[Requesting Suggestions/Recommendations] - First time home buyer

Folks,

I have been renting in Irvine (UCI area) for the past 7 years. Considering the interest rates, I have decided to buy a new home. I just started looking
[list type=decimal]
[*]My budget range in $700k - $900k.
[*]I am looking for a 3+ Bedroom
[*]Would prefer a bedroom on the 1st floor along with kitchen. (Some plans have kitchen on the 2nd floor)
[*]Small to mid size backyard preferred (not a hard requirement)
[*]Have kids in elementary school
[*]Given my range and requirements, I am willing to compromise on my communte/drive time. Work in Irvine, currently.
[*]I am looking for June/July 2021 time-frame. Can move in earlier or wait, if needed.
[*]From my limited research, looks like the avg HOA is $200-$250. Would want to stay in this range.
[*]Can pay extra for the home in comparison to higher HOA.
[/list]

Questions, needing your expert suggestion/recommendation/opinion
[list type=decimal]
[*]I visited Portola Springs Communities. However, communities that are in my range (Celeste, Montara) seem to be sold out. Would you know if there are additional homes planned around there?
[*]I plan to visit Great Park. However with the Memorial/Cemetery and Chemical issue, not sure if I should consider them? On the website, I see some homes available in Rise Park, Novel Park and Cadence Park.
[*]Are there other new communities that are going to be built in Irvine and any rough time frames?
[*]From your experience, what are other things a first time home buyer should consider in the grand scheme of things.
[/list]

Hopefully, your responses help others as well, who are in a similar boat.

Thank you for reading through. Sincere, thanks.
 
For your price range, it's going to be tough to find a 1st floor BR and living/kitchen.

Have you tried looking at Baker Ranch? Not sure about what they have there but price could be a bit lower with floorplans you are looking for.
 
As you mentioned, the new communities in Portola Springs (Montara and Celeste) that would have been a good fit for you are basically sold out. Keep in mind that the Great Park homes will have very high Mello Roos along with high HOA if the property that you purchase is attached (north of $400+ per month).  Have you considered resale homes such as this one in Cypress Village (see link below)?
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/100-Desert-Pne-92620/home/143915259

It has a downstairs bedroom with a full bath along with a small side yard. You may want to consider resale homes as you'll have more options.
 
As USC mentioned, you have to consider Mello roos as well. Certain communities have no more MR while others like the Great Park have very high MR.

Are you 100% dead set on Irvine? There are new Lennar homes down in Lake Forest which are pretty nice but of course it is not IUSD schools.
 
I guess, I will have to expand my search to resale homes pretty soon :)

USCTrojanCPA said:
As you mentioned, the new communities in Portola Springs (Montara and Celeste) that would have been a good fit for you are basically sold out. Keep in mind that the Great Park homes will have very high Mello Roos along with high HOA if the property that you purchase is attached (north of $400+ per month).  Have you considered resale homes such as this one in Cypress Village (see link below)?
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/100-Desert-Pne-92620/home/143915259

It has a downstairs bedroom with a full bath along with a small side yard. You may want to consider resale homes as you'll have more options.
 
Only reason, why; I am considering Irvine is IUSD. Again,  I am not versatile with all the south OC school districts. All hear say that IUSD is the best.

Cares said:
As USC mentioned, you have to consider Mello roos as well. Certain communities have no more MR while others like the Great Park have very high MR.

Are you 100% dead set on Irvine? There are new Lennar homes down in Lake Forest which are pretty nice but of course it is not IUSD schools.
 
newhomebuyer2021 said:
Only reason, why; I am considering Irvine is IUSD. Again,  I am not versatile with all the south OC school districts. All hear say that IUSD is the best.

IUSD is definitely good but if you have a good student, it should not be a huge deal.

IUSD is a good selling point for your house and keeps up housing value.
 
newhomebuyer2021 said:
Only reason, why; I am considering Irvine is IUSD. Again,  I am not versatile with all the south OC school districts. All hear say that IUSD is the best.

You mentioned you are willing to sacrifice drive/commute time. Are you willing to live in Cerritos? Cerritos has top tier schools with many neighborhoods being 10/10/10 ratings for elem/jr/high school.

City is older with most homes built in 1970s but it is very much like an Irvine city which is great for families. Convenient access to 91, 605, and 5 freeways so you're pretty central to greater LA and OC.
 
newhomebuyer2021 said:
Folks,

I have been renting in Irvine (UCI area) for the past 7 years. Considering the interest rates, I have decided to buy a new home. I just started looking

So far all the advice you received is where to look for a home that fits your budget (clearly not irvine based on responses).  I will give you advice that is completely different.  Id wait and see.  I personally think it is a horrible time to buy.  Its taboo on this website to tell people not to buy a house because most people bought homes here when they were actually affordable and they have done well.  Unfortunately I think times are different for younger new buyers and the past performances of most people on this website should not influence the decisions of new younger buyers today.

Rates are rock bottom, prices have accelerated in the past few months, inventory is very low.  All these things are working against you right now.  Will things get even worse?  Perhaps.  However when things are usually at one extreme, it cannot continue.  I think FOMO is driving you and many others to make the decision to buy in this current climate. 

Good luck to you.
 
kpatnps said:
newhomebuyer2021 said:
Folks,

I have been renting in Irvine (UCI area) for the past 7 years. Considering the interest rates, I have decided to buy a new home. I just started looking

So far all the advice you received is where to look for a home that fits your budget (clearly not irvine based on responses).  I will give you advice that is completely different.  Id wait and see.  I personally think it is a horrible time to buy.  Its taboo on this website to tell people not to buy a house because most people bought homes here when they were actually affordable and they have done well.  Unfortunately I think times are different for younger new buyers and the past performances of most people on this website should not influence the decisions of new younger buyers today.

Rates are rock bottom, prices have accelerated in the past few months, inventory is very low.  All these things are working against you right now.  Will things get even worse?  Perhaps.  However when things are usually at one extreme, it cannot continue.  I think FOMO is driving you and many others to make the decision to buy in this current climate. 

Good luck to you.

Here's a thought exercise, would you rather pay a higher purchase price with low interest rates or lower price with higher interest rates? Let's say you buy a home today at $800k with 20% down and the rate is roughly 2.5%. Versus the alternative of waiting on interest rates increase by 0.5% but you get lower home price of $775k?

$800,000 at 2.5% = $2,528
$775,000 at 3% = $2,613

The same home price would have to drop to $750,000 (-6%) in order to equal to buying now at $800,000. I think it is something to consider. There is a cost of waiting associated with waiting out a "bubble." I also do not think starter homes in Irvine are going to experience such a decline in value due to limited supply.
 
Jerome Powell has signaled he will let inflation run "moderately" in 2021. 
So what now?

Dow 32,000
cash trash.


& my costco brisket inflation indicator will be $4.99/LB on MAR 2021 while alasken king crab legs jumps to $29.99/LB.
Current prices:
Brisket ~ $3.99
King Crab ~ $26.99


What have we learned from firing the huge 3 trillion dollar bazooka called the Heroes act?....print early and print a lot.
 
kpatnps said:
newhomebuyer2021 said:
Folks,

I have been renting in Irvine (UCI area) for the past 7 years. Considering the interest rates, I have decided to buy a new home. I just started looking

So far all the advice you received is where to look for a home that fits your budget (clearly not irvine based on responses).  I will give you advice that is completely different.  Id wait and see.  I personally think it is a horrible time to buy.  Its taboo on this website to tell people not to buy a house because most people bought homes here when they were actually affordable and they have done well.  Unfortunately I think times are different for younger new buyers and the past performances of most people on this website should not influence the decisions of new younger buyers today.

Rates are rock bottom, prices have accelerated in the past few months, inventory is very low.  All these things are working against you right now.  Will things get even worse?  Perhaps.  However when things are usually at one extreme, it cannot continue.  I think FOMO is driving you and many others to make the decision to buy in this current climate. 

Good luck to you.

I agree but with the caveat of affordability and stability. Meaning, only buy if you have the financial means to do so for the next 10 years... Irvine or anywhere.
 
If you think we will get another 1.5 trillion dollar stimulus, then you should buy now.
If you think Mitch McConnell will be able to delay the stimulus package and even stop it from realization, then wait to buy.
 
Cares said:
kpatnps said:
newhomebuyer2021 said:
Folks,

I have been renting in Irvine (UCI area) for the past 7 years. Considering the interest rates, I have decided to buy a new home. I just started looking

So far all the advice you received is where to look for a home that fits your budget (clearly not irvine based on responses).  I will give you advice that is completely different.  Id wait and see.  I personally think it is a horrible time to buy.  Its taboo on this website to tell people not to buy a house because most people bought homes here when they were actually affordable and they have done well.  Unfortunately I think times are different for younger new buyers and the past performances of most people on this website should not influence the decisions of new younger buyers today.

Rates are rock bottom, prices have accelerated in the past few months, inventory is very low.  All these things are working against you right now.  Will things get even worse?  Perhaps.  However when things are usually at one extreme, it cannot continue.  I think FOMO is driving you and many others to make the decision to buy in this current climate. 

Good luck to you.

Here's a thought exercise, would you rather pay a higher purchase price with low interest rates or lower price with higher interest rates? Let's say you buy a home today at $800k with 20% down and the rate is roughly 2.5%. Versus the alternative of waiting on interest rates increase by 0.5% but you get lower home price of $775k?

$800,000 at 2.5% = $2,528
$775,000 at 3% = $2,613

The same home price would have to drop to $750,000 (-6%) in order to equal to buying now at $800,000. I think it is something to consider. There is a cost of waiting associated with waiting out a "bubble." I also do not think starter homes in Irvine are going to experience such a decline in value due to limited supply.

Yes, but that exercise excludes the gain. Provided the home is owned for less than 24.5 years, and excluding refinance possibilities, one would be better off paying less for the house and more for the borrowed money.

 
zubs said:
If you think we will get another 1.5 trillion dollar stimulus, then you should buy now.
If you think Mitch McConnell will be able to delay the stimulus package and even stop it from realization, then wait to buy.

I think Cocaine Mitch will give in and we'll see another stimulus package of $1.2 to $1.8 trillion by the end of Jan. The longer they wait the more the Fed's printing press will run by buying up mortgage and gov't bonds. Print baby print.
 
peregrine said:
Cares said:
kpatnps said:
newhomebuyer2021 said:
Folks,

I have been renting in Irvine (UCI area) for the past 7 years. Considering the interest rates, I have decided to buy a new home. I just started looking

So far all the advice you received is where to look for a home that fits your budget (clearly not irvine based on responses).  I will give you advice that is completely different.  Id wait and see.  I personally think it is a horrible time to buy.  Its taboo on this website to tell people not to buy a house because most people bought homes here when they were actually affordable and they have done well.  Unfortunately I think times are different for younger new buyers and the past performances of most people on this website should not influence the decisions of new younger buyers today.

Rates are rock bottom, prices have accelerated in the past few months, inventory is very low.  All these things are working against you right now.  Will things get even worse?  Perhaps.  However when things are usually at one extreme, it cannot continue.  I think FOMO is driving you and many others to make the decision to buy in this current climate. 

Good luck to you.

Here's a thought exercise, would you rather pay a higher purchase price with low interest rates or lower price with higher interest rates? Let's say you buy a home today at $800k with 20% down and the rate is roughly 2.5%. Versus the alternative of waiting on interest rates increase by 0.5% but you get lower home price of $775k?

$800,000 at 2.5% = $2,528
$775,000 at 3% = $2,613

The same home price would have to drop to $750,000 (-6%) in order to equal to buying now at $800,000. I think it is something to consider. There is a cost of waiting associated with waiting out a "bubble." I also do not think starter homes in Irvine are going to experience such a decline in value due to limited supply.

Yes, but that exercise excludes the gain. Provided the home is owned for less than 24.5 years, and excluding refinance possibilities, one would be better off paying less for the house and more for the borrowed money.

I totally agree with you that we are getting a lot of FOMO out there based upon what I'm seeing out there.  When my buyers are dealing with homes that have 10+ offers on just about every home they are making offers on it's clear the FOMO cool-aid is flowing strong. Biggest problem is the lack of inventory as I mentioned, it's inventory levels that determine where prices are heading in the short term. Unfortunately, current inventory levels along with the demand do point to further price increases (especially in the low and middle market). I personally don't think these mid 2% interest rates won't last beyond 2021 once inflation starts kicking in when the majority of the world is vaccinated.
 
There will be some inventory coming online in Tustin legacy next spring. On the Irvine border so cheaper price with a lot of the same benefits of living in Irvine. The elementary school is open a and Tustin legacy magnet academy (6-12) opened this fall. The grading has already started.

The approximately 25-acre infill site is bounded by Barranca Parkway, Tustin Ranch Road, Armstrong Avenue and Legacy Road, with easy access to the new FLIGHT creative office campus to the west and The District shopping and entertainment district to the east.

The new Brookfield Residential homes offer three design styles: attached stacked flats and row townhomes, as well as luxury single-family homes:

154 stacked flats: Three-story buildings with elevators and homes 1,000 to over 2,200 square feet with up to three bedrooms.
129 row townhomes: Three-story row towns from 1,900 to over 2,200 square feet with up to four bedrooms.
117 single-family homes: Two- and three-story residences from 2,400 to over 3,300 square feet with up to five bedrooms.
The 400 new homes will be constructed in phases under a revised timeline. Site preparation and grading is anticipated to begin in Fall 2020, followed by construction of major infrastructure. Model home completion is expected in Spring 2022.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
peregrine said:
Cares said:
kpatnps said:
newhomebuyer2021 said:
Folks,

I have been renting in Irvine (UCI area) for the past 7 years. Considering the interest rates, I have decided to buy a new home. I just started looking

So far all the advice you received is where to look for a home that fits your budget (clearly not irvine based on responses).  I will give you advice that is completely different.  Id wait and see.  I personally think it is a horrible time to buy.  Its taboo on this website to tell people not to buy a house because most people bought homes here when they were actually affordable and they have done well.  Unfortunately I think times are different for younger new buyers and the past performances of most people on this website should not influence the decisions of new younger buyers today.

Rates are rock bottom, prices have accelerated in the past few months, inventory is very low.  All these things are working against you right now.  Will things get even worse?  Perhaps.  However when things are usually at one extreme, it cannot continue.  I think FOMO is driving you and many others to make the decision to buy in this current climate. 

Good luck to you.

Here's a thought exercise, would you rather pay a higher purchase price with low interest rates or lower price with higher interest rates? Let's say you buy a home today at $800k with 20% down and the rate is roughly 2.5%. Versus the alternative of waiting on interest rates increase by 0.5% but you get lower home price of $775k?

$800,000 at 2.5% = $2,528
$775,000 at 3% = $2,613

The same home price would have to drop to $750,000 (-6%) in order to equal to buying now at $800,000. I think it is something to consider. There is a cost of waiting associated with waiting out a "bubble." I also do not think starter homes in Irvine are going to experience such a decline in value due to limited supply.

Yes, but that exercise excludes the gain. Provided the home is owned for less than 24.5 years, and excluding refinance possibilities, one would be better off paying less for the house and more for the borrowed money.

I totally agree with you that we are getting a lot of FOMO out there based upon what I'm seeing out there.  When my buyers are dealing with homes that have 10+ offers on just about every home they are making offers on it's clear the FOMO cool-aid is flowing strong. Biggest problem is the lack of inventory as I mentioned, it's inventory levels that determine where prices are heading in the short term. Unfortunately, current inventory levels along with the demand do point to further price increases (especially in the low and middle market). I personally don't think these mid 2% interest rates won't last beyond 2021 once inflation starts kicking in when the majority of the world is vaccinated.

Like all you have mentioned, FOMO is definitely playing a part (given the rates). However, due to limited inventory, I personally also feel prices (price/sqft) are on the higher side. (Not that it is wrong. It is simple demand and supply). Just that folks like me in a similar boat are having a tough time deciding if now (~Mid 2021) would be a right time to own a home. Only, time (next couple of months) will tell, where we as a country/economy will be. For now, it is wait and watch from the sidelines for me especially with how things (Covid and its downstream effect) is again on the rise. Although, I doubt if Covid had -ve impact  (if any) to the housing industry and Irvine specifically.
 
newhomebuyer2021 said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
peregrine said:
Cares said:
kpatnps said:
newhomebuyer2021 said:
Folks,

I have been renting in Irvine (UCI area) for the past 7 years. Considering the interest rates, I have decided to buy a new home. I just started looking

So far all the advice you received is where to look for a home that fits your budget (clearly not irvine based on responses).  I will give you advice that is completely different.  Id wait and see.  I personally think it is a horrible time to buy.  Its taboo on this website to tell people not to buy a house because most people bought homes here when they were actually affordable and they have done well.  Unfortunately I think times are different for younger new buyers and the past performances of most people on this website should not influence the decisions of new younger buyers today.

Rates are rock bottom, prices have accelerated in the past few months, inventory is very low.  All these things are working against you right now.  Will things get even worse?  Perhaps.  However when things are usually at one extreme, it cannot continue.  I think FOMO is driving you and many others to make the decision to buy in this current climate. 

Good luck to you.

Here's a thought exercise, would you rather pay a higher purchase price with low interest rates or lower price with higher interest rates? Let's say you buy a home today at $800k with 20% down and the rate is roughly 2.5%. Versus the alternative of waiting on interest rates increase by 0.5% but you get lower home price of $775k?

$800,000 at 2.5% = $2,528
$775,000 at 3% = $2,613

The same home price would have to drop to $750,000 (-6%) in order to equal to buying now at $800,000. I think it is something to consider. There is a cost of waiting associated with waiting out a "bubble." I also do not think starter homes in Irvine are going to experience such a decline in value due to limited supply.

Yes, but that exercise excludes the gain. Provided the home is owned for less than 24.5 years, and excluding refinance possibilities, one would be better off paying less for the house and more for the borrowed money.

I totally agree with you that we are getting a lot of FOMO out there based upon what I'm seeing out there.  When my buyers are dealing with homes that have 10+ offers on just about every home they are making offers on it's clear the FOMO cool-aid is flowing strong. Biggest problem is the lack of inventory as I mentioned, it's inventory levels that determine where prices are heading in the short term. Unfortunately, current inventory levels along with the demand do point to further price increases (especially in the low and middle market). I personally don't think these mid 2% interest rates won't last beyond 2021 once inflation starts kicking in when the majority of the world is vaccinated.

Like all you have mentioned, FOMO is definitely playing a part (given the rates). However, due to limited inventory, I personally also feel prices (price/sqft) are on the higher side. (Not that it is wrong. It is simple demand and supply). Just that folks like me in a similar boat are having a tough time deciding if now (~Mid 2021) would be a right time to own a home. Only, time (next couple of months) will tell, where we as a country/economy will be. For now, it is wait and watch from the sidelines for me especially with how things (Covid and its downstream effect) is again on the rise. Although, I doubt if Covid had -ve impact  (if any) to the housing industry and Irvine specifically.

Covid did cause a 3-5% price drop (one the lower side for the low-end market) for homes that closed in April/May that got into contract in late March/April so the dip was very short-lived. Then interest rates started decreasing with the Fed purchases and the lower end buyers started coming back in May (the lower end is most interest-rate sensitive as they tend to focus on the total monthly cost) and the rest was history. 
 
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