Author Topic: coronavirus  (Read 115913 times)

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Offline eyephone

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2040 on: May 21, 2020, 10:18:02 pm »
Aesop warned us in the 6th century BC (sorry Ken  :) ) about the boy who cried wolf. By deliberately spreading outlandishly false warnings hoping to scare people into changing their behavior, the government has become Aesop's "boy". When the wolf finally comes, no one will listen to the boy.

Institutional and government consensus sometimes is wrong and needs to be challenged. But taken too far can bring real negative consequences too.

The erosion of institutional trust hits us hard at a time when trust is exactly what we need. The collapse of institutional trust made COVID-19 worse.

People don't trust the government or the media to deliver the truth. People don't trust the schools to make the best decisions for kids. People don't even trust doctors, turning to politicians for medical advice. And unfortunately, people don't trust each other to do what's best for our collective interest, like wear freaking masks.

We need trusts & public buy-ins. And we need a more data centric / data driven approach. This is how other countries better managed COVID-19.

Data points from the 6th century, or the 14th century, or 1918 are bad data points.

This is why we should mimic/copy what other countries did to win against covid.
Why recreate the wheel when it is already built?
(No magic drug/vaccine required)

Until this day I hear from people that covid is fake.

The only problem is the US is much larger than all those other countries and the governmental/societal structure is different.

Freedom has its pros and cons.

In the US, people protest because they can%u2019t go the beach, in those other countries, people can%u2019t even leave their house at all.

I agree and not arguing with you IHO. But people thought taking temperature before they enter an establishment would never happen in America. But now there are some places that require a person to do so. 

The people who I talked are in shock and disbelief that other countries are able to beat covid. (The previous countries that I previously mentioned vote for their leadership in government. One of the country does not that starts with a V. But who cares at this moment of time? The key is to find ways to beat covid.)

We will never get over this until people change. (I hope for the best)
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 11:27:15 pm by eyephone »

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Offline qwerty

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2041 on: May 22, 2020, 06:23:32 am »
Dear Mr. President:

Thousands of physicians in all specialties and from all States would like to express our gratitude for your leadership. We write to you today to express our alarm over the exponentially growing negative health consequences of the national shutdown.
In medical terms, the shutdown was a mass casualty incident.
During a mass casualty incident, victims are immediately triaged to black, red, yellow, or green. The first group, triage level black, includes those who require too many resources to save during a mass crisis. The red group has severe injuries that are survivable with treatment, the yellow group has serious injuries that are not immediately life threatening, and the green group has minor injuries.
The red group receives highest priority. The next priority is to ensure that the other two groups do not deteriorate a level. Decades of research have shown that by strictly following this algorithm, we save the maximum number of lives.
Millions of Americans are already at triage level red. These include 150,000 Americans per month who would have had a new cancer detected through routine screening that hasn’t happened, millions who have missed routine dental care to fix problems strongly linked to heart disease/death, and preventable cases of stroke, heart attack, and child abuse. Suicide hotline phone calls have increased 600%.
Tens of millions are at triage level yellow. Liquor sales have increased 300-600%, cigarettes sales have increased, rent has gone unpaid, family relationships have become frayed, and millions of well-child check-ups have been missed.
Hundreds of millions are at triage level green. These are people who currently are solvent, but at risk should economic conditions worsen. Poverty and financial uncertainty is closely linked to poor health.
A continued shutdown means hundreds of millions of Americans will downgrade a level. The following are real examples from our practices.
Patient E.S. is a mother with two children whose office job was reduced to parttime and whose husband was furloughed. The father is drinking more, the mother is depressed and not managing her diabetes well, and the children are barely doing any schoolwork.
Patient A.F. has chronic but previously stable health conditions. Her elective hip
replacement was delayed, which caused her to become nearly sedentary, resulting in a pulmonary embolism in April.
Patient R.T. is an elderly nursing home patient, who had a small stroke in early March but was expected to make a nearly complete recovery. Since the shutdown, he has had no physical or speech therapy, and no visitors. He has lost weight, and is deteriorating rather than making progress.
Patient S.O. is a college freshman who cannot return to normal life, school, and friendships. He risks depression, alcohol abuse, drug abuse, trauma, and future financial uncertainty.
We are alarmed at what appears to be the lack of consideration for the future health of our patients. The downstream health effects of deteriorating a level are being massively under-estimated and under-reported. This is an order of magnitude error.
It is impossible to overstate the short, medium, and long-term harm to people’s health with a continued shutdown. Losing a job is one of life’s most stressful events, and the effect on a person’s health is not lessened because it also has happened to 30 million other people. Keeping schools and universities closed is incalculably detrimental for children, teenagers, and young adults for decades to come.
The millions of casualties of a continued shutdown will be hiding in plain sight, but they will be called alcoholism, homelessness, suicide, heart attack, stroke, or kidney failure. In youths it will be called financial instability, unemployment, despair, drug addiction, unplanned pregnancies, poverty, and abuse.
Because the harm is diffuse, there are those who hold that it does not exist. We, the undersigned, know otherwise.
Please let us know if we may be of assistance.
Respectfully,
Simone Gold, M.D., J.D. & >500 physicians

Just exchanging one death for another.

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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2042 on: May 22, 2020, 06:59:40 am »
Just exchanging one death for another.

Are you sure? Do you know what that number is?

“Can’t prove a negative.”

:)
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Offline qwerty

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2043 on: May 22, 2020, 07:01:01 am »
Just exchanging one death for another.

Are you sure? Do you know what that number is?

“Can’t prove a negative.”

:)

See you are getting smarter by the day :-)

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2044 on: May 22, 2020, 12:00:41 pm »
Just exchanging one death for another.

Are you sure? Do you know what that number is?

“Can’t prove a negative.”

:)

See you are getting smarter by the day :-)

That's not what it feels like when I have to explain flattening the curve over and over again. :)
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Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2045 on: May 26, 2020, 09:19:18 am »
So I'm sure you've all seen the videos and pics of crowded gatherings for Memorial Day weekend.

This is why certain things need to be mandated because people won't adhere to safety protocols if they are only "recommended". It's also why what can be done in some countries can never be done in the US because a sizable portion of the qwerpopulation just don't think it's necessary to flatten the curve.

Let's see what happens to the numbers.
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Offline Kings

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2046 on: May 26, 2020, 09:30:02 am »
is this bad news, or good news? i can't tell anymore guys.  someone tell me what to think!

Quote
Oxford scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine say there is now only a 50% chance of success because the number of UK cases is falling too quickly

Scientists involved in one of the world's leading studies into finding a vaccine for the coronavirus say there is currently only a 50% chance of success because the number of people in Britain with the virus is falling too quickly.

The Oxford University mission to find a vaccine for the COVID-19 virus is in "a race against the virus disappearing, and against time," Adam Hill, director at Oxford University's Jenner Institute, said this weekend.

Hill told The Telegraph newspaper that the number of people in the UK with the virus was falling at a rate that meant it might not be possible to effectively test the experimental vaccine known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19.

"At the moment, there's a 50% chance that we get no result at all," he said.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-oxford-scientists-predict-fifty-per-cent-vaccine-trial-success-2020-5

Online nosuchreality

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2047 on: May 26, 2020, 09:32:41 am »
Anybody notice any post holiday irregularities?

Our family dpog walk after dinner last night, Memorial Day night, was very different than previous ones.  Previously, you occasionally saw someone walking with a mask.  Last night, a solid third or more of the groups had masks on. 

@IHO, I'm a little more jaded on pictures of the party  crowd in the water bar etc. Frankly, those crowds were extremely light for what those would normally be.  For people walking the boardwalk, not sure how that's any worse than Costco, Target or the perpetual line at Home Depot.

JIMHO, give it two-three weeks,if we can't contact trace a noticeable set of infections, we should probably re-evaluate.  I look at at the Coconuts Bar picture being bandied about and frankly, most there look to be under 30, early 30s. Low risk groups that are carriers but very low death risk.  Yea, they could infect their parents, grandparents, etc, and a bunch of other people. 

We won't find the people that got it from them at the grocery store, but they give to two friends, who give it to two friends who all carry it back to their families should be identifiable.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2048 on: May 26, 2020, 10:09:35 am »
@nsr:

Regarding the lines at local stores. at least people are wearing masks and staying 6 feet apart... those images like the Ozark and the waterpark in Houston are zero distancing and no masks.

I hope the heat has helped minimized presence of the virus but we'll see.
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Offline WTTCHMN

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2049 on: May 26, 2020, 10:31:24 am »
The Price of a Virus Lockdown: Economic ‘Free Fall’ in California

California has an estimated unemployment rate above 20 percent, according to Mr. Newsom — far higher than the 14.7 percent national rate and similar to the estimated rate for New York State, where the virus has hit the hardest.

California faces a daunting budget deficit of $54 billion, which could force painful cuts to schools, social programs, health care and road building. And the state was the first to borrow from the federal government to finance its $13 billion in unemployment claims.

California has a hugely diversified economy, and many of the industries that have made it so strong are also the ones getting hit the hardest. By many measures California, which has the nation’s largest tourism industry, public university system, entertainment industry and port system and produces far more food than any other state, stands to lose more in the coronavirus-induced recession than anywhere else.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/us/coronavirus-california-economy.html

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Offline morekaos

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2050 on: May 26, 2020, 01:20:45 pm »
Ta-daaa!!!..
Long Beach coronavirus death toll hits 70; officials say city could reopen faster than LA County

City officials said Friday they believe Long Beach could be on a trajectory to lift more of the closures that were intended to stem the further spread of the virus. But first, Long Beach must persuade state officials to allow the city to move more quickly than Los Angeles County in the reopening process.

https://www.presstelegram.com/2020/05/22/long-beach-coronavirus-death-toll-hits-70-officials-say-city-could-reopen-faster-than-la-county/

Offline qwerty

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2051 on: May 26, 2020, 02:17:05 pm »
Updated Cdc coronavirus death rate, less than .3%

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

35% never devolop symptoms.

This is why people don’t care about social distancing or wearing masks. Everyone is selfish and unless you are over 65-70 you are probably going to like your odds.

This is why in a word with 7.6 billion people and only 348,000 deaths people are ready to get back to their normal life.

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Offline qwerty

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2052 on: May 26, 2020, 02:20:18 pm »
And I don’t know about you guys but the mask is getting more and more uncomfortable as it continues to get warmer. I feel bad for people that have to wear them for your job and you break a sweat or are outdoors.

Is it really safe to wear the mask all day? Those masks from China probably have a little fiberglass in them 

Offline Kings

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2053 on: May 26, 2020, 03:07:41 pm »
Updated Cdc coronavirus death rate, less than .3%

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

35% never devolop symptoms.

This is why people don’t care about social distancing or wearing masks. Everyone is selfish and unless you are over 65-70 you are probably going to like your odds.

This is why in a word with 7.6 billion people and only 348,000 deaths people are ready to get back to their normal life.

this is the real meat and potatoes:

Quote
The CDC estimates that the CFR for COVID-19 falls to 0.05 percent among people younger than 50 and rises to 1.3 percent among people 65 and older. For people in the middle (ages 50–64), the estimated CFR is 0.2 percent.

0.05% under 50 and 0.2% 50-64

back to work, people!

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #2054 on: May 26, 2020, 03:11:29 pm »
100k in the US and almost 350k worldwide are the real numbers... and it's not done yet.

Interesting how the narrative moves to percentages when the actual death count gets high.
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