Author Topic: Fed Coin - Random Thoughts  (Read 1006 times)

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Offline PSForever

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Fed Coin - Random Thoughts
« on: November 06, 2020, 01:06:03 PM »
I think the writing is on the wall for the rolling out of a digital currency, or a "Fed Coin" in the very near future.

There are obvious implications good and bad that comes with such a highly controllable medium.  The good is that it can allow for a more stable economy easily controlled by the fed/gov via expansion/contraction of money supply.  Also inherent in a digital coin is the ability to not only track but also specify the use of certain of the coins.  For example, coding a certain percentage of targeted coins as to be used only for fuel, travel, mortgage, etc.  This can be interpreted as a good or a bad consequence depending upon the viewpoint of the parties involved.

These are possibilities that I am sure everyone anticipating the advent of digital currency have mulled over.  I'd like to posit that this medium of exchange may also be used to potentially control the fallout and limit the damage from weather related food shortages.  Specifically, those related to the Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) cycle of which we have recently entered into (cycle 2020-2050'ish).  The vast cycles of the sun not only spans decades but through multiple generations, and after a warming trend, we have entered a cooling period through a marked decrease in solar activity.  This by no means is an extinction level event but simply denotes that certain area of the globe will be a degree or two lower and that the growing season will be shorter.  Farmers will have to accommodate this by changing the timing of planting/harvesting, may have to use various weather control techniques including large scale green houses, etc., to circumvent the natural effect of decreased solar activity.  With the decrease in crops, meat production will also be scaled back due to the decreased availability of feed for cattles/animals.  As an aside, it is interesting to note the increased interest and the amount of money going into companies producing meat substitutes made of insects and plants. https://www.producer.com/2020/05/powerful-investors-get-behind-alternative-meat-sector/

So with the arrival of the Grand Minimum, and the related weather activity and its effects on farming and food production, I wonder if they would be able to designate/code a percentage of coins as only for use for food stuff but place a limit on those coins in our digital wallets.  Sorta like a forced ration if you will.  Of course inflation of food prices will always be a natural preventative for over buying, but we live in a world of equity first now.  I see a future where a group of lower wage earners unable to feed their family properly under food inflation/shortages fueling yet another protest.  Why wouldn't a government want to preempt such a revolt by placing a forced ration on everyone no matter what socio-economic status they are in.

By the way, for those of you who are not familiar with or who may think the Grand Minimum is the stuff of sci fi, please read the linked 2013 paper presented at the actuary institute summit on the effects of Grand Minimum (GSM) to our lives/businesses.  This was presented for actuaries so that they may better help their clients predict and weather the consequent effects of a GSM.  I think there's nothing more pragmatic than a viewpoint of an actuary...

https://www.actuaries.asn.au/library/events/sum/2013/sum2013paperbrentwalker.pdf
« Last Edit: November 14, 2020, 02:56:09 AM by PSForever »

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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Fed Coin - Random Thoughts
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2020, 01:43:04 PM »
I think the writing is on the wall for the rolling out of a digital currency, or a "Fed Coin" in the very near future.

There are obvious implications good and bad that comes with such a highly controllable medium.  The good is that it can allow for a more stable economy easily controlled by the fed/gov via expansion/contraction of money supply.  Also inherent in a digital coin is the ability to not only track but also specify the use of certain of the coins.  For example, coding a certain percentage or targeted coins as to be used only for fuel, travel, mortgage, etc.  This can be interpreted as a good or a bad consequence depending upon the viewpoint of the parties involved.

These are possibilities that I am sure everyone anticipating the advent of digital currency have mulled over.  I'd like to posit that this medium of exchange may also be used to potentially control the fallout and limit the damage from weather related food shortages.  Specifically, those related to the Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) cycle of which we have recently entered into (cycle 2020-2050'ish).  The vast cycles of the sun not only spans decades but through multiple generations, and after a warming trend, we have entered a cooling period through a marked decrease in solar activity.  This by no means is an extinction level event but simply denotes that certain area of the globe will be a degree or two lower and that the growing season will be shorter.  Farmers will have to accommodate this by changing the timing of planting/harvesting, may have to use various weather control techniques including large scale green houses, etc., to circumvent the natural effect of decreased solar activity.  With the decrease in crops, meat production will also be scaled back due to the decreased availability of feed for cattles/animals.  As an aside, it is interesting to note the increased interest and the amount of money going into companies producing meat substitute made of insects and plants. https://www.producer.com/2020/05/powerful-investors-get-behind-alternative-meat-sector/

So with the arrival of the Grand Minimum, and the related weather activity and its effects on farming and food production, I wonder if they would be able to designate/code a percentage of coins as only for use for food stuff but place a limit on our digital wallets.  Sorta like a forced ration if you will.  Of course food inflation will always be a natural preventative for over buying, but we live in a world of equity first now.  I see a future where a group of lower wage earners unable to feed their family properly under food inflation/shortages fueling yet another protest.  Why wouldn't a government want to preempt such a revolt by placing a forced ration on everyone no matter what socio-economic status they are in.

By the way, for those of you who are not familiar with or who may think the Grand Minimum is the stuff of sci fi, please read the linked 2013 paper presented at the actuary institute summit on the effects of Grand Minimum (GSM) to our lives/businesses.  This was presented for actuaries so that they may better help their clients predict and weather the consequent effects of a GSM.  I think there's nothing more pragmatic than a viewpoint of an actuary...

https://www.actuaries.asn.au/library/events/sum/2013/sum2013paperbrentwalker.pdf


For sure, this is coming.

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Offline icey

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Re: Fed Coin - Random Thoughts
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2020, 06:49:49 PM »
The writing is on the wall for sure. I could type on this subject for hours, but crypto has gotten a bad rap over the past decade as being known for just a get rich quick scheme or a medium for illegal transactions.

Every government, major financial institution, and tech firm is rolling out blockchain technology, it's just that we don't know what the ultimate end product is going to be. This is a multi-decade transformation that has so much potential on so many levels, not just financial. It has potential political impacts as well.

The controversial balance that governments need to deal with is traceability. It can help reduce stuff like money laundering, but the privacy invasion can be way worse than anything Google or Facebook has done to stalk consumers' spending habits. This is utopia for a government like the CCP, where it's expected the government just tells you what to do, but not so hot in the EU or the USA.

Pop Quiz? What's the #1 medium used for drug dealers and sales of illegal goods? Bitcoin? Monero?







Nope, it's United States Dollars

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Offline momopi

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Re: Fed Coin - Random Thoughts
« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2020, 03:52:58 PM »
IMO the government digital currency and climate cycle are 2 issues.

As we often joke about chip in the right hand and barcode on the forehead (Revelations 13:16-18), like it or not e-commerce is displacing cash.  It's not even necessary for the government to completely retire cash currency.  Usage of cash will simply dwindle like gold and silver over time.

If the goal is to track or restrict spending habits, you only need to pull real time data from a market dominated by few large players (major banks, apple pay, etc).  Government backed digital currency will however provide better capital control and plug holes from cryptos like Bitcoin.

In the event of a climate cycle induced famine, unlike the past when people mostly lived and died in the same region where they were born, today we have robust global trade, long term food storage, crop diversity/hybridization, and technology like drip irrigation that can help offset famines that impact specific regions -- but not on global scale.  If the impact is wide spread, people will feed themselves first before selling any food to you.

Consider, if climate cycle turned an area into low desert like terrain, it may still be possible to switch to growing aubergine and cantaloupe with drip irrigation.  This is assuming the climate changes occur in phases over time, and the people are not stubbornly stupid like the Vikings of Greenland (change our way of life?  Would rather starve!).

However, if the changes are rapid and people did not have time to adopt, then we're looking at possibility of government imposed food distribution and starvation.  People will be lined up at local distribution centers for their allotments.  Those with money and connections might fare better through the black market (or escape to better locations).  People in desperate situations will turn Greenland Viking and throw "dead weights" over the cliff, mothers unable to feed their young babies may smother them to death in bed and call it an accident, you get the idea.

In ye olde days people used to say if a man goes hungry in the forest it's his fault.  During the depression era hunters would walk for miles and not find game.  The deer and squirrels that you see munching away today will learn very quickly that they're being hunted and hide as soon as they detect humans.  So don't think you'll be able to feed yourself with a hunting rifle either.  All near shore fish stocks will be quickly exhausted as well.

If you're lucky enough to have stashed away a good supply of long term storage food, it might help tide you over for a while, supplementing the government allotted rationing.  Those with wealth, power and connections will have better access to food through the black market, like Soylent Industries Executives living in the tower.  For those without connections and hope, perhaps there will be a Temple of the Many-Faced God with drink of hemlock, or Futurama style suicide booth avail.  But I have to think out of the entire globe, there has to be areas that are less impacted, and for those smart enough to vote with their feet, perhaps the solution is to secure residency rights early and emigrate.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2020, 11:06:49 AM by momopi »

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Offline PSForever

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Re: Fed Coin - Random Thoughts
« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2021, 04:34:14 PM »
Bank of England to Ministers: Digital cash could be programmed to ensure it is only spent on "essentials"

"Digital cash could be programmed to ensure it is only spent on essentials, or goods which an employer or Government deems to be sensible... The Bank of England has called on ministers to decide whether a central bank digital currency should be “programmable”, ultimately giving the issuer control over how it is spent by the recipient."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/21/bank-england-tells-ministers-intervene-digital-currency-programming/

« Last Edit: June 26, 2021, 04:52:39 PM by PSForever »

Offline daedalus

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Re: Fed Coin - Random Thoughts
« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2021, 08:06:55 PM »
Yes, there's no better way to instill confidence in a government's fiat currency than to enforce limits on how it's spent.     :o      ???

 

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