Poll

What is your estimate for COVID-19 deaths in USA as of 30-APRIL-2020?

5,000 or less
2 (7.7%)
10,000
3 (11.5%)
20,000
0 (0%)
40,000
10 (38.5%)
80,000 or more
11 (42.3%)

Total Members Voted: 26

Voting closed: April 05, 2020, 02:24:20 PM

Author Topic: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases  (Read 5050 times)

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Offline morekaos

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #15 on: March 30, 2020, 12:14:58 AM »
Here is the wisdom of the chattering class...Neil Furgeson at the Imperial College started the panic ball rolling with a 500,000 dead prediction...soon they dropped it to a more reasonable 20,000 but now think maybe only 5700... exponential regression at its best.

Coronavirus death toll could be 'just' 5,700

Modelling by the epidemiologist Neil Ferguson - also from Imperial College - last week predicted that  coronavirus  could lead to more than half a million deaths in the UK if left unchecked, and 260,000 with social distancing measures.

The paper from Imperial College, London, says that 5,700 people will die in Britain if the disease follows the same pattern as China now lockdown measures are in place.

This follows the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance's grim assertion that 20,000 deaths in the UK would represent a "good outcome"

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-death-toll-could-just-21769975

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Offline daedalus

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2020, 12:16:13 AM »
Everyone who says we are about to lose 200,000 people realizes that we have only lost 33,000 people on earth, right? So we will make that number 233,000 all by ourselves? Seems a bit much. Why haven’t other countries like Mexico, who has hardly done anything have staggering losses, you would think they would be way ahead of us.
I agree it does seem a bit much.  Likewise, the reality of where we are today seemed a bit much a month ago. 

2 days ago I was reading some comments by a licensed medical doctor, someone who is a "board certified infectious disease prevention expert".  He was adamant that the US would not lose even 1/10 the people that the flu kills in a season, which would cap losses at about 5500 people on the high side.  Despite the data and charts, he would not budge from that stance.  That was 2 days ago.  As of today we have lost over 2500 people.  It's not mathematically possible, without some form of immediate treatment, to limit deaths to 5500 in this country, simply based on the # of current infections.  My point is it's possible to be extremely smart and knowledgeable, and still get it wrong.  And I truly hope I'm the one who's wrong.

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Online nosuchreality

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #17 on: March 30, 2020, 07:46:23 AM »
Just drove in the car yesterday to get out  the house.  Saw the high school soccer field being used by some team or group for a practice session a dozen young adults in a tight group, most sitting on the bench shoulder to shoulder getting talked to by team captain.  Saw cars at a popular nature spot  lining both sides of the road for several hundred yards.

Everyday, the crowds line up at Costco. I hear they have people keeping their distance, I don't know I haven't gone.  On my once a week shopping run last week, I did hit Target. Going to avoid that for a few weeks. Crowded, people weren't good about maintaining distance and too many non-family groups of 20-somethings.

All this in neighborhoods where many of them live in multigenerational households.

Maybe I'm paranoid, but Cali's numbers are still coming.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2020, 08:41:26 AM »
Went for a bike ride yesterday, many in the streets. One street had blocked off and everyone was outside on their porches blaring music. Tons on the water. Went to Home Depot to do a crown mounding project, had trouble finding parking. Costco had no line but was packed, got some pizza. Now that the weather is hot, good luck keeping people in. California has 132 dead. I think we ll be ok. Yesterday’s daily death count actually fell.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2020, 08:55:02 AM »
Here is the wisdom of the chattering class...Neil Furgeson at the Imperial College started the panic ball rolling with a 500,000 dead prediction...soon they dropped it to a more reasonable 20,000 but now think maybe only 5700... exponential regression at its best.

Coronavirus death toll could be 'just' 5,700

Modelling by the epidemiologist Neil Ferguson - also from Imperial College - last week predicted that  coronavirus  could lead to more than half a million deaths in the UK if left unchecked, and 260,000 with social distancing measures.

The paper from Imperial College, London, says that 5,700 people will die in Britain if the disease follows the same pattern as China now lockdown measures are in place.

This follows the government's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance's grim assertion that 20,000 deaths in the UK would represent a "good outcome"

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-death-toll-could-just-21769975


I mentioned this in my Math thread.

Just to present both sides, I think Neil's first estimate was the extreme, if there weren't any lockdowns, his new ones are taking into account the measures the UK have implemented.
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Offline Maserson

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2020, 09:50:54 AM »
Going with 10k-20k range.  Call me an optimist.  Doesn't matter, if we get lower numbers than predicted, some people will claim "I told you it's just the flu!" and the others will say "It's because we shutdown!"

Would be helpful if we had a rapid reliable IgM/IgG test so that exposed people (asymptomatic or mild case) could get back to work while we quarantine the unexposed.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #21 on: March 30, 2020, 09:55:28 AM »
Wadda ya know?....

Nobel Prize-winning scientist claims coronavirus outbreaks in New York and Italy are finally SLOWING

Professor Michael Levitt said Italy and New York have 'turned a corner'
He said both had passed the period of fastest growth of their outbreaks
Numbers in the UK are too low to say what stage the country is at in its outbreak
Professor Levitt correctly predicted how China's epidemic would come to an end

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8167773/Nobel-Prize-winning-scientist-claims-coronavirus-outbreaks-New-York-Italy-finally-SLOWING.html

Offline morekaos

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #22 on: March 30, 2020, 10:20:41 AM »
Going with 10k-20k range.  Call me an optimist.  Doesn't matter, if we get lower numbers than predicted, some people will claim "I told you it's just the flu!" and the others will say "It's because we shutdown!"

Would be helpful if we had a rapid reliable IgM/IgG test so that exposed people (asymptomatic or mild case) could get back to work while we quarantine the unexposed.

I like Peter Hitchens analogy as to how the blame game will go down if the death rates don't skyrocket soon...

As things stand, the Johnson Government is like a doctor, confronted with a patient suffering from pneumonia. ‘This is serious,’ says the doctor. ‘I have never seen anything like this. Unless I act radically, you will die terribly.’

He then proposes to treat the pneumonia by amputating the patient’s left leg, saying this method has been used successfully in China. The trusting patient agrees. The patient eventually recovers from pneumonia, as he would have done anyway. The doctor proclaims that his treatment, though undoubtedly painful and radical, was a great success. But the patient now has only one leg, and a very large hospital bill which he cannot afford to pay.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

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Online qwerty

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2020, 10:29:33 AM »
Sounds about right.

Offline Maserson

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2020, 11:02:03 AM »
So what's the magic number that justifies a shutdown?  20k?  100k?  1 million dead?

I'm all for getting people back to work and restarting the economy but you know it comes with additional deaths. What number of deaths justifies that?

I see several people continuing to push for lifting of restrictions, for a good reason, but again, what number of deaths would make you change your mind?

Online qwerty

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #25 on: March 30, 2020, 11:18:39 AM »
So what's the magic number that justifies a shutdown?  20k?  100k?  1 million dead?

I'm all for getting people back to work and restarting the economy but you know it comes with additional deaths. What number of deaths justifies that?

I see several people continuing to push for lifting of restrictions, for a good reason, but again, what number of deaths would make you change your mind?

How many ruined lives, closed business and economic damage are acceptable to continue to shut down the country?
What’s worse an  economic depression that affect 300m plus people or say 500,000 deaths?

At some point people are going to start to use those guns they have been buying and it becomes the Wild West.

I think you can do this for 2-3 months but at some point people will not start to liem the alternative.

We don’t stop selling beer even though almost 40,000 people are killed every year by drunk drivers.

We don’t stop selling cars even though 2 million people per year are permanently injured in car accidents.

At some point we all mask up and glove olio and go back to work while they try to find a vaccine/treatment.

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Offline Happiness

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #26 on: March 30, 2020, 11:48:08 AM »
From the dawn of humanity to the present, there has been one foundational concept that underpins all human societies and activities:

LIFE IS PRECIOUS BUT IT IS NOT PRICELESS.

Offline Maserson

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #27 on: March 30, 2020, 11:52:39 AM »
Totally agree. But I'm still asking the same question: what number of deaths changes your mind? 

I like Germany's idea: https://www.yahoo.com/news/germany-could-issue-hundreds-thousands-114500027.html

Offline eyephone

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #28 on: March 30, 2020, 11:53:40 AM »
But there is not enough masks to go around. We are losing...
South Korea produces 10 million masks a day.


Offline eyephone

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #29 on: March 30, 2020, 11:55:05 AM »
From the dawn of humanity to the present, there has been one foundational concept that underpins all human societies and activities:

LIFE IS PRECIOUS BUT IT IS NOT PRICELESS.

Let me guess you watch or read info wars.

 

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