test said:
momopi said:
California real estate is a boom-bust cycle. I would wait for the bust.
It usually busts along with equities.
The stock market recovered faster than RE market in last round. The Dow had already recovered to 12,000 points in 2011 but RE market in many places was still near bottom until 2012. However this may change as private equity and hedge funds pour into the RE market.
In the last round I decided to sell mutual funds at a loss and use the money to buy real estate in 2009-2012. Investment properties only required 25% down back then, they were near bottom price and cash flow positive. It was a profitable decision. SFR's in LA County were selling at 50% off peak and in Riverside County as much as 66% off peak.
In the current market, the rent delinquency issue is over blown -- for now. The % of renters not current with rent payment has only increased slightly in fraction of a percent. But we don't really know what will happen in a year or two. It's possible that we may experience increased long-term unemployment and rent delinquency rate shoots up, making it more expensive and difficult for investors to obtain loans to buy investment properties.
In such scenario it will benefit all cash buyers with less competition. Note that all cash buyers do not necessarily mean individuals, but also billion dollar private equity and hedge funds. When Fannie Mae opened the flood gates to investment funds, some $36 billion dollars flooded into the housing market buying hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes. In one Atlanta zip code 90% of 7,500 homes sold between Jan 2011 and June 2012 went to these investment funds. By mid 2012 the RE market was on the rebound.
For the small individual RE investor, we may be squeezed between tougher requirements to obtain investment loan, and billion dollar investment funds as competition.