Author Topic: 99% Survival rate  (Read 8423 times)

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Offline Mety

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #15 on: November 23, 2020, 02:54:46 PM »
Yeah, I think I'm more like aquabliss and StarmanMBA on this matter. It's funny how the opinions are divided by political preferences though. Most Democrats will see Covid in one way and Republicans the other. I try to see things as unbiased as possible, but you might not see me that way.

A question for nosuchreality. If the percentage of fatality rate of vehicle crashes increases, do you think we should be banned to drive altogether?

We do ban something like drunk driving because we have decided that it is beneficial to the society.

We added a lot of laws, safety procedures, safety standards, and safety equipment in cars in the last 50 years because car deaths. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

Yeah, but why ban driving altogether first? Then we can figure out the detail, right?

Offline Mety

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #16 on: November 23, 2020, 02:57:08 PM »
I'm neither Republican or Democrat... I see it logically.

I understand that anti-Covid feel it's not as serious as Coviders but this is still a deadly virus that has unknown long term effects.

Does anyone here want to get cancer or diabetes?

You see it logically that fits in your logic which might not be logical for others. But I don't think you try to fit nonlogical into logical or anything mostly so I get what you mean.

People also talk about the long term effects. How do we know? We've only had this virus less than a year now. Who decides it will side effect people long term? Sure, there has been other coronaviruses before, but isn't this one special unique disease that everyone needed to be put into a long pandemic? I'm trying to see logically here.

Logic is logic, just like math is math.

You don't get it because you are being illogical.

That is my point.

Illogical. That was the word I was looking for, but couldn't remember!

Anyways, I think you are in your own bubble. But that's ok. Most people are.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #17 on: November 23, 2020, 02:57:45 PM »

But no one was asking which side was more logical.

You have put it nicely that favors your position, but still have not proven about the long term effects of Covid in health. You only demonstrated what you believe with sources you might have on your own from articles, etc.

Logic is logic...logic may not fit your personal feeling or sense but that does not negate objective logic.  You can continue to argue that 1+1 is not 2 but that doesn't change the logic or math of it.

You seem to be confusing logic with personal preference and subjective "common sense".

How exactly would you like to it to be proven?  Conversely, what is your evidence that there are no material long-term effects?
« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 03:10:57 PM by Irvinecommuter »

Offline Mety

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #18 on: November 23, 2020, 02:58:30 PM »

First, you cite only vehicle accidents for the United States.  Africa, to name but one example, has fatality rates orders of magnitude higher.


I literally have no idea what this has to do with anything?  The reason why US vehicle accident death are much lower than Africa is because we have implemented a lot of more regulations and safety requirements to make car travel a lot safe. 

Conversely, Africa has done relatively well with COVID while US has done poorly.

Quote
Secondly, you are quoting the fatality rates which are overwhelmingly people in their seventies, eighties and nineties, who according to the CDC had, on average, 2.6 ADDITIONAL predisposing medical conditions contributing to their deaths.

Of the deceased who had ONLY Covid-19, the number is around 10,000 in the United States.

Cause people in their 70s don't matter...them dying is totally okay and cause there are no long term effect for those with COVID.

Quote


Fear to your heart's content. It is a very powerful driving force, particularly among the anti-science Left.  "FEAR climate change."  "FEAR Trump."
FEAR Covid-19."  "Stranger danger."

Oh please.  Common sense and judgment trump your fears.


I rather rely on science, data, and experts.  Your emotions and feelings lie...just as "common sense" do.  There are entire industries that exist to manipulate your emotions and "common sense".

I would love to see the "science" that are being denied by the "left"

But 1% and 99% are the scientific numbers, not emotions and feelings.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #19 on: November 23, 2020, 02:59:56 PM »
Yeah, I think I'm more like aquabliss and StarmanMBA on this matter. It's funny how the opinions are divided by political preferences though. Most Democrats will see Covid in one way and Republicans the other. I try to see things as unbiased as possible, but you might not see me that way.

A question for nosuchreality. If the percentage of fatality rate of vehicle crashes increases, do you think we should be banned to drive altogether?

We do ban something like drunk driving because we have decided that it is beneficial to the society.

We added a lot of laws, safety procedures, safety standards, and safety equipment in cars in the last 50 years because car deaths. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

Yeah, but why ban driving altogether first? Then we can figure out the detail, right?

Unless driving is airborne and highly infectious...your analogy is super poor.  And if 250K people died from car accidents in 6 months..you better believe there would be some pretty drastic things done.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #20 on: November 23, 2020, 03:00:21 PM »

Illogical. That was the word I was looking for, but couldn't remember!

Anyways, I think you are in your own bubble. But that's ok. Most people are.

What bubble are you speaking of?
« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 03:06:58 PM by Irvinecommuter »

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #21 on: November 23, 2020, 03:03:03 PM »

But 1% and 99% are the scientific numbers, not emotions and feelings.

Yes...1% of 330 million people is 3.3 million. 

More data and facts:  250K dead, 11 million cases.

Arizona, Missouri, Washington, Minnesota, SD, ND, and a whole host of other states are at or near full capacity for ICU beds.

Quote
The impact varies state by state with certain areas showing much more rapid increases in hospitalizations. As of Monday, hospitalizations are rising in 47 states, according to data collected by The COVID Tracking Project, and 22 states are seeing their highest numbers of COVID-19 hospitalizations since the pandemic began.

Quote
An increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations statewide is also associated with higher mortality, according to a recent study that analyzed the relationship between COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths.

"It's an indicator that you're going to have more deaths from COVID as you see the numbers inch up in the hospital," says Pinar Karaca-Mandic, professor and academic director of the Medical Industry Leadership Institute at the University of Minnesota.

Specifically, Karaca-Mandic's research found that a 1% increase of COVID-19 patients in a state's ICU beds will lead to about 2.8 additional deaths in the next seven days.

She says a statewide level of 20% COVID-19 hospitalizations may not look all that alarming, but that number doesn't capture the constraints on the health care system in adding more ICU beds.

Edit:  https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/10/933253317/covid-19-hospitalizations-are-surging-where-are-hospitals-reaching-capacity

You may not think there are emotions and feelings there...but there are plenty.

Offline Mety

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #22 on: November 23, 2020, 03:11:10 PM »
1)  Religion by definition is "illogical"...it requires faith with means belief without factual basis.  For example, being a Christian means that you believe an unknown deity made himself a human being and sacrificed himself for to bring everlasting life for the entirety of humanity.  There is no "logic" there...you either believe it or not.  It is highly personal and impossible to prove.

Sorry, but that is not Christianity. As much as you try to defend false information, I try to sort out things that can mislead people in Christian faith.

In Christian faith, you believe God because He made Himself known to you. He is not an unknown deity. He made heavens and earth, everything you see around. He made Himself known that way before anything. Then once you realize you're not worthy to be with such a powerful holy deity, God reveals His Son Jesus for the only way you can be with God the Father ultimately. To know more about Jesus is by hearing the gospel, by hearing The Holy Bible. As you know more and more, of course with doubts time to time, everything becomes very logical He created things the way He did. It is a very logical faith once you actually know. And you can prove by how the one faithful man/woman loves.

Offline Mety

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #23 on: November 23, 2020, 03:11:44 PM »

Illogical. That was the word I was looking for, but couldn't remember!

Anyways, I think you are in your own bubble. But that's ok. Most people are.

What bubble are you speaking of?

I was talking to IHO.

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #24 on: November 23, 2020, 03:12:44 PM »
1)  Religion by definition is "illogical"...it requires faith with means belief without factual basis.  For example, being a Christian means that you believe an unknown deity made himself a human being and sacrificed himself for to bring everlasting life for the entirety of humanity.  There is no "logic" there...you either believe it or not.  It is highly personal and impossible to prove.

Sorry, but that is not Christianity. As much as you try to defend false information, I try to sort out things that can mislead people in Christian faith.

In Christian faith, you believe God because He made Himself known to you. He is not an unknown deity. He made heavens and earth, everything you see around. He made Himself known that way before anything. Then once you realize you're not worthy to be with such a powerful holy deity, God reveals His Son Jesus for the only way you can be with God the Father ultimately. To know more about Jesus is by hearing the gospel, by hearing The Holy Bible. As you know more and more, of course with doubts time to time, everything becomes very logical He created things the way He did. It is a very logical faith once you actually know. And you can prove by how the one faithful man/woman loves.

That's seems like a highly subjective and personal experience that cannot be proven scientifically or with logic.  As certain as you are about God and Jesus as Christian, you will find others who express equal certainty about being a Muslim, a Buddhist, a Jew, a Hindu, or an agnostic.

It's not logical at all...it may make sense to you but it is literally the opposite of logic.

By definition...Faith:

Quote
strong belief in God or in the doctrines of a religion, based on spiritual apprehension rather than proof.

I will give you another example...how do you know that God created the world?  How do you prove it to a nonbeliever?  Is it something you can demonstrate and prove?
« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 03:23:56 PM by Irvinecommuter »

Offline Mety

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #25 on: November 23, 2020, 03:22:25 PM »

But no one was asking which side was more logical.

You have put it nicely that favors your position, but still have not proven about the long term effects of Covid in health. You only demonstrated what you believe with sources you might have on your own from articles, etc.

Logic is logic...logic may not fit your personal feeling or sense but that does not negate objective logic.  You can continue to argue that 1+1 is not 2 but that doesn't change the logic or math of it.

You seem to be confusing logic with personal preference and subjective "common sense".

How exactly would you like to it to be proven?  Conversely, what is your evidence that there are no material long-term effects?

"Logic is logic like math is math" does sound correct, but the issue is that which logic are we talking about? You can say my logic is like math 1+1=2. Sure, but your logic might be illogical to others. You don't think so? You say that is a subjective common sense, but how do you know your logic is not a subjective common sense? You say 1% of the US population is huge. Yes, that is logical. But others might say 1% is a too small of a number. That is logical too. You don't think so? What makes your logic deserves to be the only logic where there is a counter logic which is also true? My point here is not to prove I'm more logical. My point here is what you say logical might actually be a preference subjective matter after all. Of course, you won't admit it.

I'm not in a position to prove or debunk the long term effects. You guys are the ones who say there are long term effects with Covid. YOU need to prove it. I'll say though, we're less than a year having this virus. How can we determine it'll have long term effects while we have only studied this virus less than a year? Am I being illogical?

Offline qwerty

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #26 on: November 23, 2020, 03:23:40 PM »
You guys shut down as soon as covid is compared to the flu. The flu is also a highly contagious and deadly disease. Yes, not as deadly as covid, I get it.

In 2018 there were 2.8M deaths in the US. If that was 4.5M per year due to covid does that mean we change our way of life? Why was the 2.8M acceptable and 4.5M is not? Where is the line and who decides? Everyone has a viewpoint

All policies/laws/rules are generally based on what the majority wants and to some extent on religious beliefs. Generally most reasonable people can come to an agreement on what that is and whether it’s beneficial to society. Covid is unique because of the negative economic impact the shutdowns have and governments seem to think that is the only way to get things under control.

So one side cares about the money and the other cares about the lives. No right or wrong answer.

If you really want to apply logic you do what’s best for the majority and that would be for the 99% survivors. It can easily be argued that it’s illogical to ruin everything for the 1%.



Offline Mety

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #27 on: November 23, 2020, 03:29:42 PM »
You guys shut down as soon as covid is compared to the flu. The flu is also a highly contagious and deadly disease. Yes, not as deadly as covid, I get it.

In 2018 there were 2.8M deaths in the US. If that was 4.5M per year due to covid does that mean we change our way of life? Why was the 2.8M acceptable and 4.5M is not? Where is the line and who decides? Everyone has a viewpoint

All policies/laws/rules are generally based on what the majority wants and to some extent on religious beliefs. Generally most reasonable people can come to an agreement on what that is and whether it’s beneficial to society. Covid is unique because of the negative economic impact the shutdowns have and governments seem to think that is the only way to get things under control.

So one side cares about the money and the other cares about the lives. No right or wrong answer.

If you really want to apply logic you do what’s best for the majority and that would be for the 99% survivors. It can easily be argued that it’s illogical to ruin everything for the 1%.

You see, IC and IHO? qwerty is following the logic he believes. What say you?

Offline Irvinecommuter

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #28 on: November 23, 2020, 03:32:01 PM »
You guys shut down as soon as covid is compared to the flu. The flu is also a highly contagious and deadly disease. Yes, not as deadly as covid, I get it.

In 2018 there were 2.8M deaths in the US. If that was 4.5M per year due to covid does that mean we change our way of life? Why was the 2.8M acceptable and 4.5M is not? Where is the line and who decides? Everyone has a viewpoint

All policies/laws/rules are generally based on what the majority wants and to some extent on religious beliefs. Generally most reasonable people can come to an agreement on what that is and whether it’s beneficial to society. Covid is unique because of the negative economic impact the shutdowns have and governments seem to think that is the only way to get things under control.

So one side cares about the money and the other cares about the lives. No right or wrong answer.

If you really want to apply logic you do what’s best for the majority and that would be for the 99% survivors. It can easily be argued that it’s illogical to ruin everything for the 1%.

1)  No..no one shut down because COVID is like the flu...we have flu season every year...zero shutdowns.  We had SARS and H1N1...again no shutdowns.   Rather than concluding that COVID is the same as the other diseases we have previously dealt with...shouldn't it make more sense to see COVID as unique and much more impactful?

2)  2.8 million is acceptable?  How much time, money, and energy do we spend a year on trying to reduce heart disease, cure cancer, and reduce death?  How many of the 2.8 million are acute death?   Dying is a nature way of life and most people can accept it...having people die suddenly and unexpected however is completely different

3)  You have not even discussed the impact on the healthcare/medical system...hospitals are being overwhelmed by COVID cases, which is affecting healthcare professionals and the medical care system.  That has significant short and long term issues.

4)  Yes...in a way it is a money v people analysis but if we were being economically logical about this, we would have done this right the first time and be on the path to recovery now...instead we acted like babies and children and are now paying the price for it.  Government is not shutting down cause it's hilarious or fun...it's a last resort measure.  Again...had we done things properly...there would be no need for a shutdown...Taiwan never shutdown.

5)  Again...you are talking about risk.  1% risk is not small...it is incredibly high...casinos are built on 1 to 2% difference in risk.

Offline eyephone

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Re: 99% Survival rate
« Reply #29 on: November 23, 2020, 03:32:39 PM »
As I previously stated you should consider more than covid deaths. You should also consider the covid survivors with serious health conditions due to covid.

 

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