Poll

We are over 80k... where will we be by end of June?

less than 100k
2 (11.1%)
100k-125k
5 (27.8%)
125k-150k
5 (27.8%)
150k+
5 (27.8%)
200k+
1 (5.6%)

Total Members Voted: 18

Author Topic: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19  (Read 2957 times)

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Offline zubs

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2020, 11:31:49 AM »
Well obviously we have flattened the curve.  My brothers furlough from Kaiser ends 05.18.2020.  He applied for unemployment for the 3 weeks he was not working.  He was laid off because Kaiser hospitals all became covid 19 wards, and other medical procedures were put on STOP.  The Covid tidal wave did not come.

I told him the government didn't know how bad it could get, but now that we see it ain't so bad, we should open up.  We will see more cases when we open, but we have enough room at hospitals to deal with it.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 11:44:54 AM by zubs »

Offline woodburyowner

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2020, 11:50:03 AM »
Well obviously we have flattened the curve.  My brothers furlough from Kaiser ends 05.18.2020.  He applied for unemployment for the 3 weeks he was not working.  He was laid off because Kaiser hospitals all became covid 19 wards, and other medical procedures were put on STOP.  The Covid tidal wave did not come.

What was his position at Kaiser?  I believe no doctors were furloughed and just reassigned.

Offline Ready2Downsize

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2020, 11:51:56 AM »
Well obviously we have flattened the curve.  My brothers furlough from Kaiser ends 05.18.2020.  He applied for unemployment for the 3 weeks he was not working.  He was laid off because Kaiser hospitals all became covid 19 wards, and other medical procedures were put on STOP.  The Covid tidal wave did not come.

I told him the government didn't know how bad it could get, but now that we see it ain't so bad, we should open up.  We will see more cases when we open, but we have enough room at hospitals to deal with it.

Well that is good to know cuz hospitalizations in the OC are going up not down and so are ICU cases. Guess that's all lagging indicators and not likely to go up even more after we're all back to work.

Offline zubs

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2020, 12:08:39 PM »
Radiologist. 

Offline Innosint

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2020, 01:31:19 PM »
the death count doesn't seem to be slowing down much in USA.... considering it's 80k from march to May. I think it could reach 125k by end of June

Offline momopi

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2020, 04:42:26 PM »
It's unlikely that we will get accurate totals on number of people who died directly as result of COVID-19.  Like they said when COVID-19 hit, suddenly nobody died of <insert other causes>.  The deceased are being cremated or buried without autopsy in many places.

Debating over number of COVID-19 deaths at this point is not really useful.  Efforts should be directed to protecting yourself.  Many local Korean stores now selling imported face shields and masks.  H-mart in Lakewood checks your temperature on entry and provide disposable gloves to all customers.  Read international press on what other countries are using for treatment, such as favipiravir/Avigan, Camostat, etc.  Because of the enormous profit potential of COVID-19 drug treatment you can expect company A to sing praises on its products while company B's press agents point out all the warts.  If you want to be a prepper you can mail order Camostat Mesilate tablets from Japan (expect lengthy shipping time), but please do not self medicate and only take drugs under consultation with your physician.

Offline daedalus

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2020, 04:43:42 PM »
the death count doesn't seem to be slowing down much in USA.... considering it's 80k from march to May. I think it could reach 125k by end of June

It has always struck me as odd that at the global level, the chart has been nearly perfectly linear since we  got past the parabolic growth stage.  Almost as if there's a basic universal mortality rate (BUMR (TM)) to C19. 

With that in mind, I'm putting my June 30 call right at 200,000  EDIT:  Upping to 200,000.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 10:24:11 PM by daedalus »

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #22 on: May 14, 2020, 10:28:49 PM »
I'm going with 140,000.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #23 on: May 14, 2020, 10:57:43 PM »
It has always struck me as odd that at the global level, the chart has been nearly perfectly linear since we  got past the parabolic growth stage.  Almost as if there's a basic universal mortality rate (BUMR (TM)) to C19. 

I mean it started to go linear around April 1 which is a couple of weeks after most countries put in place social distancing orders, so it makes perfect sense to me.  The curve was flattened and exponential growth was prevented, aside from the few well known hot spots.

Offline eyephone

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #24 on: May 15, 2020, 12:11:41 AM »
I'm going with 140,000.

Wow, a lot more than 60k your original estimate.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #25 on: May 15, 2020, 12:16:56 AM »
I'm going with 140,000.

Wow, a lot more than 60k your original estimate.

I believe that was for end of April.
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Offline eyephone

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #26 on: May 15, 2020, 12:50:32 AM »
I'm going with 140,000.

Wow, a lot more than 60k your original estimate.

I believe that was for end of April.

Oh my bad 60k was kings original estimate

Offline daedalus

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #27 on: May 15, 2020, 02:06:29 AM »
I mean it started to go linear around April 1 which is a couple of weeks after most countries put in place social distancing orders, so it makes perfect sense to me.  The curve was flattened and exponential growth was prevented, aside from the few well known hot spots.

I'm not doubting the timing.  But why flat?  What's so magical about the various states of lockdown around the globe that they create an overall linear growth rate from the infinite number of shapes possible?  It could have been a slower parabolic, or slightly asymptotic.

Offline freedomcm

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #28 on: May 15, 2020, 06:29:53 AM »
So if you are 80 years old, and suffer hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and are obese, and then contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19-like difficulty breathing and expire, was your death due to COVID, or all those underlying conditions, or age?


"Dying with" and "dying of" Covid 19 are not the same thing. If you contract covid 19, have mild or no symptoms, and get run over by a steam roller, it would be misleading to stay you died of Covid 19.

If we eliminate serious comorbidities, I'm sure the number of deaths would be much lower.



Offline eyephone

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Re: Estimate of deaths by end of June from Covid-19
« Reply #29 on: May 15, 2020, 07:51:04 AM »
What if your young/middle age: Have the following condition(s): obese, diabetes, high blood pressure, asthma, any other health

The chances of that person that catches covid and might die goes up with those conditions mentioned above goes up.


So if you are 80 years old, and suffer hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and are obese, and then contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19-like difficulty breathing and expire, was your death due to COVID, or all those underlying conditions, or age?


"Dying with" and "dying of" Covid 19 are not the same thing. If you contract covid 19, have mild or no symptoms, and get run over by a steam roller, it would be misleading to stay you died of Covid 19.

If we eliminate serious comorbidities, I'm sure the number of deaths would be much lower.



 

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