Author Topic: Coronavirus Recession  (Read 20881 times)

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Offline daedalus

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2020, 01:38:04 PM »
The Greater Recession is now fully baked in and is consensus.

This will be worse than 08-09 recession.

Is it going to be 2 or 3 quarters, then recovery start at the beginning of 4th quarter of this year? That would be the best case scenario.
If it's fully baked in, why didn't the market drop more?  I still think we will see a lower low.  Agree with your best case scenario for finding a cure or a vaccine, but they could find a treatment using existing drugs sooner.  Possible if not likely.

How much will GDP contract because of this?  Maybe not much, only because consumption will be replaced by govt spending.  But that certainly will not be a healthy tradeoff.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2020, 02:21:15 PM »
The Greater Recession is now fully baked in and is consensus.

This will be worse than 08-09 recession.

Is it going to be 2 or 3 quarters, then recovery start at the beginning of 4th quarter of this year? That would be the best case scenario.
If it's fully baked in, why didn't the market drop more?  I still think we will see a lower low.  Agree with your best case scenario for finding a cure or a vaccine, but they could find a treatment using existing drugs sooner.  Possible if not likely.

How much will GDP contract because of this?  Maybe not much, only because consumption will be replaced by govt spending.  But that certainly will not be a healthy tradeoff.

Who think the drop is over???? I don’t.

Given the size of the economic shock, fiscal deficits in advanced economies will need to increase from 2-3% of GDP to around 10% or more. Only central governments have balance sheets large and strong enough to prevent the private sector’s collapse.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #17 on: March 30, 2020, 06:06:24 PM »
The world economy halted and equities market rises, ok great for the HAVES and sucked for people lost their jobs.

Currently, there is a 3+ millions people unemployed. Wowza.

By summer some estimate it will rise to as much as 15 - 20 millions. Holy shit, that’s rival the great depressions number.

Just 3 weeks ago we at an all time low unemployment as far back as 50 years. Many people had multiple jobs /gigs not so long ago, just to get by, now none can be found.

Some might be back once the lift reinstate, many many more are facing tough hardship ahead. That’s the tragedy for millions.

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Online zubs

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2020, 11:02:43 AM »
Didn't the FED recently say they'll dump infinite money into the economy to keep it afloat?
How will the stock market go down if there is so much cash being dropped?

What happens to our society when the fed balance sheet hits 7 trillion?
Today it is at 5.3 trillion.
Last year at this time it was around 3.5 trillion
Then went to 4.0 trillion at the end of 2019.


And even with the cash drop, a barrel of oil is in the gutter.


Gold should be above 1800 now...but it's not.

Offline USCTrojanCPA

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2020, 11:37:15 AM »
The Fed is actually acting as a market maker for many parts of the financial markets (treasuries, MBS, commercial paper, money market, investment grade, etc) so that's where most of the money is going. There has been a lot of leverage that has been taken out of the market (deflationary) so the Fed is basically filling in that post leverage.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2020, 12:28:37 PM »
Every cure has side-effects. One of the recent side effects from FED massive unconventional actions surfaced fairly quick is Mortgage Servicers and the Mortgage Financial Systems can collapse.

The others collateral damage occur over-time can create inflation and with sustain high unemployment will result in stagflation.

Congress is on the verge of rolling out another helicopter money drop (4th round) to combat the high and sustain unemployment that they have data’s to see that it will happen.

If this cycles keep looping that’s very bad.

Gold is still a hedge for inflation, but when you have rusher rushing for exit , nothing matters. Cash is what everyone feel safe and want to hold on to for the time being. We still don’t know if there maybe another extension for shelter in place. It’s the uncertainty is keeping people on edge.

Offline eyephone

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #21 on: April 08, 2020, 11:14:22 PM »
CNN Travel: Nearly 80% of hotel rooms in the US are empty, according to new data

The hotel industry has taken a massive hit as people continue to abide by stay-at-home orders during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

Only 21.6% of hotel rooms in the United States were occupied between March 29 and April 4, according to new data from hospitality analytics company STR. That is a 68% decrease when compared to the same week last year.

Those numbers could continue to drop, according to STR. The percentage from last week is slightly down from the week before.

Oahu Island, Hawaii is one of the most impacted by the lack of hotel guests. Only 7% of hotel rooms are occupied, the lowest rate for any market in the country. That figure is down more than 90% from the same week last year.

Marriott, for example, has furloughed thousands of workers because of the high rate of cancellations. The Intercontinental Hotels Group, which owns the Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza hotel brands, said that demand for rooms is the lowest it has ever seen.

The lack of occupancy impacts employees in the industry, too. An Oxford Economics study predicts that whopping 44% of hotel employees in every state will lose their jobs as a result of the pandemic.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/us/hotel-rooms-industry-coronavirus-trnd/index.html


Offline eyephone

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #22 on: April 09, 2020, 09:40:20 AM »
US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6 million and we've now lost 10% of workforce in three weeks

More than 16 million Americans have now lost their jobs in three weeks.
If you compare those claims to the 151 million people on payrolls in the last monthly employment report, that means the U.S. has lost 10% of the workforce in three weeks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/weekly-jobless-claims-report.html

Online zubs

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #23 on: April 09, 2020, 10:14:52 AM »
Has the strip opened yet?  I think once vegas starts gambling again, we can start seeing some real gains.
But they closed in mid MAR and said they would open again in 2 weeks.  Well here we are and it's still closed...

Offline OCLuvr

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #24 on: April 09, 2020, 10:26:37 AM »
Somehow, market is not seeing any of these problems.

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #25 on: April 09, 2020, 10:44:44 AM »
The econmy and the markets are two different beast. You have the econmy in the gutters and market irrationally rally because of another 2.3 trillions just added. If things were even on the borderline of being OK, the FED would never have to go to that extents of keeping pumping MASSIVE amount of liquidities. Its just like taking drugs, at a sooner point, the effective will wear off and the large dosage not effective anymore since the med. is not curing the ills. In this case money not getting to people at the right time or at the wrong place.


Offline eyephone

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #26 on: April 09, 2020, 12:10:49 PM »
Handful of GOP senators threaten to delay Senate coronavirus bill over unemployment payments

"Republicans right now are holding up COVID relief package because the unemployment insurance is TOO GENEROUS," Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, tweeted.

A handful of Republican senators threatened Wednesday to delay the $2 trillion coronavirus spending bill over a proposed increase in unemployment insurance.

In a statement, Sens. Tim Scott, R-S.C., Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Ben Sasse, R-Neb., said the bill could provide a "strong incentive for employees to be laid off instead of going to work" because some people could theoretically make more by being unemployed.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/handful-gop-senators-threaten-delay-senate-coronavirus-bill-over-drafting-n1168766

Unbelievable. The true colors show at the time of crisis. Screw the little guy?

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #27 on: April 09, 2020, 01:34:25 PM »
Every time you think it can't get worse ...

Art Laffer is being floated as head of a new task force to "reopen" the US economy.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #28 on: April 09, 2020, 04:49:21 PM »
I'm glad I didn't get into the vacation rental business.  There have been so many gurus promoting this as the next gold rush in real estate because the returns look so good on paper.  20% cash-on-cash returns are pretty easy to achieve in the right location.  Yet if there's one area of RE that gets hit hard during a recession, it's vacation rentals... And this recession is going to be the MOTHER of all recessions to hit that industry.

Offline eyephone

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #29 on: April 09, 2020, 05:11:56 PM »
More than half of renters say they lost jobs due to coronavirus: ‘They could face housing situations that spiral out of control’

The recent $2 trillion CARES Act, a federal stimulus package, “didn’t do enough to address increases in housing insecurity for the nearly 11 million low-income renter households paying more than half their income toward rent before the pandemic,” Cunningham added.

Eventually, the rent will be due and someone needs to pay it,” she wrote. “Low-income renters, especially those who lose employment during the crisis, will have a hard time paying back rent, and they could face housing situations that spiral out of control.

The National Multifamily Housing Council tracked data from 13.4 million apartment units and found that 31% of renters had not paid their rent in the first week of April, up from 19% for the same period in the previous month, according to a report released this week.

“The COVID-19 outbreak has resulted in significant health and financial challenges for apartment residents and multifamily owners, operators and employees in communities across the country,” said Doug Bibby, the president of the National Multifamily Housing Council.

Almost half (46%) of renters say they have less than $500 in emergency funds, while 22% of homeowners say they don’t have enough saved to cover their mortgage payment for a month, according to a separate poll of 1,000 renters and homeowners from Clever, an online service connecting house hunters with real-estate agents.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/they-could-face-housing-situations-that-spiral-out-of-control-more-than-half-of-renters-say-they-lost-their-jobs-due-to-covid-19-2020-04-09




 

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