Author Topic: Coronavirus Math  (Read 7662 times)

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Offline morekaos

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #30 on: April 06, 2020, 10:09:39 am »
The markets may be starting to smell a dead rat in the numbers...

Coronavirus: The Wrong Numbers
Will the media ever admit the failure of doomsday projections?

urn on your TV, and cable news will show you a chyron with the cumulative total of known COVID-19 cases in the United States. That number increases daily, by a simple process of addition, but that’s not the number that matters most in terms of coping with the pandemic. What matters, from the perspective of avoiding a crisis that overwhelms our health-care system, is not how many people are infected with the coronavirus, but rather the number of patients hospitalized. As tests for the Chinese virus have become more widely available, a majority of people who test positive — more than 80 percent in some states — are never hospitalized. Earlier projections of a system-crashing crisis have so far been proven false, but the media refuse to acknowledge the failure of the doomsday prophets and their computer-generated pandemic models.

https://spectator.org/coronavirus-the-wrong-numbers/

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #31 on: April 06, 2020, 11:05:02 am »
Regardless if the numbers are wrong... which I've wondered about... continuing the message of social distancing, staying home, hand washing and masks will continue to help not get to that point.
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Offline aquabliss

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #32 on: April 06, 2020, 11:12:21 am »
To get real numbers we need the antibody tests... when will those be available?  (sigh)

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #33 on: April 06, 2020, 11:39:21 am »
We know that aside from practice social distancing suppress the virus transmission, what we don't know is for those that are hospitalized, what drugs have been use on them to treat the severely ills and what percentage have been recovered from those drugs. Several different type of drugs was initiated to use as trials on both healthy individuals and those at close to death.

Alot of unknown variable here. Yes, good news is the number is not sky high. The market may rallies on those lower number, the economic devastation number will come to light after the death tolls peaks end. That's when the market will grasp the severity of crisis as awhole. And behave accordingly to the economy outlook for the rest of the year and going into next year. Right now, its throw all that you got at the fire first, then figure out the spaghetti mess later, and when later comes, it will be something to watch out for.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #34 on: April 06, 2020, 11:56:28 am »
You wont be able to prove a negative. I will repeat what Hitchens said..whether true or not they will declare they were right...



I like Peter Hitchens analogy as to how the blame game will go down if the death rates don't skyrocket soon...

As things stand, the Johnson Government is like a doctor, confronted with a patient suffering from pneumonia. ‘This is serious,’ says the doctor. ‘I have never seen anything like this. Unless I act radically, you will die terribly.’

He then proposes to treat the pneumonia by amputating the patient’s left leg, saying this method has been used successfully in China. The trusting patient agrees. The patient eventually recovers from pneumonia, as he would have done anyway. The doctor proclaims that his treatment, though undoubtedly painful and radical, was a great success. But the patient now has only one leg, and a very large hospital bill which he cannot afford to pay.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8163587/PETER-HITCHENS-Great-Panic-foolish-freedom-broken-economy-crippled.html

Offline morekaos

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #35 on: April 06, 2020, 12:05:58 pm »
...also, thanks for the loan...we may not need it though..

1,000-bed USNS Mercy in Port of Los Angeles admits total of 15 patients so far

SAN PEDRO, Calif. (KABC) -- The U.S. Navy hospital ship Mercy has treated a total of 15 patients since it arrived at the Port of Los Angeles last Friday, according to the ship's commanding officer.

The 1,000-bed hospital ship is treating patients with non-COVID-19 ailments in an effort to relieve the stress of L.A. area hospitals that are dealing with the rising number of novel coronavirus cases.

Mercy's commanding officer Capt. John Rotruck said Thursday in a call with reporters that there are currently 10 patients on the ship and five have been discharged.

Rotruck said patients are transferred after being referred to by the hospitals through a county medical alert center, which the Mercy has been added to.

https://abc7.com/coronavirus-navy-ship-los-angeles-nay-covid19-usns-mercy-us-southern-california/6073320/

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #36 on: April 06, 2020, 12:34:37 pm »
Since we're doing math, I think it's important to point out the critical math component many often missed. The real aftermath.

I see many people like morekaos making the argument as if the 80% never hospitalized population carry 0 cost to society. That's a fallacy.

They go on with their lives and infect more people. Some of those will require hospitalization. Some hospitalized patients will face problems even after recovery. It's called 'Post intensive-care syndrome'. COVID-19 patients are no different. Also, studies have shown that COVID-19 infection could lead to heart injury.

Even at small overall percentage, it will be tremendous economic and human cost to reckon with when we're dealing with millions of infected in the aftermath.

The current projection we're shown is that private insurance premium will shoot up 20%-40% next year. That's just based on the current situation. It could get worse than that.


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Offline morekaos

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #37 on: April 06, 2020, 12:38:58 pm »
...true, until a vaccine is found or natural immunity builds up in the population, or both.  either way life goes on, as it has with all pandemics and disease.

Offline nosuchreality

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #38 on: April 06, 2020, 02:21:07 pm »
The markets may be starting to smell a dead rat in the numbers...

Coronavirus: The Wrong Numbers
Will the media ever admit the failure of doomsday projections?

urn on your TV, and cable news will show you a chyron with the cumulative total of known COVID-19 cases in the United States. That number increases daily, by a simple process of addition, but that’s not the number that matters most in terms of coping with the pandemic. What matters, from the perspective of avoiding a crisis that overwhelms our health-care system, is not how many people are infected with the coronavirus, but rather the number of patients hospitalized. As tests for the Chinese virus have become more widely available, a majority of people who test positive — more than 80 percent in some states — are never hospitalized. Earlier projections of a system-crashing crisis have so far been proven false, but the media refuse to acknowledge the failure of the doomsday prophets and their computer-generated pandemic models.

https://spectator.org/coronavirus-the-wrong-numbers/

Minor nit, NYC hospitals are doing how well?

Offline Maserson

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #39 on: April 06, 2020, 03:33:22 pm »
Karen Kolb Sehlke felt the media was making people "panic like sheep."  Look her up.

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Offline morekaos

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #40 on: April 06, 2020, 05:04:23 pm »
Wait I thought we were having 26,500,000 infections with an assumed death rate of 300,000? How can you give up the ventilators we undoubtedly will need just as soon as our hospitals become overwhelmed and country doctors will decide who lives and who dies because of the massive shortage of ventilators?  Oh the humanity!! I bet Trump made him send them... it’s the only explanation.

California sends 500 ventilators back to national stockpile


OAKLAND — California is loaning 500 ventilators to states like New York where the coronavirus is exacting a deeper toll, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Monday.

The act of generosity completes a bi-coastal aid package after both Washington and Oregon lent medical supplies to New York, which is battling the nation's worst outbreak. Ventilators from California will flow into the Strategic National Stockpile. Oregon announced Saturday it was sending 140 ventilators to New York, while Washington said Sunday it was returning more than 400 of the machines.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/06/california-sends-500-ventilators-back-to-national-stockpile-1272393



https://youtu.be/1YDurhx8QyA
« Last Edit: April 06, 2020, 05:14:41 pm by morekaos »

Offline Compressed-Village

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #41 on: April 06, 2020, 05:24:38 pm »
Duration fatigue, morekaos is tired of waiting for big number to surge. How about go and volunteer at one of the hospital in NY, where doctors and nurses fallen ills caring for the sicken and deceased. You will look at life differently, dude. Or are you going to a bar or your favorite restaurant instead?

Yeah, help make your MAGA great again.

Offline morekaos

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #42 on: April 06, 2020, 05:40:01 pm »
I still go to the office each day, two of my associates tested positive and never knew they had it. I have a sister and niece who are doctors. True this is getting boring but not a lot has changed to my days.  Others are getting restless though.

Offline marmott

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #43 on: April 06, 2020, 07:21:44 pm »
...also, thanks for the loan...we may not need it though..

1,000-bed USNS Mercy in Port of Los Angeles admits total of 15 patients so far

SAN PEDRO, Calif. (KABC) -- The U.S. Navy hospital ship Mercy has treated a total of 15 patients since it arrived at the Port of Los Angeles last Friday, according to the ship's commanding officer.

The 1,000-bed hospital ship is treating patients with non-COVID-19 ailments in an effort to relieve the stress of L.A. area hospitals that are dealing with the rising number of novel coronavirus cases.

Mercy's commanding officer Capt. John Rotruck said Thursday in a call with reporters that there are currently 10 patients on the ship and five have been discharged.

Rotruck said patients are transferred after being referred to by the hospitals through a county medical alert center, which the Mercy has been added to.

https://abc7.com/coronavirus-navy-ship-los-angeles-nay-covid19-usns-mercy-us-southern-california/6073320/

Funny how its sister ship in NYC is as under utilized, they are lacking hospital beds there. Both ships refuse COVID-19 patient and a long list of other conditions, they also don't accept any direct drop off from the emergency services. Patients have to be triaged in another hospital first, all in all it makes them useless and just a PR stunt.

Edit for reference: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-usns-comfort.html

Offline morekaos

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #44 on: April 06, 2020, 07:35:24 pm »
Fixed that...

Trump allows coronavirus patients on Navy ship Comfort in New York after Cuomo asks


https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/06/cuomo-will-ask-trump-to-allow-coronavirus-patients-on-comfort.html

 

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