Poll

What is your estimate for COVID-19 deaths in USA as of 30-APRIL-2020?

5,000 or less
2 (7.7%)
10,000
3 (11.5%)
20,000
0 (0%)
40,000
10 (38.5%)
80,000 or more
11 (42.3%)

Total Members Voted: 26

Voting closed: April 05, 2020, 02:24:20 PM

Author Topic: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases  (Read 5047 times)

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Offline morekaos

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #30 on: March 30, 2020, 12:04:34 PM »
Totally agree. But I'm still asking the same question: what number of deaths changes your mind? 

I like Germany's idea: https://www.yahoo.com/news/germany-could-issue-hundreds-thousands-114500027.html

Like i said in another thread...if we don't zoom up to the tens of thousands soon then the number is the low thousands....maybe sooner than many suspect...

Each of us makes a cost/ benefit analysis each time we walk out the door in the morning, wether you know it or not.  Will I get hit by a car? will I slip in the bathtub? will I be poisoned by my lunch today? Soon, very soon, we will collectively make a decision as to how many fatalities are acceptable in order to get back to work...I think that number is sub 10-15000.... we will see where it lands.

Online eyephone

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #31 on: March 30, 2020, 12:12:09 PM »
To fight the virus battle.
A lot of top countries are using AI/infrared technology. I think US is doing a little bit. Also, they are checking temperatures. US is doing minimal.

We are losing. How can we go back to work, Jack?
Where are the masks and ventilators? I hear a lot of talk, but no action.
All companies need to be on board.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 12:17:45 PM by eyephone »

Online eyephone

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #32 on: March 30, 2020, 12:13:31 PM »
Wake up and smell the coffee or shall I say cooked bacon. Things need to change. People should be outraged about this!
 I thought Katrina was bad, but this is like so bad. Really really bad.

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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #33 on: March 30, 2020, 12:18:18 PM »
From the dawn of humanity to the present, there has been one foundational concept that underpins all human societies and activities:

LIFE IS PRECIOUS BUT IT IS NOT PRICELESS.

Let me guess you watch or read info wars.

Or listened and follows Medal of Freedom winner Rush Limbo and tells people to relax it’s just a flu. It will go away wealllyy soon. It’s all under control. Oh, that sounds like our President Trump.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #34 on: March 30, 2020, 12:21:20 PM »
Here is the wisdom of the chattering class...Neil Furgeson at the Imperial College started the panic ball rolling with a 500,000 dead prediction...soon they dropped it to a more reasonable 20,000 but now think maybe only 5700... exponential regression at its best.

Coronavirus death toll could be 'just' 5,700

Modelling by the epidemiologist Neil Ferguson - also from Imperial College - last week predicted that  coronavirus  could lead to more than half a million deaths in the UK if left unchecked, and 260,000 with social distancing measures.

The paper from Imperial College, London, says that 5,700 people will die in Britain if the disease follows the same pattern as China now lockdown measures are in place.

This follows the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance's grim assertion that 20,000 deaths in the UK would represent a "good outcome"

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-death-toll-could-just-21769975


I mentioned this in my Math thread.

Just to present both sides, I think Neil's first estimate was the extreme, if there weren't any lockdowns, his new ones are taking into account the measures the UK have implemented.

The paper actually listed three basic scenarios:  no actions taken, social distancing only, or complete lockdown.  I think that has created a lot of confusion because the media and politicians only quoted the worst case scenario when justifying their decisions to restrict activity.  Now that various amounts of lockdown are occurring in both countries, GB and US, he is being accused of modifying his predictions when all he is doing is saying we are track for X numbers of deaths based on the precautions we are taking now.  The paper had a range for GB of 5,600 deaths up to 550,000 based on multiple inputs. There are 80 different sub-scenarios modeled out.

EDIT: I originally said 20 sub-scenarios, but it's actually 80.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 12:27:46 PM by Liar Loan »

Offline morekaos

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #35 on: March 30, 2020, 12:42:55 PM »
But the only number that made the headlines was the 500,000 dead.

Online eyephone

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #36 on: March 30, 2020, 12:50:37 PM »
From the dawn of humanity to the present, there has been one foundational concept that underpins all human societies and activities:

LIFE IS PRECIOUS BUT IT IS NOT PRICELESS.

Let me guess you watch or read info wars.

Or listened and follows Medal of Freedom winner Rush Limbo and tells people to relax it’s just a flu. It will go away wealllyy soon. It’s all under control. Oh, that sounds like our President Trump.

Haha: they are moving the goal post
1. It was a hoax
2. It was just a cough
3. Don’t worry it is like a flu
4. Now look at the death numbers not high (yet)

Online eyephone

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #37 on: March 30, 2020, 12:51:17 PM »
To fight the virus battle.
A lot of top countries are using AI/infrared technology. I think US is doing a little bit. Also, they are checking temperatures. US is doing minimal.

We are losing. How can we go back to work, Jack?
Where are the masks and ventilators? I hear a lot of talk, but no action.
All companies need to be on board.

We are losing and we all know it.

Offline qwerty

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #38 on: March 30, 2020, 01:03:42 PM »
I must have missed it, but who said we were winning?

Offline morekaos

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #39 on: March 30, 2020, 01:04:25 PM »
Daily Death numbers yesterday fell nationally and in NY.  Lets hope that might continue.

Online eyephone

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #40 on: March 30, 2020, 01:06:22 PM »
I must have missed it, but who said we were winning?

I just said it. Because people think this is just a cough.
Also, some people like the term winning. But I use it better. A lot better.

Offline qwerty

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #41 on: March 30, 2020, 01:18:01 PM »
I must have missed it, but who said we were winning?

I just said it. Because people think this is just a cough.
Also, some people like the term winning. But I use it better. A lot better.

It’s not just a cough. It’s like a dog bite :-)

Offline Maserson

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #42 on: March 30, 2020, 01:21:32 PM »
Most everybody is going to get this virus. Some small percent are going to die from ARDS/myocarditis regardless of treatment.

We need to avoid unnecessary deaths like Italy's situation aka "Rock, Papers, Scissors" vent selection which means pacing the infection rate aka flattening the curve.

So some variant of a local shutdown/social distancing whatever you call it is necessary but I don't agree with a total shutdown of the entire country.

But this also means you need more supplies (PPEs, vents) and staff to run the vents. Mean duration of intubation for survivors is what, 14 days?  Eats up too many resources for this to be "business as usual."


Online eyephone

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #43 on: March 30, 2020, 01:23:17 PM »
I must have missed it, but who said we were winning?

I just said it. Because people think this is just a cough.
Also, some people like the term winning. But I use it better. A lot better.

It’s not just a cough. It’s like a dog bite :-)

More like a shark bite. Lol
Rofl (almost fell off my chair jk jk)
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 01:38:06 PM by eyephone »

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #44 on: March 30, 2020, 01:23:37 PM »
From the dawn of humanity to the present, there has been one foundational concept that underpins all human societies and activities:

LIFE IS PRECIOUS BUT IT IS NOT PRICELESS.

Let me guess you watch or read info wars.

Or listened and follows Medal of Freedom winner Rush Limbo and tells people to relax it’s just a flu. It will go away wealllyy soon. It’s all under control. Oh, that sounds like our President Trump.

Haha: they are moving the goal post
1. It was a hoax
2. It was just a cough
3. Don’t worry it is like a flu
4. Now look at the death numbers not high (yet)

Well, at 100,000 death “We are doing a great job” said who???, And if 600,000 projected and 500,000 recorded death, “We did a great job, it’s only 500,000 counts.” You get it? Whatever he touches, is great. Get it?

 

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