2016 Drop

irvinehomeowner

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
While our current "slowdown" is the hot topic, I don't remember this much discussion in 2016 when median prices dropped over 12%.

What happened during that time frame that caused this? Trump elected? Rates jumped? Deadpool movie came out?

Maybe we did talk about it but I don't recall anything, I even checked the Dow and it was going up during this time frame.

Was someone Nostradamus back then and recommended people to wait in July 2016?

 
The 2015?16 stock market selloff, also known as The Great Fall of China, was the period of decline in the value of stock prices globally that occurred between June 2015 to June 2016. It included the 2015?16 Chinese stock market turbulence, in which the SSE Composite Index fell 43% in just over 2 months between June 2015 and August 2015,[1][2] which culminated in the devaluation of the yuan.[3][4] Investors sold shares globally as a result of slowing growth in the GDP of China, a fall in petroleum prices, the Greek debt default in June 2015,[5] the effects of the end of quantitative easing in the United States in October 2014,[6] a sharp rise in bond yields in early 2016, and finally, in June 2016, the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, in which Brexit was voted upon.[7]



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_stock_market_selloff
 
irvinehomeowner said:
While our current "slowdown" is the hot topic, I don't remember this much discussion in 2016 when median prices dropped over 12%.
Click to expand...

The hottest topic at TI is "Who is Yelly?"

Is he still here?
Is he LL?
Is someone his wife?

Yeah, that would surely give more motivation to people write stuff here.

 
Yelly won't come back. It was a team of devotion to take down competitors sales at Eastwood.

Now that Eastwood is almost completely sold out. Game over. :)
 
Compressed-Village said:
Yelly won't come back. It was a team of devotion to take down competitors sales at Eastwood.

Now that Eastwood is almost completely sold out. Game over. :)
Click to expand...

I know you miss him too.
 
Mety said:
Compressed-Village said:
Yelly won't come back. It was a team of devotion to take down competitors sales at Eastwood.

Now that Eastwood is almost completely sold out. Game over. :)
Click to expand...

I know you miss him too.
Click to expand...

Nahhhh, I can live with or without. Really don?t care much. As long as the information is base on self beliefs, informative so other can learn, AND not offensive is what matter. Everyone entitled to their own opinion.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
So was it lag? According to Wikipedia, this was before the Irvine median prices dropped:

By July 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recovered and achieved record highs. The FTSE 100 Index did not do so until later in 2016.
Click to expand...

According to the Zillow chart:
https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

It started dropping August 2016 and bottomed out in June 2017.
Click to expand...

That drop isn't showing on Larry's chart or Redfin's charting tool (your fav), so I'm skeptical of Zillow's median price data.
 
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
So was it lag? According to Wikipedia, this was before the Irvine median prices dropped:

By July 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recovered and achieved record highs. The FTSE 100 Index did not do so until later in 2016.
Click to expand...

According to the Zillow chart:
https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

It started dropping August 2016 and bottomed out in June 2017.
Click to expand...

That drop isn't showing on Larry's chart or Redfin's charting tool (your fav), so I'm skeptical of Zillow's median price data.
Click to expand...

Weird.

On Redfin, their biggest drop looks like Dec 2016 (818k) to Jan 2017 (735k) which is 10% and something someone would have posted about.

Larry's numbers don't even show a dip after 2012... but his chart is only resale so not sure if that's a factor.

Wasn't Redfin where you got your 30% drop for the last crash? Larry's numbers look closer to 23%.

Gah... we'll see what USC posts, although I think he only does median $/sft.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Liar Loan said:
irvinehomeowner said:
So was it lag? According to Wikipedia, this was before the Irvine median prices dropped:

By July 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recovered and achieved record highs. The FTSE 100 Index did not do so until later in 2016.
Click to expand...

According to the Zillow chart:
https://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca/home-values/

It started dropping August 2016 and bottomed out in June 2017.
Click to expand...

That drop isn't showing on Larry's chart or Redfin's charting tool (your fav), so I'm skeptical of Zillow's median price data.
Click to expand...

Weird.

On Redfin, their biggest drop looks like Dec 2016 (818k) to Jan 2017 (735k) which is 10% and something someone would have posted about.

Larry's numbers don't even show a dip after 2012... but his chart is only resale so not sure if that's a factor.

Wasn't Redfin where you got your 30% drop for the last crash? Larry's numbers look closer to 23%.

Gah... we'll see what USC posts, although I think he only does median $/sft.
Click to expand...

Trulia showed a 28% drop based on $/Sq Ft.  Redfin's tool only goes back to Jan 2010.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Hmmm. Can?t find the Trulia chart anymore. Did someone screen cap that chart? Did I?
Click to expand...

Some of the numbers may have been hand typed into the thread, but I don't think anybody screen capped it.  It's unfortunate that Trulia removed historical data from their site.
 
Compressed-Village said:
Mety said:
Compressed-Village said:
Yelly won't come back. It was a team of devotion to take down competitors sales at Eastwood.

Now that Eastwood is almost completely sold out. Game over. :)
Click to expand...

I know you miss him too.
Click to expand...

Nahhhh, I can live with or without. Really don?t care much. As long as the information is base on self beliefs, informative so other can learn, AND not offensive is what matter. Everyone entitled to their own opinion.
Click to expand...

Is being offensive wrong?
 
Mety said:
Compressed-Village said:
Mety said:
Compressed-Village said:
Yelly won't come back. It was a team of devotion to take down competitors sales at Eastwood.

Now that Eastwood is almost completely sold out. Game over. :)
Click to expand...

I know you miss him too.
Click to expand...

Nahhhh, I can live with or without. Really don?t care much. As long as the information is base on self beliefs, informative so other can learn, AND not offensive is what matter. Everyone entitled to their own opinion.
Click to expand...

Is being offensive wrong?
Click to expand...

Yo momma is so old... she knew Burger King while he was still a prince


Laughter can lower blood pressure, lighten tense situations, and help you bond with friends and family.


Depends on your audience. 😀





 
So USC's data goes back to Jan 2008 which I think captures the peak (unless the peak was in 2007).

Here is the data from that time to recovery for Irvine median prices:

Jan-08 580,000
Feb-08 680,000
Mar-08 670,000
Apr-08 600,000
May-08 605,700
Jun-08 592,000
Jul-08 597,500
Aug-08 600,000
Sep-08 593,000
Oct-08 565,000
Nov-08 560,000
Dec-08 597,500
Jan-09 495,000
Feb-09 580,000
Mar-09 540,000
Apr-09 560,000
May-09 562,500
Jun-09 579,900
Jul-09 550,000
Aug-09 585,000
Sep-09 530,000
Oct-09 577,500
Nov-09 552,000
Dec-09 576,000
Jan-10 519,500
Feb-10 529,000
Mar-10 575,000
Apr-10 565,000
May-10 562,500
Jun-10 588,800
Jul-10 567,500
Aug-10 575,000
Sep-10 579,000
Oct-10 513,500
Nov-10 600,000
Dec-10 566,250
Jan-11 560,000
Feb-11 519,000
Mar-11 540,000
Apr-11 525,000
May-11 552,556
Jun-11 545,000
Jul-11 549,000
Aug-11 540,000
Sep-11 500,500
Oct-11 496,000
Nov-11 505,000
Dec-11 542,500
Jan-12 505,000
Feb-12 432,000
Mar-12 511,500
Apr-12 494,000
May-12 564,100
Jun-12 528,500
Jul-12 558,750
Aug-12 562,450
Sep-12 565,000
Oct-12 570,000
Nov-12 580,000
Dec-12 562,500
Jan-13 577,625
Feb-13 625,000
Mar-13 615,000
Apr-13 666,500
May-13 664,000
Jun-13 638,000
Jul-13 659,500
Aug-13 660,000
Sep-13 690,000

Does that look like a about 5-6 years from peak to peak (Feb 08 to Sep 13)? Seems like Irvine beat OC and California's recovery.

What about how much Irvine dropped during this crash?

I know some people will use the extreme high in Feb 08 and the extreme low in Feb 12 but that doesn't account for housing stock, *seasonal* changes, etc... instead I'll use a 6-month rolling median (since someone doesn't like averages).

I compared Feb-08 to Jul-08 since that captures the highest 6 months of the peak (at least within the data available) to the lowest 6 month trough, which is Nov-11 to Apr-12.

Median 6-month High: $602,850
Median 6-month Low: $505,000
Drop: 16%

That to me, was a reflection of my own experience of house hunting in Irvine. Is that more or less accurate than the reality of most people? I guess it depends on the data your are looking at.

I can concede that some homes could have been discounted for more, but I don't think that represents the majority stock of Irvine homes as a whole.

But I could be wrong.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
So USC's data goes back to Jan 2008 which I think captures the peak (unless the peak was in 2007).

Here is the data from that time to recovery for Irvine median prices:

Jan-08 580,000
Feb-08 680,000
Mar-08 670,000
Apr-08 600,000
May-08 605,700
Jun-08 592,000
Jul-08 597,500
Aug-08 600,000
Sep-08 593,000
Oct-08 565,000
Nov-08 560,000
Dec-08 597,500
Jan-09 495,000
Feb-09 580,000
Mar-09 540,000
Apr-09 560,000
May-09 562,500
Jun-09 579,900
Jul-09 550,000
Aug-09 585,000
Sep-09 530,000
Oct-09 577,500
Nov-09 552,000
Dec-09 576,000
Jan-10 519,500
Feb-10 529,000
Mar-10 575,000
Apr-10 565,000
May-10 562,500
Jun-10 588,800
Jul-10 567,500
Aug-10 575,000
Sep-10 579,000
Oct-10 513,500
Nov-10 600,000
Dec-10 566,250
Jan-11 560,000
Feb-11 519,000
Mar-11 540,000
Apr-11 525,000
May-11 552,556
Jun-11 545,000
Jul-11 549,000
Aug-11 540,000
Sep-11 500,500
Oct-11 496,000
Nov-11 505,000
Dec-11 542,500
Jan-12 505,000
Feb-12 432,000
Mar-12 511,500
Apr-12 494,000
May-12 564,100
Jun-12 528,500
Jul-12 558,750
Aug-12 562,450
Sep-12 565,000
Oct-12 570,000
Nov-12 580,000
Dec-12 562,500
Jan-13 577,625
Feb-13 625,000
Mar-13 615,000
Apr-13 666,500
May-13 664,000
Jun-13 638,000
Jul-13 659,500
Aug-13 660,000
Sep-13 690,000

Does that look like a about 5-6 years from peak to peak (Feb 08 to Sep 13)? Seems like Irvine beat OC and California's recovery.

What about how much Irvine dropped during this crash?

I know some people will use the extreme high in Feb 08 and the extreme low in Feb 12 but that doesn't account for housing stock, *seasonal* changes, etc... instead I'll use a 6-month rolling median (since someone doesn't like averages).

I compared Feb-08 to Jul-08 since that captures the highest 6 months of the peak (at least within the data available) to the lowest 6 month trough, which is Nov-11 to Apr-12.

Median 6-month High: $602,850
Median 6-month Low: $505,000
Drop: 16%

That to me, was a reflection of my own experience of house hunting in Irvine. Is that more or less accurate than the reality of most people? I guess it depends on the data your are looking at.

I can concede that some homes could have been discounted for more, but I don't think that represents the majority stock of Irvine homes as a whole.

But I could be wrong.
Click to expand...

For me, IHO presenting pure data here and coupled that with experiences. IHO is stress testing his strong beliefs in Irvine values and it?s abilities to hold values over a long period of time both in good and bad.

To me this is invaluable as a source of guide / suggestion for buy or not both in Irvine or outside of Irvine real estate . The individual have to decipher for himself.

From making past mistakes, ones will learn and make better decisions with the next. It takes a big person to say I could be wrong, because he will make better or best decisions when opportunities arise.
 
It?s his anecdotal observation.
Again, it?s okay for business to ?strategize? to buy equipment or hire people. But it?s not okay for an individual to hold back because there is uncertainty in the RE market?

How about I tell you the story of my neighbor a while back when they said someone broke on and changed their locks. To make the story short, the place got foreclosed because they were several or shall I say many months behind in paying their mortgage. Same story throughout the US not just my ex-neighbor. (Maybe they should of rented or waited to buy a house. I mean I bought a foreclosed unit close next to them rehabbed by the bank with missing garage fixture. Lol)

I?m not saying to wait for a foreclosure. But like don?t knock a person if they are cautious.
 
eyephone said:
To make the story short, the place got foreclosed because they were several or shall I say many months behind in paying their mortgage.
Click to expand...

Several months of missed payments and the property went into foreclosure?  This story seems to be missing some info.  I bought my property through a short sale and the previous owner hadn't paid the the mortgage in 4 years (but paid property tax and HOA)!  They finally did a short sale when they received the final foreclosure paperwork.
 
woodburyowner said:
eyephone said:
To make the story short, the place got foreclosed because they were several or shall I say many months behind in paying their mortgage.
Click to expand...

Several months of missed payments and the property went into foreclosure?  This story seems to be missing some info.  I bought my property through a short sale and the previous owner hadn't paid the the mortgage in 4 years (but paid property tax and HOA)!  They finally did a short sale when they received the final foreclosure paperwork.
Click to expand...

It might be missing info because I didn?t ask them to see their mortgage statement or correspondence from the bank. (I don?t want to get involved in their finances. It?s not my role.) Who knows how many months? But it got foreclosed.
 
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