Coronavirus Recession

Airlines will get bailout, no stock buybacks, no layoffs and furloughs until September-ish, and then mass layoffs? 
At least oil is cheap now, can they hoard fuel?
 
I think we have to have either a cure or a curve leveling off (with end in sight) by the time the real financial armageddon hits the markets.  If these earnings start coming in at 30% of the previous quarter and we still don't have a light at the end of this tunnel, then look out, here comes the depression.
 
Is anyone here spending more money or even the same money because of this?  Regardless of whether your job is secure:

Can't go out to eat
Can't to go movies
Can't go to theme parks
Can't go on vacations
Can't go to the gym
Can't go to school or daycare
Can't host birthday parties or other social gatherings
Less need to buy a new car or other forms of transportation, and related costs (fuel, service)

Personally my family is saving over $2000/month just on monthly recurring expenses for our daughter (daycare, gym, dance, karate).  I don't think I've driven even 5 miles in the past week+.  We used to go to Costco weekly to stock up on groceries, which is essential, but I would also buy a lot of other stuff while there. 

The only thing I think we'll be spending more on is groceries, as we are looking to start home deliveries from Amazon, Costco and others.  But that's a small amount relative to what we'll be saving.

I imagine a lot of people are in the same boat, even with the same paycheck.  Then add in the millions who have been laid off or are at risk of losing their jobs.  How is consumption not going to drop by trillions per year?  Depression, indeed. 

Also, this looks to further drive income inequality.
 
I was just telling my wife about this the other day.

We are saving more per month

+2200 on school/after school care
+300 for gas
+300 for house cleaning - although I think I?m going to pay our cleaning ladies 50% for each missed visit to help them out.
+300 other kids activities

So that is about 3100/month we will save. Food is about the same. My wife is shopping less because she can?t go the south coast or the spectrum.

Both of our jobs should be safe but you never know in these times.
 
Everything mentioned here plus drycleaning costs. I have been in my PJs/workout attire for past 14 days. Wash Dry Repeat.

Other way to look at it, those are all the small businesses that must be suffering badly.
 
Cornflakes said:
Everything mentioned here plus drycleaning costs. I have been in my PJs/workout attire for past 14 days. Wash Dry Repeat.

Other way to look at it, those are all the small businesses that must be suffering badly.
;D  I didn't want to be the first to admit to staying in PJs all day.

I am trying to stick to a resolution to support my 2 favorite independent restaurants.  Other than a routine Chipotle splurge (now on hiatus), we eat out probably less than once a month on average.  But I told myself I need to step up and support my 2 fav places.  Went to 1 a couple weeks ago, and called the other 1 last night for dinner...no answer.  I will ride by there on my bike in a bit, but I fear the worst for them.  And they're such nice people.
 
daedalus said:
Is anyone here spending more money or even the same money because of this?  Regardless of whether your job is secure:

Can't go out to eat
Can't to go movies
Can't go to theme parks
Can't go on vacations
Can't go to the gym
Can't go to school or daycare
Can't host birthday parties or other social gatherings
Less need to buy a new car or other forms of transportation, and related costs (fuel, service)

Personally my family is saving over $2000/month just on monthly recurring expenses for our daughter (daycare, gym, dance, karate).  I don't think I've driven even 5 miles in the past week+.  We used to go to Costco weekly to stock up on groceries, which is essential, but I would also buy a lot of other stuff while there. 

The only thing I think we'll be spending more on is groceries, as we are looking to start home deliveries from Amazon, Costco and others.  But that's a small amount relative to what we'll be saving.

I imagine a lot of people are in the same boat, even with the same paycheck.  Then add in the millions who have been laid off or are at risk of losing their jobs.  How is consumption not going to drop by trillions per year?  Depression, indeed. 

Also, this looks to further drive income inequality.

Vacations is a big one.  Spring break trip was canceled.  Europe trip planned for June has been cancelled.
Another "savings" that's coming up is summer camps.

Slight uptick in groceries/food.  And I've had to spend some money on things to entertain the kids... video games, educational materials, etc.
 
qwerty said:
+300 for house cleaning - although I think I?m going to pay our cleaning ladies 50% for each missed visit to help them out.

We've canceled one so far (every other week service) and paid him in full.  Thinking about having him help me source/buy TP and cleaning supplies for his next (non) visit.
 
daedalus said:
Cornflakes said:
Everything mentioned here plus drycleaning costs. I have been in my PJs/workout attire for past 14 days. Wash Dry Repeat.

Other way to look at it, those are all the small businesses that must be suffering badly.
;D  I didn't want to be the first to admit to staying in PJs all day.

I am trying to stick to a resolution to support my 2 favorite independent restaurants.  Other than a routine Chipotle splurge (now on hiatus), we eat out probably less than once a month on average.  But I told myself I need to step up and support my 2 fav places.  Went to 1 a couple weeks ago, and called the other 1 last night for dinner...no answer.  I will ride by there on my bike in a bit, but I fear the worst for them.  And they're such nice people.

Let us know the spots, we?ll help support as well.  I like small businesses where the owners go out of their way to make you feel welcome. 

Since we?re on the topic, I highly encourage you guys to try Noonerz in Laguna Hills (open for lunch weekdays only).  The owners name is Wayne (super nice guy), makes hands down the best turkey sandwich you ever ate.  Order the number 1, get the potato salad as your side, and pick a cookie.  I think the combo is like $10.50ish, but best most flavorful sandwich ever.


 
The Greater Recession is now fully baked in and is consensus.

This will be worse than 08-09 recession.

Is it going to be 2 or 3 quarters, then recovery start at the beginning of 4th quarter of this year? That would be the best case scenario.
 
aquabliss said:
Let us know the spots, we?ll help support as well.  I like small businesses where the owners go out of their way to make you feel welcome. 

Since we?re on the topic, I highly encourage you guys to try Noonerz in Laguna Hills (open for lunch weekdays only).  The owners name is Wayne (super nice guy), makes hands down the best turkey sandwich you ever ate.  Order the number 1, get the potato salad as your side, and pick a cookie.  I think the combo is like $10.50ish, but best most flavorful sandwich ever.

I super appreciate it, but I'm not an Irvinite.  I live 50 miles north of you all.  ;)

Happy to say restaurant #2 folks were there when I rode by on my bike.  Picked up a menu, confirmed their hours, and then went home and made a take out order by phone.  Ordered more food than we could eat in 1 meal and tipped heavy at pickup.  It was sad seeing them so slow...it's a sushi place, so I imagine they're having a heck of a time figuring out how much raw fish to order every day to stay in stock while minimizing waste.  Yeah, handmade raw food in the time of a pandemic doesn't sound entirely wise but I will take my chances for the time being.  Maybe I'll switch to their cooked bentos and hot soup/noodle dishes next time. 
 
Compressed-Village said:
The Greater Recession is now fully baked in and is consensus.

This will be worse than 08-09 recession.

Is it going to be 2 or 3 quarters, then recovery start at the beginning of 4th quarter of this year? That would be the best case scenario.
If it's fully baked in, why didn't the market drop more?  I still think we will see a lower low.  Agree with your best case scenario for finding a cure or a vaccine, but they could find a treatment using existing drugs sooner.  Possible if not likely.

How much will GDP contract because of this?  Maybe not much, only because consumption will be replaced by govt spending.  But that certainly will not be a healthy tradeoff.
 
daedalus said:
Compressed-Village said:
The Greater Recession is now fully baked in and is consensus.

This will be worse than 08-09 recession.

Is it going to be 2 or 3 quarters, then recovery start at the beginning of 4th quarter of this year? That would be the best case scenario.
If it's fully baked in, why didn't the market drop more?  I still think we will see a lower low.  Agree with your best case scenario for finding a cure or a vaccine, but they could find a treatment using existing drugs sooner.  Possible if not likely.

How much will GDP contract because of this?  Maybe not much, only because consumption will be replaced by govt spending.  But that certainly will not be a healthy tradeoff.

Who think the drop is over???? I don?t.

Given the size of the economic shock, fiscal deficits in advanced economies will need to increase from 2-3% of GDP to around 10% or more. Only central governments have balance sheets large and strong enough to prevent the private sector?s collapse.
 
The world economy halted and equities market rises, ok great for the HAVES and sucked for people lost their jobs.

Currently, there is a 3+ millions people unemployed. Wowza.

By summer some estimate it will rise to as much as 15 - 20 millions. Holy shit, that?s rival the great depressions number.

Just 3 weeks ago we at an all time low unemployment as far back as 50 years. Many people had multiple jobs /gigs not so long ago, just to get by, now none can be found.

Some might be back once the lift reinstate, many many more are facing tough hardship ahead. That?s the tragedy for millions.
 
Didn't the FED recently say they'll dump infinite money into the economy to keep it afloat?
How will the stock market go down if there is so much cash being dropped?

What happens to our society when the fed balance sheet hits 7 trillion?
Today it is at 5.3 trillion.
Last year at this time it was around 3.5 trillion
Then went to 4.0 trillion at the end of 2019.


And even with the cash drop, a barrel of oil is in the gutter.


Gold should be above 1800 now...but it's not.
 
The Fed is actually acting as a market maker for many parts of the financial markets (treasuries, MBS, commercial paper, money market, investment grade, etc) so that's where most of the money is going. There has been a lot of leverage that has been taken out of the market (deflationary) so the Fed is basically filling in that post leverage.
 
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