Poll

What is your estimate for COVID-19 deaths in USA as of 30-APRIL-2020?

5,000 or less
2 (7.7%)
10,000
3 (11.5%)
20,000
0 (0%)
40,000
10 (38.5%)
80,000 or more
11 (42.3%)

Total Members Voted: 26

Voting closed: April 05, 2020, 02:24:20 PM

Author Topic: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases  (Read 5208 times)

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Offline Cornflakes

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Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« on: March 29, 2020, 02:24:20 PM »
As of today, the COVID-19 death count is 2409 in USA.

Let's see as TI members class, how accurate or grossly mistaken are we at predicting the COVID-19 mortality.

Be safe and do everything you can to keep these numbers low, regardless of predictions.

Offline nosuchreality

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2020, 03:18:49 PM »
What is the average time lapse between sick and dead for those that die?  I’ve seen estimate that it’s 5 days of ICU on average, which I’d guess most deaths are 1-2 days and live is 5-10.  So  basically probably 4000 more from already diagnosed.

Can we shorten the timeline. I’m thinking 6000 dead by April 3rd next Friday. 

New York is running just under 8000 cases a day for the last 5 days.  So NY is probably looking at 2400-7200 additional dead coming.On top of the 965 they have already and likely 1000 more dead of 50,000 that tested positive in the last week.

So New York at 7565 dead by April 30?  1800 or so by Next Friday 4/3.

Of course the million dollar question, how many of our urban centers are NYC two weeks or a month ago?

So nation wide?  Blindly throwing a dart: 43,752.  Through the highly complex math of guessing our other states are New York 10-30 days ago, the big ones will be just like it and the smaller ones will too, just smaller.

That’s my pulled out of my backside numbers.  I will happy if wrongly overestimating.

Offline daedalus

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2020, 03:59:53 PM »
I will happy if wrongly overestimating.
As of now I'm the lone crackpot at over 80k (much more, I think), and I, too, will be happy to be overestimating.  But all my other crackpot predictions were too optimistic.  2 weeks ago today I estimated that today we would have about the same # of cases as China, which seemed ridiculous at the time.  Today we have 75% more cases than China.  I will run a model and report back with an actual #.  We must respect the math while acknowledging that the math doesn't factor in things like hitting critical mass and changes in behavior (e.g., shelter in place).
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 05:12:26 PM by daedalus »

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2020, 04:03:29 PM »
Of course the million dollar question, how many of our urban centers are NYC two weeks or a month ago?

Based on the state rankings of new deaths, it looks like Detroit, Chicago, and New Orleans are the up-and-coming hot spots.

Offline daedalus

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2020, 04:45:47 PM »
110,000

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2020, 05:57:05 PM »
This is sort of a sick game, but I voted for 40,000 assuming it means 40,000-79,999.  My estimate is 60,000 by April 30.

Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2020, 06:26:56 PM »
I'm in the 65-75k range worst case 25-30k Best case IMHO so my vote is on the upper end at 40k... hedging my bets.

Offline Cornflakes

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #7 on: March 29, 2020, 08:09:27 PM »
True WOC experiment would be to let everyone specific a specific number and get a large enough sample size (like 200+). Poll on TI thread has limitation and fewer responses.

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Offline Cornflakes

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2020, 08:18:13 PM »
Ok, so I am compiling data in a spreadsheet.

So far:

    
nosuchreality    43,752
Cornflakes    49,000
daedalus    110,000
Liar Loans    60,000
SGIP    47,500

I will ask my family and friends and log the numbers in the spreadsheet. Please post your specific number estimate here, and any other estimates you collect from your friends.

Will report periodically.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2020, 08:49:18 PM »
Is death from riots counts? Indirect from covid, but still death?

Offline Halos

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2020, 10:19:03 PM »
Is death from riots counts? Indirect from covid, but still death?

Good point...I'd say at least 30K suicides and 100K drinking themselves to death come end of summer. This overreaction by Newsom, and the adverse affects will be talked about for generations

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Offline aquabliss

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2020, 10:31:11 PM »

Offline daedalus

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2020, 10:52:18 PM »
Well that's going to inspire a lot of confidence in the govt's ability to see this through.

What's scary to me is there isn't enough data to give a very good prediction of the progression of deaths.  Some solutions, perfectly plausible with the data thus far, predict over a million deaths by the end of April.    Riots and suicides, indeed.

Offline Soylent Green Is People

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2020, 11:00:05 PM »
Shouldn't trampling deaths at Wal-Mart from hoarders rushing for paper goods be factored in somehow?

Offline morekaos

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Re: Wisdom of crowd experiment - COVID-19 death cases
« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2020, 11:43:18 PM »
Everyone who says we are about to lose 200,000 people realizes that we have only lost 33,000 people on earth, right? So we will make that number 233,000 all by ourselves? Seems a bit much. Why haven’t other countries like Mexico, who has hardly done anything have staggering losses, you would think they would be way ahead of us.

 

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