the only one on TI that talked about the farm subsidies in the billions or trillions. (Government giving money to farmers for not selling)
US tax cuts for business drove up the deficit like a crack add it. The top business still not paying fed income taxes. Plus the trade war negated the tax break.

« Last Edit: May 09, 2021, 02:36:38 PM by eyephone »

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #185 on: May 10, 2021, 08:52:10 AM »
Is there any alternative to Japan?? I don’t think so.  Once people get used to all of the freebies it’s tough to turn off the spigots. When the masses keep voting to get free stuff it’s a done deal. The government is a black belt at expanding and doesn’t know the meaning of contraction

The "Alternative", is when price reaches too high, an unpayable amount, which we will get there, it will stop and stagnate. Even if the FED able and willing to print more, the buying power is meaningless, since you cant buy much with the money that given out. Its like going to a buffet line. You can stuff all you want and after several plates you will slow down and stop. You got no more room for stuff. It gotta give one way or the other. Either, barf up or you know what....That inflation genie has broken out of the bottle.

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #186 on: May 10, 2021, 12:02:42 PM »
Made an offer on this home earlier this morning for a buyer (the home got put on hold because they were only showing the home Fri-Sun).

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/65-Autumn-Sage-92618/home/45376607
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Offline talkirvine

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #187 on: May 10, 2021, 12:59:07 PM »
Raw materials some double and tripples in price. I know the supply chains and disruption occur since the trade war began under prez T,,,but at 200 % plus for lumbers, the basic building block for homes, that has to be suck big time for home buyers. We still very much rely on too many things from foreign country for many, many basic materials. This will drive not only homes cost, building cost, and many everydays items cost higher. I was NOT suprise by the move up. The only questions is. if we continue to live like Japan economy, will we last as long? They have been running and printing since 1990, with over 230 % GDP debt per year today. WOWZER, that's a long time and still going. I assume we will have the same trajectory.

No worries, the shortage of lumber (and therefore price increase) is caused by the pandemic and therefore is only temporary. Why? As the price of lumber actually dropped from 2018 to before the pandemic. After the economy opens, and production catches up, the lumber price will drop. 

Offline talkirvine

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #188 on: May 10, 2021, 12:59:27 PM »
Raw materials some double and tripples in price. I know the supply chains and disruption occur since the trade war began under prez T,,,but at 200 % plus for lumbers, the basic building block for homes, that has to be suck big time for home buyers. We still very much rely on too many things from foreign country for many, many basic materials. This will drive not only homes cost, building cost, and many everydays items cost higher. I was NOT suprise by the move up. The only questions is. if we continue to live like Japan economy, will we last as long? They have been running and printing since 1990, with over 230 % GDP debt per year today. WOWZER, that's a long time and still going. I assume we will have the same trajectory.

No worries, the shortage of lumber (and therefore price increase) is caused by the pandemic and therefore is only temporary. How do I know? As the price of lumber actually dropped from 2018 to before the pandemic. After the economy opens, and production catches up, the lumber price will drop.

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #189 on: May 11, 2021, 01:10:38 PM »
Japan actually went through decades of depreciation, not inflation. Probably not the base case study if you're trying to demonstrate asset inflation.

The only things we are possibly tracking Japan, in terms of fiscal & monetary policy,  would be negative interest rate and blowing through the national debt.

Given the fact that we're already recovering, negative interest rate is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

So that leaves the national debt.

Japan has proven econ experts & conventional econ wisdom wrong for years by demonstrating that a large economy (#3 in the world) can sustain a high level of national debt even with virtually no GDP growth.  (over 250% debt to GDP ratio, negative GDP growth in the past decade)

This is on top of Japan having been on a steady population decline since 1998 & having one of the world's oldest population.

We don't have anywhere close to any of the above problems in the US.

Some people are freaking out over our national debt level, but the truth is we're barely over 100% debt to GDP ratio.

I think some proper context (Japan) should calm the anxiety.

Even though Japan has done QEs like we did, they spent a lot of their debt investing in infrastructures and its people. This is something we didn't do with our QEs.

If you look up various infrastructure scores and education scores, Japan has consistently ranked top in the developed world.

Their train and high speed rail systems are so top notch that approx. 85% of commuters in  Japan goes to work by Train. ( vs less than 5% in north America)

Austerity is unpopular and politically difficult. So yes, we're more likely to follow Japan's trajectory when it comes to the national debt.

Can we sustain Japan level of debt without investing in infrastructures, education etc is a valid question.

But to draw that parallel we are becoming Japan's economy is pre-mature. We have actual GDP growth, population growth, and the USD is still the global reserve currency.



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Offline eyephone

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #190 on: May 11, 2021, 01:46:24 PM »
we are in debt crisis due to the tax reform by trump and the Republican controllers Congress. Why are Republicans in Congress so concerned about the debt. The reformed Tax Bill that automatically put us in debt.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2021, 03:33:14 PM by eyephone »

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #191 on: May 11, 2021, 03:22:14 PM »
Put in an offer significantly over asking for 167 Stellar. List price $800k. Agent said they received 25 offers and are not countering any. Accepted top offer significantly over $900k.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #192 on: May 11, 2021, 06:59:33 PM »
Made an offer on this home earlier this morning for a buyer (the home got put on hold because they were only showing the home Fri-Sun).

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/65-Autumn-Sage-92618/home/45376607

The seller ended up accepting our strong offer and not sending out best & final counters despite there being 5 other offers on the table.  I have worked with the listing agent on a few other very smooth transactions in the past few years so I'm sure that helped my client's offer as well.
Martin Mania, CPA
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Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #193 on: May 11, 2021, 07:26:24 PM »
Put in an offer significantly over asking for 167 Stellar. List price $800k. Agent said they received 25 offers and are not countering any. Accepted top offer significantly over $900k.

Two level 3bd detached condo listed at $800k, way under $500/sf?  That was under listed to get things done quickly.
Martin Mania, CPA
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Offline Cares

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Re: Where the market is - Buyer Offers
« Reply #194 on: May 11, 2021, 11:01:07 PM »
Made an offer on this home earlier this morning for a buyer (the home got put on hold because they were only showing the home Fri-Sun).

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/65-Autumn-Sage-92618/home/45376607

The seller ended up accepting our strong offer and not sending out best & final counters despite there being 5 other offers on the table.  I have worked with the listing agent on a few other very smooth transactions in the past few years so I'm sure that helped my client's offer as well.

Congrats. My buyers were interested in this home but this was definitely out of their budget even at list price. These are the buyers that are hoping to find homes below list price  :(

 

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