When stay at home is lifted, how big is the business fall off from February?

If stay at home is lifted soon, how big is the business fall off from February

  • None.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Less than 10%

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 10% - 20%

    Votes: 4 18.2%
  • 21% - 30%

    Votes: 5 22.7%
  • 31% - 40%

    Votes: 4 18.2%
  • 40% - 50%

    Votes: 3 13.6%
  • Over 50%

    Votes: 6 27.3%

  • Total voters
    22

nosuchreality

Well-known member
With the push to reopen, how big will the fall off from February business levels be for visible businesses like restaurants, theaters, bars, etc.

Others businesses?  Dentists?  People are delaying their services now, eventually they need it, how many months before levels go back to normal for them?





 
At least 25% if not more. I'm trying to be optimistic but some thing are going to take months to recover, if they do.

Sports will eventually come back (esp with testing, vaccine, and treatments) but it will be gradual based on sport and fanless for a while.

Entertainment is going to be rough, not just theaters and plays but anything with large social gatherings like bars/clubs etc. I'm unsure how to make those safe enough to open earlier... sit 3 seats apart in all directions unless you are a family... dance 6 feet apart... always wear mask?

Medical and dental can be done with enough PPE but there was a segment on the Today show this morning on the Georgia re-openings and I just don't know how they are going to re-open gyms. One owner said how he will make people stay at every other station and constantly wipe down everything but that's going to be difficult.
 
This will not be a v shaped recover. We will not see people rushing back to restaurants, movie theaters, flying, etc... A lot of damage has already been done and consumer confidence will still be low. Both consumers and businesses will defer big purchases because of uncertainty in the economy.
 
iacrenter said:
This will not be a v shaped recover. We will not see people rushing back to restaurants, movie theaters, flying, etc... A lot of damage has already been done and consumer confidence will still be low. Both consumers and businesses will defer big purchases because of uncertainty in the economy.

I haven?t voted since I created the poll, I?ll add mine after several votes come in.

I?m generally curious what people think and what it implies going forward.

Before it got locked down, people crowded into and on the hiking trails in the Canyons. Will they return to crowd the Spectrum on a Friday night?

For the businesses, which is worse?  Being ?shutdown? or being open if what you project as the fall off?
 
One thing we know is people have a short memory.

And humans are social animals.

So I think you will see more people at outdoor venues with the "protection" of open air than people crowded inside spaces.

What is sad is many businesses that were struggling or just opened BC (Before Covid) will probably not re-open. What I did notice is some new food places that opened just prior, have not only remained opened and are actually staying open longer to capture more sales. Most places closed earlier during the stay-in, like at 7 or 8pm... while a few places stay open until 10 or even 11p because they know they are the only game in town (we know this because we have looked for a place to get food after 8pm).
 
aquabliss said:
I fear we've seen the end of Soup Plantation forever.  And my children are devastated.

Man... my love of buffets is well-documented... I didn't even think of that.

Curse you Covid!!!!!
 
irvinehomeowner said:
What is sad is many businesses that were struggling or just opened BC (Before Covid) will probably not re-open. What I did notice is some new food places that opened just prior, have not only remained opened and are actually staying open longer to capture more sales. Most places closed earlier during the stay-in, like at 7 or 8pm... while a few places stay open until 10 or even 11p because they know they are the only game in town (we know this because we have looked for a place to get food after 8pm).

I agree. This shock to the economy will weed out many businesses who were already barely hanging on pre-COVID. A lot of these "temporary" closures will be permanent and will have long term negative impacts.

Local governments will also start to hinder economic recovery. The pandemic has blown a massive whole in state and municipal budgets--lower income from decreased tax collection and increased costs from the pandemic response. Governments will be forced to cut services, decrease pay, and furlough workers. Not a great recipe for growth.
 
iacrenter said:
eyephone said:
Take an Econ course or retake it again.

What is your projection?

The beginning of depression. It is not a regular recession. You got severely damage EVERYTHING. A lot of highly irregularities to the Main Streets and Wall Streets taken take and still unfolding. The FED put a torniquet to temporarily stop the bleeding. The patient is short of bleed to death, but very far from getting up and limp along. The cycle deflation is next, with compound rising unemployed adding weekly.

Bleak outlook yes, but facing pain and find ways to deal with it is better than wishing for unreal outcome and fearful.
 
Each sector will be impacted differently.  For example Dentists was mentioned in earlier post.  While people may defer teeth cleaning, dentists don't make much from teeth cleaning, they make money from major procedures and cosmetic procedures.  If your tooth pain is killing you, you will go see a dentist.  Cosmetic procedures on the other hand will be deferred.

We know businesses like movie theaters and theme parks are hammered.  If you believe they will somehow recover, by all means go invest in their stocks and REIT's.  EPR crashed from $80 to $20 and their biggest tenant is AMC Theatres.  Will AMC survive?  No idea.
 
Well, I'll own up to my vote, in the visible businesses like the restaurants, social venues like Diamond Jamboree or the Spectrum, I suspect business will be off 50%. Unlike regular recessions, I do suspect the less popular businesses will have less fall off than the more popular destinations.  The Plantation though is doomed.

That's the primary segment I was looking at.

Retail I'm not too sure how big the drop is, Amazon pushed out non-essential deliveries and the grocery stores, Target, Walmart have complaints by workers of people boredom shopping. Plus retail has the semblance of 6 ft social distance.  Maybe not so much fall off as shift to online. Impact is directly related to brick and mortar presence and in face need. Mom & Pop's and boutiques may get hammered.

Home remodeling? Probably time to get a deal if you can handle a work crew being in your house.



The average Irvine office park business?  Again related to how much person contact they need/create and how distanced they are from that crater that will form under the restaurant/entertainment. 

Personal trainers, house cleaners, nail salons, equestrian centers, swim schools, kumon, not feeling very positive.

Anybody going to take advantage of the screaming deals that will be coming for Vegas?

That doom and gloom brings us back to the other question, which is more damaging to the business?  Being shutdown or being open with that crater under them forming?


JIMHO, we don't need a reopening plan as much as a 6-12 month life support plan for the economy.  Validating with reopening is needed but the first plans for support need to be put in place because shit will go south fast.





 
I think we will see chance of depression, lots of deflationary pressure, and we're headed towards Japan like future ?big deficits, bigger central bank balance sheet, stubbornly low inflation?if we don't go big on fiscal stimulus that stokes demand.

After a major crisis like this, people are full of fear.

Once it's over, they don't run out and start consuming. They start rebuilding their savings. And once they've rebuilt their savings, they save save save some more to prepare for the next unimaginably bad crisis.

In face of negative income shocks, one of the first and strongest response of households with high marginal propensity to consume is to postpone vehicle purchases.

And when people want to save instead of consume, it's very difficult to stoke inflation, even if you try. Production is going to recover a lot faster than
consumption.

On top of that, especially if the shelter in place lasts for a very long time, I think the economy will find some new efficiencies, and efficiency is deflationary.

I think a lot of employers will find that remote work actually works, and so they won't need as much office space.

Students may find that distance learning actually works for them.

In addition to lowering the need for physical space, this may also result in higher student-to-teacher ratios, which can put some downward pressure on the cost of education.

Healthcare providers have now been forced to jump into the deep end on telehealth, and that will provide a lot of long-term savings. There's a lot of deflationary pressures that can come out of this.
 
I believe in the resiliency and creativity of the people to solve these problems rather quickly.

When all this started and Costco and grocery stores started doing the every other cashier and social distancing lines, there was still the issue of being too close to the cashier... then a few days later, plexiglass guards went up all over the place and I was impressed by how fast the tooling and installation of these shield went.

DIY masks exploded and neighbors were helping neighbors with free home made masks (yes.. some were trying to cash in... but many were just giving masks away).

While I agree that work remote can work... it's not optimal for certain types of jobs. And while distance learning may work for some... and actually has been, I think the majority of the students prefer to be at a school with other students. That's the social aspect that we have all been missing for these past weeks.

As for spending, people will still spend. My spending actually went up on other goods because I figure we were saving so much on the entertainment/going out/etc that we started buying stuff on our want list rather than our need list. I just couldn't get the wife to buy in on a bigger TV... but I got some new kicks even though I can't play ball right now.

But I guess I'm talking from a different perspective, I agree there is a portion of the population that will do exactly what Ken says... but I am hopeful we can get back to some kind of normal just with more personal safety as a focus.

Not sure how to solve the buffet issue though... maybe have food be served by masked/gloved staff rather than everyone just getting it themselves?

 
Kenkoko said:
Healthcare providers have now been forced to jump into the deep end on telehealth, and that will provide a lot of long-term savings. There's a lot of deflationary pressures that can come out of this.
I'm with you on the rest of what you said, but telehealth is a joke.  I got a friendly email from my doc saying they can't wait to "consult" with me (charge my insurance) for a telehealth "visit", and all I would have to do is give them my weight, my height and go buy a blood pressure monitor to give them a sys/dia reading.  Voila!  Professional diagnostics as easy as a phone call!

Anything thing my doc can diagnose without seeing me in person I can diagnose myself with the internet.  High blood pressure?  You don't say!  Overweight?  No shit!  Glad we had this talk; I'll call you again next year!
 
daedalus said:
Kenkoko said:
Healthcare providers have now been forced to jump into the deep end on telehealth, and that will provide a lot of long-term savings. There's a lot of deflationary pressures that can come out of this.
I'm with you on the rest of what you said, but telehealth is a joke.  I got a friendly email from my doc saying they can't wait to "consult" with me (charge my insurance) for a telehealth "visit", and all I would have to do is give them my weight, my height and go buy a blood pressure monitor to give them a sys/dia reading.  Voila!  Professional diagnostics as easy as a phone call!

Anything thing my doc can diagnose without seeing me in person I can diagnose myself with the internet.  High blood pressure?  You don't say!  Overweight?  No shit!  Glad we had this talk; I'll call you again next year!

Yeah, many providers do not yet have the proper telehealth infrastructure in place but are being forced into it. This is the problem with a healthcare system that's driven by profits not actual patient care.

Our current healthcare system is a byzantine labyrinth to navigate through. This drives up your healthcare cost significantly.

The number of physicians in the United States grew 150 percent between 1975 and 2010, roughly in keeping with population growth, while the number of healthcare administrators increased 3,200 percent for the same time period. This  growing number of administrators is mainly driven by trying to catch up to technology and by ever-more-complex regulations.

These army of administrators does little to relieve the documentation burden on clinicians, while creating layers of high-salaried bureaucratic bloat in healthcare organizations.
 
daedalus said:
Kenkoko said:
Healthcare providers have now been forced to jump into the deep end on telehealth, and that will provide a lot of long-term savings. There's a lot of deflationary pressures that can come out of this.
I'm with you on the rest of what you said, but telehealth is a joke.  I got a friendly email from my doc saying they can't wait to "consult" with me (charge my insurance) for a telehealth "visit", and all I would have to do is give them my weight, my height and go buy a blood pressure monitor to give them a sys/dia reading.  Voila!  Professional diagnostics as easy as a phone call!

Anything thing my doc can diagnose without seeing me in person I can diagnose myself with the internet.  High blood pressure?  You don't say!  Overweight?  No shit!  Glad we had this talk; I'll call you again next year!

You'd be surprised. 90% of what doctors can diagnose is based on what you tell them. So a video chat/phone call is not a bad way to start. They can still order tests to confirm their diagnosis.
 
This thread is like the Coronavirus Recession so not sure where to post.

One thing I think will have a really hard time coming back is travel/vacation.

Will any of you feel safe flying on a plane, going to a location where you are not sure of their safety protocols, and being physically close to people from who knows where?
 
I saw an interview with Maybor Goodman of Las Vegas about opening Vegas back up.  Considering that the vast majority of jobs are at casinos, just because you open things up doesn't mean that tourists will come back to town to party, eat, or see shows. Yeah, open up haircut places, nail salons, restaurants even, etc but not casinos.
 
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