Author Topic: Coronavirus Math  (Read 7435 times)

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Offline morekaos

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2020, 10:11:32 AM »
At a rate of increase of 20% per day (as for the last week), the US cases of COVID-19 will be over 50 million by the end of April. Even with a mortality rate of 1% only that will imply 500,000 dead people by that time. This will the Easter gift of Trump to America

There are 600,000 cases worldwide. Gavin Newsom said 56% of Californians (25 million by his count) in 8 weeks (from March 19th) for Cali alone by mid May. Since we have a population of 40 million, he must be counting those who aren't actually legal cuz 56% is "only" 22.5 million.

Does this even make sense? Yes it's a bad contagious virus. Yes we should take it seriously but numbers like this must take into account some kind of worse case scenario.

That moron based his number on one of the cruise ships ( closed loop) then just applied it’s numbers to the state (open population) and extrapolated it up so he could put a scary number in his funds request letter. Basically, pulled it out of thin air. His office would not back up the number.

Offline Bullsback

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2020, 02:14:24 PM »
The actual death rate doesn't really matter right now.  It will be figured out in time after the pandemic has run it's course.  In future years, herd immunity should start to build up, lowering the death rate from where it started in 2020.

What matters right now is managing the hospital case load so that we don't spike the number of deaths occurring for COVID, as well as other non-COVID ailments.

I agree that I'm curious about the death rate and infection rate just like you, but there is just no accurate way of calculating it right now.  The models are all based on the incomplete data available to them at the time of model creation.  As more data comes in from countries other than China, S. Korea, and Italy, the models will be adjusted up or down accordingly.

I think death rate is more related to hospital case load as we can assume that deaths are from serious cases which require hospitalization.

And if we are sheltering, how does herd immunity work?

It doesn't work, but we won't be sheltering forever.  Eventually a vaccine will be developed to help speed that up as well.
I'm somewhat optimistic we will see some treatments before the vaccine (mainly because Vaccine is just going to take more time than we think given clinical trials around LT safety vs. a vaccine from existing medication). The one Trump keeps hyping seems like vapor ware, however, I have read in some medical journals there are some emerging treatments that potentially look promising (cutting down severity and cutting down symptomatic window by as much as 50%.  All these "shelter in place" orders are really just buying time.  During this time, you get more manageable outbreaks (than if everyone was just out in the open and getting wildly infected) and thus hospitals can buy more time before hitting capacity, we also get out of the peak flu season windows (again, creating a bit of capacity) and potentially get to warmer weather where the virus is less contagious (virus won't die, but potentially 50% less contagious/harder to get...which is huge).  It isn't going to go away though, which means you probably see manageable containment over summer months (with people getting sick but hospitals able to manage it better) leading back to winter when things are going to hit another crunch point (if a treatment/vaccine aren't ready by that point).  My gut is we'll have 20-25% of the population having already been infected (maybe more once they figure out better viral indicators of those who potentially already have immunity or were asymptomatic).   

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #17 on: March 30, 2020, 09:08:52 AM »
So I know TI has Chinese readership... or people who know people in China.

Can we get the real story from someone brave enough to post it here?

Are the numbers accurate?

Is it true that some metro areas have had no outbreaks?

This article from someone who lives in Beijing basically said everyone was on strict lockdown, is that what is needed to flatten our curve?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siminamistreanu/2020/03/27/beijing-has-defeated-coronavirus-what-it-was-like-living-in-the-locked-down-city-for-two-months/

This one says they are trying to get back to normal:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/can-china-return-normalcy-while-keeping-coronavirus-check

But this one says, there could be a second wave of re-infection:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive

What to believe? That's why I like looking at the math... as long as the reported numbers are truly indicative of reality.
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Offline Cornflakes

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2020, 01:49:14 PM »
This is from a month ago when the videos of forced lockdown, doors weld shut, dorms purged etc. videos were coming out of China and the horror show was full on.. I was getting worried and reached out to my coworker in Shanghai and he was much calmer than I had expected.

Basically, the demeanor was...yeah, we are in lockdown, we are working from home, but it's ok....we will be fine in few days etc...basically optimism.

I guses more or less the same thing is happening everywhere, where people have their worldview and belief system based on what lens they are looking through. I was clearly looking from panic-struck social media and leaked videos of China and clearly my colleague had a different lens.

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Offline nosuchreality

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2020, 07:07:36 AM »
Has anybody picked up any official estimates of the infected multiplier?  By that I mean, if we are reporting 500 positive tests in OC, what is the multiplier for likely cases walking around asymptomatic or not sick enough to march off to the hospital?  I.e. are there really 1000, 2000, 5000, 10000, 15000, 20000 or more?

Any guesstimates from people.  I heard N.J. is only testing most symptomatic.  I think NYC is only testing those at the hospital.  Not sure what CA is doing.


Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #20 on: April 01, 2020, 04:35:08 PM »
An important number to watch on the OC Health site is the newly added hospitalization and ICU count.

This gives us an idea of the impact on our medical resources.
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #21 on: April 01, 2020, 05:24:49 PM »
An important number to watch on the OC Health site is the newly added hospitalization and ICU count.

This gives us an idea of the impact on our medical resources.

Today, both of those numbers went down significantly, so there is some question about how they are tallying them.

Offline mads

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #22 on: April 01, 2020, 05:36:50 PM »
Has anybody picked up any official estimates of the infected multiplier?  By that I mean, if we are reporting 500 positive tests in OC, what is the multiplier for likely cases walking around asymptomatic or not sick enough to march off to the hospital?  I.e. are there really 1000, 2000, 5000, 10000, 15000, 20000 or more?

Any guesstimates from people.  I heard N.J. is only testing most symptomatic.  I think NYC is only testing those at the hospital.  Not sure what CA is doing.


Seems the CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield estimated asymptomatic transmission could be as high as 25% https://abcnews.go.com/Health/asymptomatic-transmission-coronavirus/story?id=69901758.
California too, is recommending that people with mild symptoms should just self isolate instead of seeking testing.
Apparently, we have a backlog of over 50K tests that are pending. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/next-covid-19-testing-crisis/609193/

From the https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-01/where-coronavirus-is-in-orange-county-
Age breakdown of cases: (in OC)
0-17 — 3
18-24 — 65
25-34 — 96
35-44 — 100
45-64 — 236
65+ — 106

Age breakdown of deaths:
25-34 — 2
35-44 — 1
45-64 — 1
65+ — 6

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #23 on: April 01, 2020, 05:59:04 PM »
Locally, we are doing very well.

In OC, we've been bouncing around 6-8% of patients testing positive for Covid-19 for the last 2 weeks.

Statewide, we have about 27% patients testing positive for Covid-19.

If you buy into the idea of labeling counties (by “low, medium, or high risk”) We are low. But many believe labeling is hopeless.

New York state has 38% of patients testing positive for Covid-19. Queens is breaking out with roughly 70% of zip codes reporting 58%-77% testing positive.

Nationally, we are doing poorly. We just broke 5k total death and set a new daily death over 1000. The current trajectory is exponential.

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Offline iacrenter

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2020, 06:53:36 PM »
I'm generally not political on TI but this president needs to act more decisively. He needs to nationalize purchasing of PPE and ventilators and tests. States should not be battling each other for resources. There should be a national 14-30 days stay at home order, not state by state or county by county. We are behind the curve and everyday we fail to act the virus will take more lives than needed. Even if you don't care about lives lost, the fastest way to get our jobs back and economy going is to get to a small enough number of infected so we can contain/manage it. We are no where near that time. It is best if we can take our bitter medicine now as a country so we can move forward to the healing.

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #25 on: April 01, 2020, 09:21:14 PM »
An important number to watch on the OC Health site is the newly added hospitalization and ICU count.

This gives us an idea of the impact on our medical resources.

Today, both of those numbers went down significantly, so there is some question about how they are tallying them.

Sure. 

Day to day tracking is going to be flawed.

But I’m glad they keep giving us more detail.
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Offline nosuchreality

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #26 on: April 02, 2020, 06:22:37 AM »
An important number to watch on the OC Health site is the newly added hospitalization and ICU count.

This gives us an idea of the impact on our medical resources.

Today, both of those numbers went down significantly, so there is some question about how they are tallying them.

Sure. 

Day to day tracking is going to be flawed.

But I’m glad they keep giving us more detail.

Better than nothing.  We know it is actually higher, however looking.

What is the current actual number?  CDC reports 3603 dead as of yesterday 4PM EDT., most media reporting 5113.

I prefer the CDC site, but the differences are becoming large and it's not just a lag.

Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #27 on: April 02, 2020, 12:13:37 PM »
An important number to watch on the OC Health site is the newly added hospitalization and ICU count.

This gives us an idea of the impact on our medical resources.

Today, both of those numbers went down significantly, so there is some question about how they are tallying them.

Sure. 

Day to day tracking is going to be flawed.

But I’m glad they keep giving us more detail.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad they are reporting it, but there are anomalies with the data they are publishing.  There's also no context for the numbers. For instance, how many unoccupied hospital beds and ICU beds are available?  Without that crucial piece of data, the numbers don't mean a lot other than for curve watching.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #28 on: April 03, 2020, 12:35:32 PM »
This site gives us a pretty good visualization of how we are doing in "flattening the curve":

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
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Offline Liar Loan

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Re: Coronavirus Math
« Reply #29 on: April 03, 2020, 07:42:41 PM »
This site gives us a pretty good visualization of how we are doing in "flattening the curve":

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

That's a great site.  I hadn't seen it yet.

The US is on the same curve as Italy, but that's mostly driven by New York.  Other states are individually on a much better curve.  California is doing especially well considering our size.

 

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