Author Topic: HK and PRC  (Read 1494 times)

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Offline eyephone

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #30 on: August 13, 2019, 02:43:24 PM »
Minor nit, the Yellow Vest Protests in Europe haven't died out.  Coverage has but the movement rages on. 

China, Europe, illegal immigration shell games in the USA its just corruption and money.

Your right business like and want the cheap labor. But doesn’t say one word regarding immigration.

Illegal immigration is drivsn by two factors, desperation and ready employment exploitation of that desperation.  Orange jumpsuits of C-levels resolves it quickly.

Correct raiding a HQ for employment HR records will send a message.

Currently they are only rounding up the workers. How about the people who employ them?

Offline momopi

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #31 on: August 13, 2019, 03:28:26 PM »
conspiracy theory: the US has people on the ground, covertly leading or helping facilitate the protests in hk as a means to create unrest and forcing china's hand
who says nay?

It's not really necessary for foreign agents to instigate.  Incidents like this is the result of years of pressure, anxiety, and discontent boiling over.  Prior to Tienanmen Square protest in 1989 was decade long high inflation (1979-1989), reaching 10% in 1985 and by 1988-1989, 18%.  People in Hong Kong have long been squeezed in the unaffordable real estate market, with rent control lifted in 1988 and stories of landlord increasing rent by 30% in a year.  Young adults working their butts off in school and job have poor prospects of ever affording their own home, with end of HK SAR self-rule in 2047 and HK's dependency on Mainland China for everything from utilities to groceries, it's not a very bright future.  Quoting from a protester, they have to ask for the sky to get a small window.

My wife's side of family is Cantonese and has relatives in HK.  I told her cousins to consider relocating to Singapore or Taiwan.  In Singapore Lee Kuan Yew made it very clear that housing was for the people, and they have a fairly successful public housing policy.  In Taiwan we have over 1 million empty homes as young people move to cities and old folks die off in small towns.  If you're able to work remotely, there are many inexpensive housing avail.  The average price of a home in HK is $1.2 million USD.  In Taiwan you can get a 3 bed condo near Su-ao in Yilan for 10% of that -- $120,000.

As for Trump, he is an Europhile and pragmatic businessman.  Trump is not a white supremacist but will appeal to his white voter base.  He is not into guns or hunting (he oppose hunting) but will appeal to Pro-2A supporters.   He wants a "win" with China today while his staff who wanted a comprehensive long-term China engagement strategy get sent out the revolving door every x months.  Xi and the CCP Leadership on the other hand has to prioritize survival, as they have no exit career options.  Monarchs today who have lost political power can still fight to remain relevant, Xi doesn't have that luxury -- everything else is a nice to have, but expendable when necessary.  Even within CCP power transitions, people who worked for the previous boss and lived it up get sent to chopping block by new leadership.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 04:44:57 PM by momopi »

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Offline Kings

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #32 on: August 13, 2019, 03:46:55 PM »
conspiracy theory: the US has people on the ground, covertly leading or helping facilitate the protests in hk as a means to create unrest and forcing china's hand
who says nay?

It's not really necessary for foreign agents to instigate.  Incidents like this is the result of years of pressure, anxiety, and discontent boiling over.  Prior to Tienanmen Square protest in 1989 was decade long high inflation (1979-1989), reaching 10% in 1985 and by 1988-1989, 18%.  People in Hong Kong have long been squeezed in the unaffordable real estate market, with rent control lifted in 1988 and stories of landlord increasing rent by 30% in a year.  Young adults working their butts off in school and job have poor prospects of ever affording their own home, with end of HK SAR self-rule in 2047 and HK's dependency on Mainland China for everything from utilities to groceries, it's not a very bright future.  Quoting from a protester, they have to ask for the sky to get a small window.

My wife's side of family is Cantonese and has relatives in HK.  I told her cousins to consider relocating to Singapore or Taiwan.  In Singapore Lee Kuan Yew made it very clear that housing was for the people, and they have a fairly successful public housing policy.  In Taiwan we have over 1 million empty homes as young people move to cities and old folks die off in small towns.  If you're able to work remotely, there are many inexpensive housing avail.

As for Trump, he is an Europhile and pragmatic businessman.  Trump is not a white supremacist but will appeal to his white voter base.  He is not into guns or hunting (he oppose hunting) but will appeal to Pro-2A supporters.   He wants a "win" with China today while his staff who wanted a comprehensive long-term China engagement strategy get sent out the revolving door every x months.  Xi and the CCP Leadership on the other hand has to prioritize survival, as they have no exit career options.  Monarchs today who have lost political power can still fight to remain relevant, Xi doesn't have that luxury -- everything else is a nice to have, but expendable when necessary.

fair points. how do you see this ending?

Offline momopi

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #33 on: August 13, 2019, 03:59:32 PM »
fair points. how do you see this ending?

Realistically, I don't expect a good ending.  Even if Carrie Lam resigns and Beijing backs off, Hong Kong's problems cannot easily be resolved even with local democratically elect government due to influence from the tycoons.  As Taiwan's birth rate declines to 1.2 child/women, I think immigration of  young folks from Hong Kong to Taiwan is one possible intermediate solution.

Offline nosuchreality

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #34 on: August 13, 2019, 04:57:34 PM »
Minor nit, the Yellow Vest Protests in Europe haven't died out.  Coverage has but the movement rages on. 

China, Europe, illegal immigration shell games in the USA its just corruption and money.

Your right business like and want the cheap labor. But doesn’t say one word regarding immigration.

Illegal immigration is drivsn by two factors, desperation and ready employment exploitation of that desperation.  Orange jumpsuits of C-levels resolves it quickly.

Correct raiding a HQ for employment HR records will send a message.

Currently they are only rounding up the workers. How about the people who employ them?


They need to play connect the dots, tie the companies to the 3rd party providers that in turn place the ads in countries south of the border and then frankly  bust all the US Citizens involved under RICO.

Of course for real shitz and gigglez you make the fall guy one of mid-level ICE bureaucrats who allegedly help keep the employees in their place with well placed round ups of problem employees and the C-levels can take a cushy plea deal for ratting out the corrupt official.

Then the other c-levels can clean up and save face.

Wait a minute, wasn't I just bagging on China?


 

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #35 on: August 14, 2019, 09:08:31 AM »
The Chinese Communist Party has had a couple decades with “conventional” US presidents like Clinton, Bush, and Obama of engaging in unfair trading practices, getting called on it by the US, promising to change things, and then doing nothing. It will be interesting to see if Trump’s tariff will be able to hold the Chinese to their commitments.

Mexico has had a couple decades with “conventional” US presidents like Clinton, Bush, and Obama of promising to enforce Mexican immigration laws and then doing nothing. Since Trump’s tariff threats, Mexico is now enforcing its own laws and dramatically curtailed the number of migrants transiting their territory towards the US.

Hopefully, the tariffs will work on the Chinese the same way they did on the Mexicans.

Wow. Another Latino hater.
I guess Qwerty knows who’s his friends are on TI. (or shall I say Amigos)  ;)

how is he a "latino hater"?

Mexico has nothing to do with the Chinese tarriffs. (It’s the classic tactic bringing Mexico in the conversation which is a stretch)

To be fair, Happiness was addressing the concept of the effectiveness of *tariffs*.

While I find it difficult to compare Mexico to China in this regard, I am also unsure how this demonstrates any "hate" by Happiness.

It’s a combination of his posts. But do you see what he’s doing. It’s like a dual post. Talks about China and then out of no where talk about Mexico. Saying this and that about Mexico. How does he know they haven’t enforced their border?


Sorry, I guess because I don't have any preconceptions with the poster, so I don't really see that. We were talking about methods to deal with issues with China, one of which is unfair trade (which also allows them to exploit their workers). Happiness contends that because threats of tariffs on Mexico has made them deal with immigration issues, that tariffs will help with the China issues.

I agree with you on how does Happiness know that it did help with the immigration issues (from what I've read, there were already policies negotiated prior to the threat of tariffs). Trump saying "it worked" doesn't count for me either.

But I don't see how that is "hate" on "Latinos", and I would hope we would all be more careful here with accusations of racism. As I said before, let's just try to discuss the topic/opinions, rather than make assumptions about the poster.

Quote
Regarding tarriffs who’s paying for it? Trump says China
But in actuality it’s the American consumers

Again, I agree. However, the theory is that American consumers will not want to continue paying more for China-originated goods due to the higher cost and by purchasing more either domestically or from other countries, that will put pressure on China to change their ways.

I'm just not sure if that's enough... even at 100% tariffs, from what I understand, it could still be cheaper and higher quality than other avenues.

For example, you make a gadget in China, it cost $1 and is very high quality and you can charge $15 for it. The same gadget, if made in California would cost $5 and may not be as good. If the cost for the gadget in China doubled or tripled and went to $2 or even $3... wouldn't you still buy it from China?

And American consumers seem to be willing to accept more expensive stuff anyways... iPhones cost more than $1000 and no one is blinking.

I really think change has to come from within China... and thanks to the Internet and global connectivity, hopefully that will happen... just not sure if it will in our lifetime.
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Offline eyephone

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #36 on: August 14, 2019, 09:38:52 AM »
And why do you always try (and fail) to drag QWERTY into your accusations?

I’ll say what I’ll say. Do you think it’s okay to pick on Mexicans? Maybe I should pick on Philippines like where your family is from.

So let’s talk about Coffee Bean. Guess who just bought Cofeee Bean.

Yes,  but I do know the guys at Jolli bee who did, and yes I do love a good Pilipino  joke...if you know one.

You will defiantly not see me at a Coffee bean. Not at all. Better yet Jollybea. Not my type of chicken.

Offline morekaos

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #37 on: August 14, 2019, 09:47:30 AM »
Not aiming their marketing at you.  Flips love that place.  Only major burger franchise that beats McDonalds in their own country.  How many burger joints do you know with white rice on the sides menu?  They don't need you as a customer, they have lots.

Offline eyephone

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #38 on: August 14, 2019, 10:02:32 AM »
Not aiming their marketing at you.  Flips love that place.  Only major burger franchise that beats McDonalds in their own country.  How many burger joints do you know with white rice on the sides menu?  They don't need you as a customer, they have lots.

I disagree. The reason why they came to the US. Is to get a percentage of the fast food sector. In effect they came here for other people to buy their food. Which means to market to other people than from the Philippines. Trust me they are not big time in the US like you say they are. (Thanks to you this will be the new topic for me to talk about!)
« Last Edit: August 14, 2019, 10:11:06 AM by eyephone »

Offline morekaos

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #39 on: August 14, 2019, 10:11:25 AM »
They have been here for years.  I was at the opening of their first store in Daly City...large Filipino population, lines around the block.  To this day it outperforms most all other fast food joints there.  Carson also has seen significant success.  The purchase of Coffee Bean offered an in place franchise that they could build a better US presence on.  They still focus mainly on heavy Filipino populated areas but now have a national presence they can make some inroads with. Its a long ball strategy.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #40 on: August 14, 2019, 10:15:12 AM »
@eyephone:

To clarify, I think morekaos meant that Jollibee is marketing to Filipinos in the US because in the Phillippines, Jollibee is more popular than McDonalds.

Obviously, you want to market to everyone in the US, but you can start with people who are familiar with your brand/food. Have you ever tried Luna Grill? Why are there so many in Irvine? Or Panini Kabob Grill?
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Offline eyephone

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #41 on: August 14, 2019, 10:20:04 AM »
Not aiming their marketing at you.  Flips love that place.  Only major burger franchise that beats McDonalds in their own country.  How many burger joints do you know with white rice on the sides menu?  They don't need you as a customer, they have lots.

I disagree. The reason why they came to the US. Is to get a percentage of the fast food sector. In effect they came here for other people to buy their food. Which means to market to other people than from the Philippines. Trust me they are not big time in the US like you say they are. (Thanks to you this will be the new topic for me to talk about!)

Source:Euro monitor, FT Article: Can Jollibee take a bite out of the global fast-food market?

Global fast food companies by sales (in billion dollars)
Using 2017 sales data:
McDonalds 86.02
Yum Brands (kfc, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell) 35.33
Restaurant Brands International (Burger King) 30.88
Doctor’s Associates (subway) 18.82
Dunkin Brands Group 11.21
Jollibee Foods 2.91

Website source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1cdfd818-a9ca-11e8-89a1-e5de165fa619

Note: numbers might change since 2017 but just using public sales info from 2017 for discussion purposes

« Last Edit: August 14, 2019, 10:52:00 AM by eyephone »

Offline momopi

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #42 on: August 14, 2019, 10:38:38 AM »
I'm just not sure if that's enough... even at 100% tariffs, from what I understand, it could still be cheaper and higher quality than other avenues.
For example, you make a gadget in China, it cost $1 and is very high quality and you can charge $15 for it. The same gadget, if made in California would cost $5 and may not be as good. If the cost for the gadget in China doubled or tripled and went to $2 or even $3... wouldn't you still buy it from China?

Back in the 1990s when Compaq sourced external computer speakers from China, they told their supplier that they expect the price to be cut by 3% every quarter.  If the supplier is unable meet this condition, there are many others who would be happy to take the order.  The Chinese manufacturer was left to find ways to cut costs or die.  This is partially why after 20 years we still find a lot of low priced Made in China products at Walmart.  However, with rising wages in China it's getting harder and harder to compete against lower labor cost countries like Burma and Vietnam.

Also, there is no free lunch -- cost savings have to come from somewhere, and thus a lot of products are not built to quality or durability.  Sadly this plays into the planned obsolescence business model in America where products are made to be disposable and replaced cheaply.

There are some items built to quality in China, but they're not that cheap.  Quality made in USA straight blade buck knives will cost you $50 and up, versus acceptable quality (as tested by Russian customer hammering it against a wood log on Youtube) knife of similar size and function from China will cost you $25.  The $5 or $10 Made in China knife at Harbor freight wouldn't last 10 seconds when subjected to same test by hammer wielding Russian dude.  But retailers like Harbor freight would rather sell the $5 or $10 product that will break.

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Offline morekaos

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #43 on: August 14, 2019, 10:52:58 AM »
I got off the phone this morning with one of my clients in China.  She is convinced the government will try to infiltrate the protesters with their own people the try to incite the mass which will give the government the excuse to tamp down the protest.  She says its an effective way to lay off the blame enough to justify action. She also thinks the protesters are smart enough to know this and will try to resist any overt actions.  how this turns put is still very much in the air but the difference between Tien Amen and now is the internet, social media and the inability of the government to control all the information...we shall see, this concerns me quite a bit more then today's buzz words (inverted yield curve)

Offline eyephone

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Re: HK and PRC
« Reply #44 on: August 14, 2019, 10:58:56 AM »
Not aiming their marketing at you.  Flips love that place.  Only major burger franchise that beats McDonalds in their own country.  How many burger joints do you know with white rice on the sides menu?  They don't need you as a customer, they have lots.

I disagree. The reason why they came to the US. Is to get a percentage of the fast food sector. In effect they came here for other people to buy their food. Which means to market to other people than from the Philippines. Trust me they are not big time in the US like you say they are. (Thanks to you this will be the new topic for me to talk about!)

Source:Euro monitor, FT Article: Can Jollibee take a bite out of the global fast-food market?

Global fast food companies by sales (in billion dollars)
Using 2017 sales data:
McDonalds 86.02
Yum Brands (kfc, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell) 35.33
Restaurant Brands International (Burger King) 30.88
Doctor’s Associates (subway) 18.82
Dunkin Brands Group 11.21
Jollibee Foods 2.91

Website source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1cdfd818-a9ca-11e8-89a1-e5de165fa619

Note: numbers might change since 2017 but just using public sales info from 2017 for discussion purposes

Wait till I post the market share result in the US burger market in 2017. Hint zilch
(I know they sell chicken and burgers, but at least like get 1%)

 

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