Author Topic: Coronavirus Recession  (Read 47620 times)

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Offline eyephone

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Coronavirus Recession
« on: March 28, 2020, 11:35:09 AM »
Discussion related to the financial impact/downturn due to the coronavirus.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 12:11:48 PM by eyephone »

Offline aquabliss

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Re: Caronavirus Recession
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2020, 12:09:45 PM »
Man c'mon you gotta at least spell it right... :)

Offline eyephone

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2020, 12:12:19 PM »
Thanks for the heads up.. ;D

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Offline AW

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2020, 12:20:37 PM »
Airlines will get bailout, no stock buybacks, no layoffs and furloughs until September-ish, and then mass layoffs? 
At least oil is cheap now, can they hoard fuel?

Offline aquabliss

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2020, 12:49:00 PM »
I think we have to have either a cure or a curve leveling off (with end in sight) by the time the real financial armageddon hits the markets.  If these earnings start coming in at 30% of the previous quarter and we still don't have a light at the end of this tunnel, then look out, here comes the depression.

Offline daedalus

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2020, 03:24:04 PM »
Is anyone here spending more money or even the same money because of this?  Regardless of whether your job is secure:

Can't go out to eat
Can't to go movies
Can't go to theme parks
Can't go on vacations
Can't go to the gym
Can't go to school or daycare
Can't host birthday parties or other social gatherings
Less need to buy a new car or other forms of transportation, and related costs (fuel, service)

Personally my family is saving over $2000/month just on monthly recurring expenses for our daughter (daycare, gym, dance, karate).  I don't think I've driven even 5 miles in the past week+.  We used to go to Costco weekly to stock up on groceries, which is essential, but I would also buy a lot of other stuff while there. 

The only thing I think we'll be spending more on is groceries, as we are looking to start home deliveries from Amazon, Costco and others.  But that's a small amount relative to what we'll be saving.

I imagine a lot of people are in the same boat, even with the same paycheck.  Then add in the millions who have been laid off or are at risk of losing their jobs.  How is consumption not going to drop by trillions per year?  Depression, indeed. 

Also, this looks to further drive income inequality.

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Offline qwerty

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2020, 04:12:16 PM »
I was just telling my wife about this the other day.

We are saving more per month

+2200 on school/after school care
+300 for gas
+300 for house cleaning - although I think I’m going to pay our cleaning ladies 50% for each missed visit to help them out.
+300 other kids activities

So that is about 3100/month we will save. Food is about the same. My wife is shopping less because she can’t go the south coast or the spectrum.

Both of our jobs should be safe but you never know in these times.

Offline Cornflakes

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2020, 05:07:22 PM »
Everything mentioned here plus drycleaning costs. I have been in my PJs/workout attire for past 14 days. Wash Dry Repeat.

Other way to look at it, those are all the small businesses that must be suffering badly.

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Offline daedalus

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2020, 05:59:50 PM »
Everything mentioned here plus drycleaning costs. I have been in my PJs/workout attire for past 14 days. Wash Dry Repeat.

Other way to look at it, those are all the small businesses that must be suffering badly.
;D  I didn't want to be the first to admit to staying in PJs all day.

I am trying to stick to a resolution to support my 2 favorite independent restaurants.  Other than a routine Chipotle splurge (now on hiatus), we eat out probably less than once a month on average.  But I told myself I need to step up and support my 2 fav places.  Went to 1 a couple weeks ago, and called the other 1 last night for dinner...no answer.  I will ride by there on my bike in a bit, but I fear the worst for them.  And they're such nice people.

Offline bones

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2020, 07:56:53 AM »
Is anyone here spending more money or even the same money because of this?  Regardless of whether your job is secure:

Can't go out to eat
Can't to go movies
Can't go to theme parks
Can't go on vacations
Can't go to the gym
Can't go to school or daycare
Can't host birthday parties or other social gatherings
Less need to buy a new car or other forms of transportation, and related costs (fuel, service)

Personally my family is saving over $2000/month just on monthly recurring expenses for our daughter (daycare, gym, dance, karate).  I don't think I've driven even 5 miles in the past week+.  We used to go to Costco weekly to stock up on groceries, which is essential, but I would also buy a lot of other stuff while there. 

The only thing I think we'll be spending more on is groceries, as we are looking to start home deliveries from Amazon, Costco and others.  But that's a small amount relative to what we'll be saving.

I imagine a lot of people are in the same boat, even with the same paycheck.  Then add in the millions who have been laid off or are at risk of losing their jobs.  How is consumption not going to drop by trillions per year?  Depression, indeed. 

Also, this looks to further drive income inequality.


Vacations is a big one.  Spring break trip was canceled.  Europe trip planned for June has been cancelled.
Another "savings" that's coming up is summer camps.

Slight uptick in groceries/food.  And I've had to spend some money on things to entertain the kids... video games, educational materials, etc.

Offline bones

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2020, 07:58:07 AM »

+300 for house cleaning - although I think I’m going to pay our cleaning ladies 50% for each missed visit to help them out.


We've canceled one so far (every other week service) and paid him in full.  Thinking about having him help me source/buy TP and cleaning supplies for his next (non) visit.

Offline aquabliss

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2020, 08:33:47 AM »
Everything mentioned here plus drycleaning costs. I have been in my PJs/workout attire for past 14 days. Wash Dry Repeat.

Other way to look at it, those are all the small businesses that must be suffering badly.
;D  I didn't want to be the first to admit to staying in PJs all day.

I am trying to stick to a resolution to support my 2 favorite independent restaurants.  Other than a routine Chipotle splurge (now on hiatus), we eat out probably less than once a month on average.  But I told myself I need to step up and support my 2 fav places.  Went to 1 a couple weeks ago, and called the other 1 last night for dinner...no answer.  I will ride by there on my bike in a bit, but I fear the worst for them.  And they're such nice people.

Let us know the spots, we’ll help support as well.  I like small businesses where the owners go out of their way to make you feel welcome. 

Since we’re on the topic, I highly encourage you guys to try Noonerz in Laguna Hills (open for lunch weekdays only).  The owners name is Wayne (super nice guy), makes hands down the best turkey sandwich you ever ate.  Order the number 1, get the potato salad as your side, and pick a cookie.  I think the combo is like $10.50ish, but best most flavorful sandwich ever.


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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2020, 11:07:46 AM »
I'm worried about who can come back after this.
Once you go 3-car garage... your junk can never go back.
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Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2020, 11:22:06 AM »
The Greater Recession is now fully baked in and is consensus.

This will be worse than 08-09 recession.

Is it going to be 2 or 3 quarters, then recovery start at the beginning of 4th quarter of this year? That would be the best case scenario.

Offline daedalus

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Re: Coronavirus Recession
« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2020, 01:31:40 PM »
Let us know the spots, we’ll help support as well.  I like small businesses where the owners go out of their way to make you feel welcome. 

Since we’re on the topic, I highly encourage you guys to try Noonerz in Laguna Hills (open for lunch weekdays only).  The owners name is Wayne (super nice guy), makes hands down the best turkey sandwich you ever ate.  Order the number 1, get the potato salad as your side, and pick a cookie.  I think the combo is like $10.50ish, but best most flavorful sandwich ever.

I super appreciate it, but I'm not an Irvinite.  I live 50 miles north of you all.  ;)

Happy to say restaurant #2 folks were there when I rode by on my bike.  Picked up a menu, confirmed their hours, and then went home and made a take out order by phone.  Ordered more food than we could eat in 1 meal and tipped heavy at pickup.  It was sad seeing them so slow...it's a sushi place, so I imagine they're having a heck of a time figuring out how much raw fish to order every day to stay in stock while minimizing waste.  Yeah, handmade raw food in the time of a pandemic doesn't sound entirely wise but I will take my chances for the time being.  Maybe I'll switch to their cooked bentos and hot soup/noodle dishes next time. 

 

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