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Offline nosuchreality

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99% Survival rate
« on: November 22, 2020, 10:53:48 AM »
Covid has a roughly 99% survival rate.  People tout it as a panacea for reopening.

For comparison, skydiving, a perceived notably risky undertaking had 3.3 million jumps in 2019.  It had 15 fatalities.

Skydiving has a 99.9995% survival rate.

Covid is 2000 times more deadly than jumping from a plane.

According to BTS and NHTSA , 38,800 people died in vehicle crashes in 2019, near the 38,000+ annual average.  The people USA also made 411 Billion vehicle trips (not miles, trips).

That is a 99.99999% survival rate. 
 
Covid is one hundred thousand times more deadly than a vehicle trip.



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Offline aquabliss

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2020, 01:54:02 PM »
Sorry, COVID survival rate is much higher than 99%.  Millions of people have had it and are asymptomatic and will never be tested.   Millions others had very mild symptoms and never got tested. 

Also, tens of thousands have died from strokes, heart attacks, and cancers in the last 8 months who had a COVID test when they entered the hospital.  If they tested positive for COVID they are labeled as a COVID death even if they never had symptoms.

I have a friend whose father passed from a stroke and got a COVID test as soon as he was admitted to the hospital.  They marked his death as COVID.  I have a colleague whose son was in an auto accident with a girl who was fatally injured.  She received a COVID test as soon as she got to the hospital.  She tested positive and succumbed to her injuries a couple days later.  Most likely this was marked as COVID death but I don’t know the family in this case.

I guarantee there are thousands of examples like this, combined with positive cases who haven’t been tested.

COVID survival rate is probably neck and neck with skydiving or better.

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Offline StarmanMBA

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2020, 02:12:02 PM »
Covid has a roughly 99% survival rate.  People tout it as a panacea for reopening.

 
Covid is one hundred thousand times more deadly than a vehicle trip.

Your faux statistics are wrong for several reasons.
First, you cite only vehicle accidents for the United States.  Africa, to name but one example, has fatality rates orders of magnitude higher.

Secondly, you are quoting the fatality rates which are overwhelmingly people in their seventies, eighties and nineties, who according to the CDC had, on average, 2.6 ADDITIONAL predisposing medical conditions contributing to their deaths.

Of the deceased who had ONLY Covid-19, the number is around 10,000 in the United States.

Fear to your heart's content. It is a very powerful driving force, particularly among the anti-science Left.  "FEAR climate change."  "FEAR Trump."
FEAR Covid-19."  "Stranger danger."

Oh please.  Common sense and judgment trump your fears.

http://CovidFacts.blogspot.com

"There are only two kinds of people, decent and indecent." - Elie Wiesel

« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2018, 01:29:58 pm »
qwerty
Hey StarmanMBA - go fuck yourself :-)

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Offline Mety

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2020, 01:33:30 PM »
Yeah, I think I'm more like aquabliss and StarmanMBA on this matter. It's funny how the opinions are divided by political preferences though. Most Democrats will see Covid in one way and Republicans the other. I try to see things as unbiased as possible, but you might not see me that way.

A question for nosuchreality. If the percentage of fatality rate of vehicle crashes increases, do you think we should be banned to drive altogether?

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2020, 01:41:32 PM »
I'm neither Republican or Democrat... I see it logically.

I understand that anti-Covid feel it's not as serious as Coviders but this is still a deadly virus that has unknown long term effects.

Does anyone here want to get cancer or diabetes?
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Offline Mety

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2020, 01:48:13 PM »
I'm neither Republican or Democrat... I see it logically.

I understand that anti-Covid feel it's not as serious as Coviders but this is still a deadly virus that has unknown long term effects.

Does anyone here want to get cancer or diabetes?

You see it logically that fits in your logic which might not be logical for others. But I don't think you try to fit nonlogical into logical or anything mostly so I get what you mean.

People also talk about the long term effects. How do we know? We've only had this virus less than a year now. Who decides it will side effect people long term? Sure, there has been other coronaviruses before, but isn't this one special unique disease that everyone needed to be put into a long pandemic? I'm trying to see logically here.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2020, 01:53:31 PM »
I'm neither Republican or Democrat... I see it logically.

I understand that anti-Covid feel it's not as serious as Coviders but this is still a deadly virus that has unknown long term effects.

Does anyone here want to get cancer or diabetes?

You see it logically that fits in your logic which might not be logical for others. But I don't think you try to fit nonlogical into logical or anything mostly so I get what you mean.

People also talk about the long term effects. How do we know? We've only had this virus less than a year now. Who decides it will side effect people long term? Sure, there has been other coronaviruses before, but isn't this one special unique disease that everyone needed to be put into a long pandemic? I'm trying to see logically here.

On the one hand...we have a ton of data and scientists/medical experts/public health officials saying that the virus is really really bad, has killed lots and lots of people, and will kill lots more people if we don't do certain things.  ERs, hospitals, and medical staffs are being overwhelming and asking the public to help them. 

We have studies that show people having long-term effects as a result of COVID with more studies needed as to whether those effects are permanent.

On the other hand, we have people who say "hey we are sure that lots of people have had it and thus the disease isn't that bad" and politicians/pundits screaming about how putting on a mask is what George Washington fought against. 

Which side is logical and which side is not?

« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 02:36:30 PM by Irvinecommuter »

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Offline Goriot

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2020, 01:57:14 PM »
Anyways, Low or high survivability aside, Covid-19 directly caused an "incremental" 250,000 deaths so far in the U.S. and 1.5 million Globally.  This is direct known death cases.  Probably significantly more deaths then these recorded numbers.  I say 3x more until herd immunity is reached.   So, just take it seriously for protect the vulnerable population.

Long-term effects - https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351


Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2020, 01:59:06 PM »
Sorry, COVID survival rate is much higher than 99%.  Millions of people have had it and are asymptomatic and will never be tested.   Millions others had very mild symptoms and never got tested. 

Also, tens of thousands have died from strokes, heart attacks, and cancers in the last 8 months who had a COVID test when they entered the hospital.  If they tested positive for COVID they are labeled as a COVID death even if they never had symptoms.

I have a friend whose father passed from a stroke and got a COVID test as soon as he was admitted to the hospital.  They marked his death as COVID.  I have a colleague whose son was in an auto accident with a girl who was fatally injured.  She received a COVID test as soon as she got to the hospital.  She tested positive and succumbed to her injuries a couple days later.  Most likely this was marked as COVID death but I don’t know the family in this case.

I guarantee there are thousands of examples like this, combined with positive cases who haven’t been tested.

COVID survival rate is probably neck and neck with skydiving or better.

Sorry...this is ridiculous.  There are at least 300K extra death this year as compared to historical norms....250K of those are being attributed to COVID.   If anything, most experts think that we are undercounting COVID-related deaths because many people could have died without being tested.

You anenctodal evidence is not reflective of the norm:

Quote
When a person dies, the cause and manner of death of death are determined separately from any comorbidities that may have been present. A person who takes his own life, for instance, has suicide listed for a cause of death, with any comorbidities he may have had documented separately.

Quote
“These data come from death certificates, and the death certificate is designed to only capture information on causes of death,” Anderson said, explaining that COVID-19 would then not be "an incidental or trivial factor."

"The underlying cause of death is the condition that began the chain of events that ultimately led to the person’s death," Jeff Lancashire, acting associate director for communications at the National Center for Health Statistics, told PolitiFact.

"In 92% of all deaths that mention COVID-19, COVID-19 is listed as the underlying cause of death," Lancashire said.

“It’s kind of ridiculous, because if they took the time to just read, they’d understand a little better what’s going on here,” Anderson also said.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/09/01/fact-check-cdcs-data-covid-19-deaths-used-misleading-claims/5681686002/

Have you actually examined the death certificate yourself and note what was listed as the cause of death versus commorbidity? 



Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2020, 02:08:27 PM »
Yeah, I think I'm more like aquabliss and StarmanMBA on this matter. It's funny how the opinions are divided by political preferences though. Most Democrats will see Covid in one way and Republicans the other. I try to see things as unbiased as possible, but you might not see me that way.

A question for nosuchreality. If the percentage of fatality rate of vehicle crashes increases, do you think we should be banned to drive altogether?

We do ban something like drunk driving because we have decided that it is beneficial to the society.

We added a lot of laws, safety procedures, safety standards, and safety equipment in cars in the last 50 years because car deaths. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2020, 02:17:24 PM »
I'm neither Republican or Democrat... I see it logically.

I understand that anti-Covid feel it's not as serious as Coviders but this is still a deadly virus that has unknown long term effects.

Does anyone here want to get cancer or diabetes?

You see it logically that fits in your logic which might not be logical for others. But I don't think you try to fit nonlogical into logical or anything mostly so I get what you mean.

People also talk about the long term effects. How do we know? We've only had this virus less than a year now. Who decides it will side effect people long term? Sure, there has been other coronaviruses before, but isn't this one special unique disease that everyone needed to be put into a long pandemic? I'm trying to see logically here.

Logic is logic, just like math is math.

You don't get it because you are being illogical.

That is my point.
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Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2020, 02:35:46 PM »

First, you cite only vehicle accidents for the United States.  Africa, to name but one example, has fatality rates orders of magnitude higher.


I literally have no idea what this has to do with anything?  The reason why US vehicle accident death are much lower than Africa is because we have implemented a lot of more regulations and safety requirements to make car travel a lot safe. 

Conversely, Africa has done relatively well with COVID while US has done poorly.

Quote
Secondly, you are quoting the fatality rates which are overwhelmingly people in their seventies, eighties and nineties, who according to the CDC had, on average, 2.6 ADDITIONAL predisposing medical conditions contributing to their deaths.

Of the deceased who had ONLY Covid-19, the number is around 10,000 in the United States.

Cause people in their 70s don't matter...them dying is totally okay and cause there are no long term effect for those with COVID.

Quote


Fear to your heart's content. It is a very powerful driving force, particularly among the anti-science Left.  "FEAR climate change."  "FEAR Trump."
FEAR Covid-19."  "Stranger danger."

Oh please.  Common sense and judgment trump your fears.


I rather rely on science, data, and experts.  Your emotions and feelings lie...just as "common sense" do.  There are entire industries that exist to manipulate your emotions and "common sense".

I would love to see the "science" that are being denied by the "left"

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2020, 02:36:32 PM »
It’s a combination of logic and value system.  We all make decisions or have opinions based on our sensibilities. I find religion to be extremely illogical. I think a lot of folks here are pretty smart and religious. One could easily argue how ridiculous religion is and it wouldn’t change a believers mind.

Beliefs around covid are no different. I consider myself to be pretty practical. I take the view that people die every day and the covid deaths are just one more type of death that can be prevented. A lot of deaths that happen every day can be prevented/mitigated by taking drastic measures similar to the drastic measures we have taken fir covid but we have never chosen to prevent those deaths before. We can ban alcohol and prefer alcoholism and the related abuse that comes with and that would get rid of the drunk driving deaths. You could ban guns as well, etc. but it seems too many people like to drink and have their guns so the majority generally wins.  For
Covid it seems like we don’t quite have a majority so a good part of the population is split. I definitely understand the arguments on both sides.

No one really answered my question before but  I already know the answer. Will the people that are strong proponents of masks for covid continue to push mask wearing to prevent old people from catching the flu so they don’t die. Will you do permanent remote learning to prevent the old folks living at home from getting the flu and potentially dying? A lot of people use the  vulnerable population as a big reason to do the shutdowns and remote learning - to prevent the spread from getting the vulnerable population from getting covid. I’m guessing the answer is no. Society does the cost benefit on the acceptable level of deaths. For some reason we have tweaked the cost benefit for covid. Not sure what the magic number of deaths is that causes people to care more about covid.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #13 on: November 23, 2020, 02:43:35 PM »
It’s a combination of logic and value system.  We all make decisions or have opinions based on our sensibilities. I find religion to be extremely illogical. I think a lot of folks here are pretty smart and religious. One could easily argue how ridiculous religion is and it wouldn’t change a believers mind.

Beliefs around covid are no different. I consider myself to be pretty practical. I take the view that people die every day and the covid deaths are just one more type of death that can be prevented. A lot of deaths that happen every day can be prevented/mitigated by taking drastic measures similar to the drastic measures we have taken fir covid but we have never chosen to prevent those deaths before. We can ban alcohol and prefer alcoholism and the related abuse that comes with and that would get rid of the drunk driving deaths. You could ban guns as well, etc. but it seems too many people like to drink and have their guns so the majority generally wins.  For
Covid it seems like we don’t quite have a majority so a good part of the population is split. I definitely understand the arguments on both sides.

No one really answered my question before but  I already know the answer. Will the people that are strong proponents of masks for covid continue to push mask wearing to prevent old people from catching the flu so they don’t die. Will you do permanent remote learning to prevent the old folks living at home from getting the flu and potentially dying? A lot of people use the  vulnerable population as a big reason to do the shutdowns and remote learning - to prevent the spread from getting the vulnerable population from getting covid. I’m guessing the answer is no. Society does the cost benefit on the acceptable level of deaths. For some reason we have tweaked the cost benefit for covid. Not sure what the magic number of deaths is that causes people to care more about covid.

1)  Religion by definition is "illogical"...it requires faith with means belief without factual basis.  For example, being a Christian means that you believe an unknown deity made himself a human being and sacrificed himself for to bring everlasting life for the entirety of humanity.  There is no "logic" there...you either believe it or not.  It is highly personal and impossible to prove.

2)  Weird that you generalize what is being restricted versus what is happening.  People are being asked to wear masks and socially distant but have in large part refused to do it.  After 9/11, the country's entire security apparatus was changed because 3K people died.  We are at 250K dead in 6 months but hey...it's too drastic.

3)  Is Covid the flu?  Because if it is not...your breakdown and analysis make no sense.

4)  This is about "risk aversion"...you see relatively little risk.  Fine...but again...social policies and public health protocols should not be based upon personal risk assessments but rather data, science, and experts. 

Again...had we done the right things (i.e. Taiwan/NZ/Australia) in the first place, we wouldn't have to do this.  It is because we continuously don't do what is needed that we have to start over again. 

Offline Mety

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #14 on: November 23, 2020, 02:53:48 PM »
I'm neither Republican or Democrat... I see it logically.

I understand that anti-Covid feel it's not as serious as Coviders but this is still a deadly virus that has unknown long term effects.

Does anyone here want to get cancer or diabetes?

You see it logically that fits in your logic which might not be logical for others. But I don't think you try to fit nonlogical into logical or anything mostly so I get what you mean.

People also talk about the long term effects. How do we know? We've only had this virus less than a year now. Who decides it will side effect people long term? Sure, there has been other coronaviruses before, but isn't this one special unique disease that everyone needed to be put into a long pandemic? I'm trying to see logically here.

On the one hand...we have a ton of data and scientists/medical experts/public health officials saying that the virus is really really bad, has killed lots and lots of people, and will kill lots more people if we don't do certain things.  ERs, hospitals, and medical staffs are being overwhelming and asking the public to help them. 

We have studies that show people having long-term effects as a result of COVID with more studies needed as to whether those effects are permanent.

On the other hand, we have people who say "hey we are sure that lots of people have had it and thus the disease isn't that bad" and politicians/pundits screaming about how putting on a mask is what George Washington fought against. 

Which side is logical and which side is not?

But no one was asking which side was more logical.

You have put it nicely that favors your position, but still have not proven about the long term effects of Covid in health. You only demonstrated what you believe with sources you might have on your own from articles, etc.

 

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