99% Survival rate

[irvinehomeowner]

@Mety: What evidence do you have to come to the conclusion that the numbers are skewed. And which numbers are you referring to?

[Mety]

@Mety: What evidence do you have to come to the conclusion that the numbers are skewed. And which numbers are you referring to?

Covid infection and death rates we have in public are very unreliable. I'm sure none of you believe the public rates they put out in China or N. Korea. Sure, the US might have better accurate numbers overall in anything, but strange things pop up time to time. Couple things to point.

1. The test kits are known to be very unreliable since they keep giving different results.

2. CDC once said only 6% of Covid death numbers they have in public were "solely" from Covid based on the death certificates.

3. Hospitals run Covid test when you're admitted even if you're not a Covid patient. With unreliable test results and marking patient as Covid patient/death by default in case of positive, which BTW might come out negative next day, the numbers would not be 100% accurate overall.

4. Pre-existing condition patients are being marked as a Covid patient even if the other condition was more severe.

5. Many public figures who had Covid survive fine no matter what they support politically. Many say they had no or a little symptoms, some say they felt real bad couple days, but many other diseases also give real bad experiences.

6. Not sure if it's just me, but you guys don't feel like you're being controlled somehow? Sure, this is more of a personal feeling rather than evidence, but I somehow feel like this whole world is being tested in some sort of a way. Call me crazy

7. Even if all of the above weren't the issue, we still have the public number about 2% death rate. That IMHO is not something to sacrifice 98% of the population. People say other countries are doing much better than this country. So are they sacrificing like 99% of the population then? What's going on in this world?

[nosuchreality]

I don't think anyone (or least I'm not) trying to make someone feel bad for not staying home.  I'm just trying to understand.  So qwerty has stated that he wears masks, believes they are somewhat effective (sorry I skim the forum so I'm not sure where you have landed on this issue but I think this is the case) and DOES NOT want to get COVID, then going to an indoor gathering with 15-20 people when cases are at an all time high isn't logical to me.  If he says, he doesn't care if he gets it, then ok, I get why he's going.  If he says, everyone at his dinner party will be laying super low for 10 days prior to said gathering, ok, cool, pretty low risk.  If he says, everyone at his dinner party will be tested NBA style every day prior to eating turkey together, logical decision.  Or even if he said, we know the risk, but we're going to wear masks and try to be 6 feet apart and keep the meal short/sweet/outdoors. But he's saying none of those things and his actions contradict what he's saying about COVID.

Sorry qwerty - you know I'm your number 1 fan. Just using you as an example because you volunteered your turkey day plans

But what is the real exposure risk?  Public health impacts of lots of people gathering is very different than individual family outcomes,

If they are OC centric and it basically three families, the risk really is minimal.  He has  1/3 rd exposure already in his own family.

Our 14 day case count is 8800 according to the State dashboard.  If you assume 2 additional undiagnosed for every diagnosed, we are at 26,400.  Of those, how many of the 8800 are sick and know it, how many of the 17,600 asymptomatic are no longer infectious very peak infectivity  How infectious is a day 14 non-symptomatic person? 

Hypothetically maybe 20,000 infective walking around. That’s out of 3.2 million. That’s 0.006, at 8 non family people that’s 5%.  That, IMO, seems like a very high approximation of upper bound on risk.  I suspect the risk closer to 1%, given the way families separate duties for exposing themselves to the grocery stores etc. 

The risk profile is also lower, IMO, if all of their approaches are similar and not restaurant dining in,  going to stores to browse shop versus get in, get out, maskers versus chin diaperer,  etc.

Then if you are exposed, if they otherwise healthy 40-somethings, 2/3rds of the sick will be asymptomatic without noticeable impacts.  Of the remaining 1/3rd, that are symptomatic, for 40-49 yo, their survivability is 99.6% (5770 deaths/ 1402000 cases)

So we are looking at 1-5% exposure risk, 33% noticeably infected, with a 99.6% survivability.  That cranks out to a 0.007% risk of death for him, spouse and the kids are way less..

From a public health standpoint it is very different, that gathering represents 7% chance that 12 people have close contact and subsequent infection.

False confidence maybe, but if they are doing basic precautions what is the risk of a relatively small twelve person gathering.

JIMHO, local family gatherings are different than people traveling 100s or thousands of miles. 12/15 is very different than 30+. 

Besides I drove by The district this afternoon, JIMHO, Q’s gathering isn’t going blow up our numbers, that District crowd will.

[bones]

I don’t know. He just told me it’s like being in a burning building. Shrug.

[icey]

The death rate is only part of the story. It also doesn't talk about people who have recovered and have sustained irreversible damage to their lungs, along with other organs. There's all kinds of blood clotting and inflammation issues that come with the disease and we still don't fully understand the long term damage.

Stay safe out there people.

[irvinehomeowner]

@Mety: What evidence do you have to come to the conclusion that the numbers are skewed. And which numbers are you referring to?

Covid infection and death rates we have in public are very unreliable. I'm sure none of you believe the public rates they put out in China or N. Korea. Sure, the US might have better accurate numbers overall in anything, but strange things pop up time to time. Couple things to point.

1. The test kits are known to be very unreliable since they keep giving different results.

2. CDC once said only 6% of Covid death numbers they have in public were "solely" from Covid based on the death certificates.

Every naysayer likes to point out this CDC statement. I suggest you go back and re-read what it actually says.

Let me help you out:

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/09/cdc-did-not-admit-only-6-of-recorded-deaths-from-covid-19/

3. Hospitals run Covid test when you're admitted even if you're not a Covid patient. With unreliable test results and marking patient as Covid patient/death by default in case of positive, which BTW might come out negative next day, the numbers would not be 100% accurate overall.

4. Pre-existing condition patients are being marked as a Covid patient even if the other condition was more severe.

You know all this as a fact? Sounds like voter fraud. Again, check your facts.

5. Many public figures who had Covid survive fine no matter what they support politically. Many say they had no or a little symptoms, some say they felt real bad couple days, but many other diseases also give real bad experiences.

Are you sure? More than a few public figures have died from Covid. Are you seeing a trend to my responses?

6. Not sure if it's just me, but you guys don't feel like you're being controlled somehow? Sure, this is more of a personal feeling rather than evidence, but I somehow feel like this whole world is being tested in some sort of a way. Call me crazy

I think there is something off, sounds very conspiracy theory-like. Especially when you started saying that public health mandates are persecution of churches.

7. Even if all of the above weren't the issue, we still have the public number about 2% death rate. That IMHO is not something to sacrifice 98% of the population. People say other countries are doing much better than this country. So are they sacrificing like 99% of the population then? What's going on in this world?

How is 98% being sacrificed? You do realize that 2% could be much higher if we don't continue to observe certain safety measures/protocols. Do you also not get "flattening the curve" like qwerty?

[Mety]

@IHO,

The article you linked about CDC talks about how it could be misleading since Trump tweeted in such way. It’s not denying about the 6%. It says,

“That means that 6% of those who died with COVID-19 through Aug. 15 didn’t have any other reported conditions.”

BTW just to clarify, I wasn’t saying 6% is the real number. I’m saying how we would never know the real number since you were asking why I think the numbers are skewed.

Have you got nothing to say about the unreliable testing kits? That’s the main issue I labeled since we’re all depending on that result.

You’re free to think however you want to think. It all comes down to what you end up believing. Of course you’ll say you’re just following logic.

[nosuchreality]

Mety, that is known as the fallacy of perfection.

The CDC clarified that 6% number reiterating that covid tends to cause lots of issues in the body, those issues get noted if present at time of death which is why covid being listed solely isn’t the gotcha people want it to be.

Here’s the CDC excess deaths report January to September 2020.  It is 299,000 deaths above the average expected deaths. A lot of those are tagged covid, quite few, are not.  Either way, it basically is 100,000 excess deaths every three months.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6942e2-H.pdf

[qwerty]

@iho - get your facts straight. The 2% would not be higher. Perhaps the overall death count but not the 2%. Get your logic straight!!! :-)

Happy thanksgiving!!

[irvinehomeowner]

@IHO,

The article you linked about CDC talks about how it could be misleading since Trump tweeted in such way. It’s not denying about the 6%. It says,

“That means that 6% of those who died with COVID-19 through Aug. 15 didn’t have any other reported conditions.”

BTW just to clarify, I wasn’t saying 6% is the real number. I’m saying how we would never know the real number since you were asking why I think the numbers are skewed.

You still didn't read the whole article. That 6% number is not what you are saying it is. Here, let me post the relevant portion for you:

The following morning, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, clarified what the CDC data mean.

He noted that the 6% figure includes cases where COVID-19 was listed as the only cause of death. “That does not mean that someone who has hypertension or diabetes who dies of Covid didn’t die of Covid-19. They did,” Fauci said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

“So the numbers you’ve been hearing — the 180,000-plus deaths — are real deaths from Covid-19. Let [there] not be any confusion about that,” Fauci said.

I think what you call "believe" is really only "see what you want to see regardless of the facts (or logic)".

Have you got nothing to say about the unreliable testing kits? That’s the main issue I labeled since we’re all depending on that result.

That's why I asked which numbers. I've already explained multiple times that number of cases, percentages, etc will always be a moving, inexact target, you need to look at positivity rate and actual number of deaths (which you don't "believe").

You’re free to think however you want to think. It all comes down to what you end up believing.

Yes, this seems to be your own philosophy and disconnect here.

Of course you’ll say you’re just following logic.

Of course you still don't understand what my definition of logic is.

[irvinehomeowner]

@iho - get your facts straight. The 2% would not be higher. Perhaps the overall death count but not the 2%. Get your logic straight!!! :-)

Wow... you still don't understand flattening the curve? I thought you were attend Zoom math with your daughter?

Happy thanksgiving!!

You too... but please watch out for any signs of fire.

[Mety]

@IHO,

You’re still missing my point. The point is numbers are inaccurate. I also said even if it was accurate and all, 2% still doesn’t justify 98% of people being restricted. We’re circling the same thing over and over.

Anyways... Happy Thanksgiving! Hope you feel true thanksgiving of having Jesus as your Lord regardless of what circumstances or arguments we may have.

[Mety]

Mety, that is known as the fallacy of perfection.

The CDC clarified that 6% number reiterating that covid tends to cause lots of issues in the body, those issues get noted if present at time of death which is why covid being listed solely isn’t the gotcha people want it to be.

Here’s the CDC excess deaths report January to September 2020.  It is 299,000 deaths above the average expected deaths. A lot of those are tagged covid, quite few, are not.  Either way, it basically is 100,000 excess deaths every three months.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6942e2-H.pdf

Exactly. We don't know the real number and we never will probably. I do agree that Covid is giving people more health issues and even more deaths. I'm not saying Covid isn't real. I'm just arguing we're all looking at flawed datas after all. You along with many, maybe most, will say the numbers aren't too off, saying that's the fact and logic. A few and I are saying it's something we can't really trust. Either way, I support being careful so wash your hands, wear your masks and try to come not to close to others unless you really have to. I just don't see closing down and all that much restrictions are really necessary though.

[qwerty]

From USA Today:

“CDC report: US misses 8 COVID cases for every 1 counted

The United States is still severely undercounting the number of COVID-19 cases it has across its population, a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report says. The CDC calculated that about 53 million Americans had been infected by the end of September, eight times below the confirmed cases at the time.

A previous CDC report had estimated the U.S. was undercounting cases by 10 times the amount. Of the 53 million estimated infections, the CDC says about 45 million were sick at some point and about 2.4 million were hospitalized.”

So if I’m doing the math right, 263,000 deaths divided by 53,000,000 that would put the death rate just a bit under half of one percent (.0049). Math is math!!

[nosuchreality]

From USA Today:

“CDC report: US misses 8 COVID cases for every 1 counted

The United States is still severely undercounting the number of COVID-19 cases it has across its population, a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report says. The CDC calculated that about 53 million Americans had been infected by the end of September, eight times below the confirmed cases at the time.

A previous CDC report had estimated the U.S. was undercounting cases by 10 times the amount. Of the 53 million estimated infections, the CDC says about 45 million were sick at some point and about 2.4 million were hospitalized.”

So if I’m doing the math right, 263,000 deaths divided by 53,000,000 that would put the death rate just a bit under half of one percent (.0049). Math is math!!

Honestly that would be wonderful.

Unfortunately, I can find many sites touting the same headline but not a single one linking the CDC report.  I know earlier in June the CDC reported 10x over, but that was in specific regional areas.