irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
These posts keep getting lost in the coronavirus thread so let's use this one to discuss just numbers and math for Covid-19.
I think there are some flaws in the numbers being thrown out there which is fine because I know it's more to stress the importance of social distancing and the need for medical supplies but some things to consider:
Death Rate %:
While this number varies from area to area, this will always be higher than the actual death rate because there is a large number of corona positive people we don't know about... maybe factors of 10+. So if a death rate is say 3% but the actual number of people who have corona are 10x more than those who have taken the test and are positive, the actual death rate is .3%.
Infection %:
Most calculations I see are a worst case scenario but this is also dependent on number tested and time span. While this may reflect a percentage over several months, this is a rolling number as not everyone is infected at the same exact time.
So using numbers from these two sites:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countrieshttps://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data
Let's take South Korea for an example, since they have tested the most people (caveat... these numbers are pulled from the Internet so not sure how accurate):
The death rate based on the above numbers is 1.4% of those *known to be infected*.
But let's extrapolate that out.
According to this site:https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data
316,664 have been tested. Total population of Korea is about 51.5m... so using the tested data percentage of infection (like I said, a dependent number):
9137/316664 = 2.9% infection rate
Using that number and the current death rate, we are looking at 2.9% x 51.5m x 1.4% = 20,909 deaths.
That number while compared to the population seems low, looks like a huge number in isolation. Do we really think South Korea will have about 20k dead with their stringent controls in place?
Let's say South Korea was late and is like Italy with close to a 36% infection rate and death rate of 10%:
10% of 18.54m = 1,854,0000 deaths?
Does that look right? Almost 2m South Koreans would have died? And let's using Italy's numbers on Italy itself, 2,178,000 will die?
I'm asking because this is the same kind of extrapolation people are making for the US and I don't think it's accurate.
And don't get me wrong, this is not to say this is not serious and the stress on available medical staff/devices will be more, but on the other side, it may be exaggerated when you actually look at the numbers.
I guess I'm trying to get at here is what is the actual infection rate? And of those infected, what is the actual death rate?
My math above is probably wrong, but at the same time, it's hard for me to understand the numbers being thrown about based on actual data that we can see.
TLDR: Are the numbers being forecast for the US realistic, under or over?
I think there are some flaws in the numbers being thrown out there which is fine because I know it's more to stress the importance of social distancing and the need for medical supplies but some things to consider:
Death Rate %:
While this number varies from area to area, this will always be higher than the actual death rate because there is a large number of corona positive people we don't know about... maybe factors of 10+. So if a death rate is say 3% but the actual number of people who have corona are 10x more than those who have taken the test and are positive, the actual death rate is .3%.
Infection %:
Most calculations I see are a worst case scenario but this is also dependent on number tested and time span. While this may reflect a percentage over several months, this is a rolling number as not everyone is infected at the same exact time.
So using numbers from these two sites:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countrieshttps://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data
Let's take South Korea for an example, since they have tested the most people (caveat... these numbers are pulled from the Internet so not sure how accurate):
Coronavirus Cases:
9,137
Deaths:
126
Recovered:
3,730
The death rate based on the above numbers is 1.4% of those *known to be infected*.
But let's extrapolate that out.
According to this site:https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data
316,664 have been tested. Total population of Korea is about 51.5m... so using the tested data percentage of infection (like I said, a dependent number):
9137/316664 = 2.9% infection rate
Using that number and the current death rate, we are looking at 2.9% x 51.5m x 1.4% = 20,909 deaths.
That number while compared to the population seems low, looks like a huge number in isolation. Do we really think South Korea will have about 20k dead with their stringent controls in place?
Let's say South Korea was late and is like Italy with close to a 36% infection rate and death rate of 10%:
10% of 18.54m = 1,854,0000 deaths?
Does that look right? Almost 2m South Koreans would have died? And let's using Italy's numbers on Italy itself, 2,178,000 will die?
I'm asking because this is the same kind of extrapolation people are making for the US and I don't think it's accurate.
And don't get me wrong, this is not to say this is not serious and the stress on available medical staff/devices will be more, but on the other side, it may be exaggerated when you actually look at the numbers.
I guess I'm trying to get at here is what is the actual infection rate? And of those infected, what is the actual death rate?
My math above is probably wrong, but at the same time, it's hard for me to understand the numbers being thrown about based on actual data that we can see.
TLDR: Are the numbers being forecast for the US realistic, under or over?