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Online qwerty

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2115 on: June 02, 2020, 04:16:15 PM »
So you firmly believe our lockdown helped us to have less fatal rates.

I'm still in question.

Let's see how it turns out from those protested areas.

Less fatal rates?  Less fatalities is a no brainer yes.  Less fatal rates, is a likely. 

NYC would likely be somewhat worse, possibly complete breakdown.  Economically they’d be worse.  Yes worse, the people would have shut themselves down quite quickly after the time NYC did impose rules.

Once that uncontrolled shit show started in NYC it economically would have made what they have now look like creme puffs and mimosas.  And no one would be talking about reopening, they’d all be screaming bailouts.  And out state would have been a cluster job too as anybody with any means would have fled the city.

Maybe the cure is worse than the disease need to figure out how NYC would have played out and what that would have meant to all those big companies with heavy presence in that region. Hint, think like an airline.

Well the virus is still here. If what you are saying is accurate people should still be afraid to go out knowing they can die.

So reopening should not do any good?

Offline nosuchreality

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2116 on: June 02, 2020, 05:07:09 PM »
NYC’ new daily counts are lower than OC’s which for being more than twice our size is great. 

Yesterday’s new case count was 65 in NYC.   April peak was 100x that. 


And frankly, 65 new cases today implies an very different undiagnosed new cases in NYC than the last time at 65 cases in early March.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2020, 05:19:14 PM by nosuchreality »

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2117 on: June 03, 2020, 12:42:29 AM »
Cases may be rising:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/health/protests-coronavirus-spread-concerns/index.html

“Sunday alone saw an increase of almost 20,000 cases nationwide, according to the CNN count compiled with data from John's Hopkins.

In Washington DC, the health department on Monday reported a new peak in cases meaning a delay to moving from phase one of the District's reopening program to a less restrictive phase.

In California, cases jumped 11% in days, from 98,980 reported Wednesday to 110,583 cases Sunday, according to the health department's data.”

Let’s hope for the best.


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Offline freedomcm

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2118 on: June 03, 2020, 08:08:09 AM »
Well the CDC said transmission by surface is low risk. The WHO says if you are not sick then you should only wear a mask if you are taking care of someone who is sick (contradicts the CDC).


As I read the guidelines, WHO was saying that N95 respirators were only needed to prevent self-infection when caring for suspected COVID patients, but that 'face masks' were a useful precaution to prevent spread to others.

Did I read that incorrectly?

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2119 on: June 03, 2020, 08:28:00 AM »
Since morekaos likes to point to Sweden on how their no-lockdown was right:

Man Behind Sweden’s Controversial Virus Strategy Admits Mistakes

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

Quote
Sweden’s top epidemiologist has admitted his strategy to fight Covid-19 resulted in too many deaths, after persuading his country to avoid a strict lockdown.

“If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” Anders Tegnell said in an interview with Swedish Radio.

Tegnell is the brains behind Sweden’s controversial approach to fighting the virus, and the government of Stefan Lofven has deferred to the epidemiologist in its official response to the pandemic. Gatherings of more than 50 people continue to be banned, but throughout the crisis Swedes have been able to visit restaurants, go shopping, attend gyms and send children under 16 to school.

The laxer approach to containing the virus has drawn both praise and condemnation from across the globe. What is beyond debate, however, is the effect the strategy has had on the country’s death toll.

At 43 deaths per 100,000, Sweden’s mortality rate is among the highest globally and far exceeds that of neighboring Denmark and Norway, which imposed much tougher lockdowns at the onset of the pandemic.

But at least their economy is okay right qwerty?

Quote
What’s more, there’s so far limited evidence that Sweden’s decision to leave much of its society open will support the economy. Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson recently warned that Sweden is facing its worst economic crisis since World War II, with GDP set to slump 7% in 2020, roughly as much as the rest of the EU.

The government has started to grow concerned at the apparent missteps taken to fight the spread of the virus in Sweden. On Monday, Lofven promised there’d be an inquiry into the handling of the crisis before the summer.

Some lawmakers in Sweden’s parliament were quick to weigh in. Jimmie Akesson, the leader of the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, tweeted that the comments by Tegnell are “astonishing.”

“For months, critics have been consistently dismissed. Sweden has done everything right, the rest of the world has done it wrong. And now, suddenly, this,” Akesson said.

Like Ken and I have said, regardless of the lockdown, the economy will suffer... and if you don't lockdown, the people will suffer too.

If the US had a strict national lockdown, we probably would be less than 100k dead... but if we had no lockdown... that number would probably be over 200k if not higher... according to the qwermodels. :)
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2120 on: June 03, 2020, 08:33:01 AM »
Well the CDC said transmission by surface is low risk. The WHO says if you are not sick then you should only wear a mask if you are taking care of someone who is sick (contradicts the CDC).


As I read the guidelines, WHO was saying that N95 respirators were only needed to prevent self-infection when caring for suspected COVID patients, but that 'face masks' were a useful precaution to prevent spread to others.

Did I read that incorrectly?


This is going around on Facebook. The anti-mask movement is claiming that since the WHO recommends only healthy people who are taking care of Covid infected should wear *medical* masks, that masks are not needed.

What the WHO is doing, it trying to make sure that medical masks are preserved for those who need it. If you download their Assessment, they talk about non-medical masks and how that may also help stop the spread... but because it's not front and center on their website... everyone points to the "only healthy people caring for Covid infected" recommendation.

But the CDC has reversed their stance after further study and recommends cloth face coverings and there are multiple studies that show that masks reduce the droplets and viral load exhaled by people.
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Offline nosuchreality

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2121 on: June 03, 2020, 08:38:45 AM »

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2122 on: June 03, 2020, 09:13:53 AM »
Two can play this game.

Sweden outperformed its euro neighbors by not locking down economy.

As I said, the economic demise would have been less than if there was a lockdown. It’s common sense. You and others make assumptions of how bad it would have been that are absolutely baseless. It’s obvious to anyone that if there was no lockdown the economic impact would have been much less. There is no way we reach 40 million unemployed without a lockdown. I have agreed with you that the economy would have still been impacted.  Buts insane to think we end up in the same place economically with and without a lockdown

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2123 on: June 03, 2020, 09:21:36 AM »
Oh look, masks and social distancing does work...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

Interesting, that study was funded by WHO.

I found this though at the very bottom:

Quote
Exceptions:

If the subject's calves have a diameter larger than 30cm, a mask is not effective.

😁
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2124 on: June 03, 2020, 09:32:52 AM »
Two can play this game.

Sweden outperformed its euro neighbors by not locking down economy.

As I said, the economic demise would have been less than if there was a lockdown. It’s common sense. You and others make assumptions of how bad it would have been that are absolutely baseless. It’s obvious to anyone that if there was no lockdown the economic impact would have been much less. There is no way we reach 40 million unemployed without a lockdown. I have agreed with you that the economy would have still been impacted.  Buts insane to think we end up in the same place economically with and without a lockdown

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

Did you read the article or just the headline?

It says that their GDP will be just as bad as Germany's.

Quote
Last month, Sweden’s central bank said the pandemic had damaged the country’s business and supply chains and warned many companies would be “hit hard,” with lots of people likely to lose their jobs over the coming months.

The National Institute of Economic Research, a respected think tank, said in a statement published April 29 that it believed Sweden’s economy would shrink 7% this year, with unemployment anticipated to rise to 10.2%.

“While Sweden’s economy has fared better than the worst-affected countries, as a result of its comparatively light-touch lockdown, it is still set for a year to forget,” David Oxley, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note published Thursday.

“We expect the decline in GDP this year as a whole to be in a similar ballpark to that in Germany,” he added.

April, May and June may paint a different picture for Sweden as their death toll rises.

We won't agree on this but it's not just my opinion. I've posted several articles and studies on how an economy will suffer if a pandemic is not controlled. You have ignored them all citing "common sense". Yet, in February, before the lockdowns were even announced, the Dow dropped over 15%. And then you say that means nothing but you posted about pulling all of your money out of the market due to the riots.

Your own actions contradict your stance.
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Offline Mety

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2125 on: June 03, 2020, 09:40:01 AM »
Cases may be rising:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/health/protests-coronavirus-spread-concerns/index.html

“Sunday alone saw an increase of almost 20,000 cases nationwide, according to the CNN count compiled with data from John's Hopkins.

In Washington DC, the health department on Monday reported a new peak in cases meaning a delay to moving from phase one of the District's reopening program to a less restrictive phase.

In California, cases jumped 11% in days, from 98,980 reported Wednesday to 110,583 cases Sunday, according to the health department's data.”

Let’s hope for the best.

Cases already rising? WOW, that was fast. So those protesters did their thing and went to the hospital for checkup which already resulted positive so that CNN can report about the case increase this fast? Hmm...

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Online eyephone

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2126 on: June 03, 2020, 10:00:40 AM »
Forget Sweden. We should be like Denmark!! No recent covid deaths.
(That is winning)

The US is spending too much money. We are recreating the wheel and failing.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2020, 10:11:26 AM by eyephone »

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2127 on: June 03, 2020, 10:18:34 AM »
Hey eyephone,

Your anti-Turmp opinion is well heard loud and clear. Please move on to something fresh for us. By the way, looks like your friend might be back. Some deep knowledge about Irvine housing and remodeling is much more interesting than political agendas recycling the same voice over and over.

Thanks!

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2128 on: June 03, 2020, 10:19:16 AM »
Cases may be rising:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/health/protests-coronavirus-spread-concerns/index.html

“Sunday alone saw an increase of almost 20,000 cases nationwide, according to the CNN count compiled with data from John's Hopkins.

In Washington DC, the health department on Monday reported a new peak in cases meaning a delay to moving from phase one of the District's reopening program to a less restrictive phase.

In California, cases jumped 11% in days, from 98,980 reported Wednesday to 110,583 cases Sunday, according to the health department's data.”

Let’s hope for the best.

Cases already rising? WOW, that was fast. So those protesters did their thing and went to the hospital for checkup which already resulted positive so that CNN can report about the case increase this fast? Hmm...

So you are joining qwerty in his pedantic ways?

That's why I said "may" be rising. It could just be a backlog of prior cases or increased testing. It could also be a rise due to reopenings, not just the protests.

We also may see case count drop this upcoming week because many testing centers had to close due to riots.
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Online qwerty

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2129 on: June 03, 2020, 10:26:18 AM »
@IHO - did you miss the part about Sweden fairing better than most of its neighbors?

The stock market was down 15% in February because it was baking in the lower economic activity. It wasn’t pricing in a full blown shutdown. 

You keep on bring back that my actions contradict my statements. Not sure how. The reason I’m thinking about pulling the money out is to potentially time the market (which may or may not work out). We have had a good rebound from the lows of 18k for Dow and are back to over 26k today. The dow is about 12% from its all time lows.

I’m curiois to see what happens when the government stops spending and reality starts to set in in August when the extra unemployment runs out. And there is the unknown of the scary second wave of covid that could hit this fall and how the market may react.

I manage my money based on how I think the markets will react not based on my personal views. A lot of uncertainty going on right now. And it just seems odd that the market would just go back up to a record high without another decent decrease (10%?)

I haven’t pulled any money out but it kind of seems like a decent time to do so right about now.

 

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