EV/Plug-in/Other vehicles

[OCtoSV]

I pick up my new Model 3 Performance this Sunday (great Father’s Day event) - super car performance for $64K. I think Tesla has locked up the supply chain so good luck to Porsche getting allocations of silicon devices and battery materials with their paltry volumes. It might be a lot longer than Oct, and like Jaguar I can see them losing so much trying to compete with lesser software/silicon/battery technology those cars will be like VW Phaetons in a few years.

The only ICE car that will sustain long term value is Ferrari as they are sought out exactly for their sound. People buy 911s because they’re wicked fast, handle like a dream and are extremely high quality, but they’re not as exclusive as F and will be a casualty of the EV transition - not enough volume. The Japanese will survive and may end up the big winners after Tesla.

I've made money off selling all of my GT3 and GT3RS Porsche.  One appreciated $80k more than I paid for it in 2013 when I sold it in 2018.  The only 2 Ferrari cars that I would even consider buying is the Speciale or the Scuderia.

GT cars and older aircooled 911s have done very well in the recent speculative bubble, as have many American muscle cars - I saw an old guy tearing up the nieghborhood in a sick 74 Z28, very rare, the other day that is worth ungodly $$. There is a guy at my gym whose daily driver is a 79 930 that I always think should be in a garage not getting exposed to door dings in the parking lot. But moving forward 10-15 years I think only Ferrari will be able to sustain a profitable ICE + EV business. I would be a long term buyer of Ferrari stock.

[marmott]

I think Tesla has locked up the supply chain so good luck to Porsche getting allocations of silicon devices and battery materials with their paltry volumes. It might be a lot longer than Oct, and like Jaguar I can see them losing so much trying to compete with lesser software/silicon/battery technology those cars will be like VW Phaetons in a few years.

Tesla can do no wrong with you  I would bet that the VW group is in a much better situation than Tesla when it comes to supply chain just by their sheer size and buying power.

But I agree any "today" EV will be victim of the fast innovation we are seeing in the sector and won't be that attractive in a few years. Tesla models with 300 miles range and average hardware are not immune.

[irvinehomeowner]

The big domestics can compete with Tesla.

Ford has already shown it can ramp up with the Lightning vs Rivian and the still upcoming CyberTruck. Chevy has shown they can compete price-wise without Fed incentives by cutting prices drastically on the Bolts.

The next few years will be very interesting.

As much as I like our Model Y, I really like the other EVs out there... and really messed up by waiting for the CyberTruck instead of reserving a Lightning or Rivian RT1. I'm looking at the Rivian R1S because we probably need the larger SUV format than a truck.

Unicorns and rainbows can come true.

[OCtoSV]

I think Tesla has locked up the supply chain so good luck to Porsche getting allocations of silicon devices and battery materials with their paltry volumes. It might be a lot longer than Oct, and like Jaguar I can see them losing so much trying to compete with lesser software/silicon/battery technology those cars will be like VW Phaetons in a few years.

Tesla can do no wrong with you  I would bet that the VW group is in a much better situation than Tesla when it comes to supply chain just by their sheer size and buying power.

But I agree any "today" EV will be victim of the fast innovation we are seeing in the sector and won't be that attractive in a few years. Tesla models with 300 miles range and average hardware are not immune.

How? Tesla commands 70% of the US electric vehicle market and they have an endless supply of free capital to pay their way to the top allocation slot for every material and semiconductor provider. Ev components are not what VW is buying in massive volume for entry level Jettas and Golfs. When you drill into numbers like that, and juxtapose them with Tesla's insane OM vs the red ink everyone else is bleeding in their EV lineups - where does everyone else magically catch up in cost structure let alone technology, where they're all years behind Tesla in software and battery technology? Perhaps the biggest hurdle for everyone else is duplicating the Supercharger network - I can literally autpoilot my way anywhere in CA and never have range anxiety. The other chargin networks are poorly maintained, sparsely available and really expensive.

If you understood EV technology and manufacturing finance you would know it's game over for the domestics and the legacy luxury brands.

[OCtoSV]

I think Tesla has locked up the supply chain so good luck to Porsche getting allocations of silicon devices and battery materials with their paltry volumes. It might be a lot longer than Oct, and like Jaguar I can see them losing so much trying to compete with lesser software/silicon/battery technology those cars will be like VW Phaetons in a few years.

Tesla can do no wrong with you  I would bet that the VW group is in a much better situation than Tesla when it comes to supply chain just by their sheer size and buying power.

But I agree any "today" EV will be victim of the fast innovation we are seeing in the sector and won't be that attractive in a few years. Tesla models with 300 miles range and average hardware are not immune.

How? Tesla commands 70% of the US electric vehicle market and they have an endless supply of free capital to pay their way to the top allocation slot for every material and semiconductor provider. Ev components are not what VW is buying in massive volume for entry level Jettas and Golfs. When you drill into numbers like that, and juxtapose them with Tesla's insane OM vs the red ink everyone else is bleeding in their EV lineups - where does everyone else magically catch up in cost structure let alone technology, where they're all years behind Tesla in software and battery technology? Perhaps the biggest hurdle for everyone else is duplicating the Supercharger network - I can literally autpoilot my way anywhere in CA and never have range anxiety. The other chargin networks are poorly maintained, sparsely available and really expensive.

If you understood EV technology and manufacturing finance you would know it's game over for the domestics and the legacy luxury brands.

to add some specificity, Tesla has a much larger portion of the vehicle's functionality designed from scratch to be software controlled, a linchpin of their OTA capability.

[qwerty]

I think Tesla has locked up the supply chain so good luck to Porsche getting allocations of silicon devices and battery materials with their paltry volumes. It might be a lot longer than Oct, and like Jaguar I can see them losing so much trying to compete with lesser software/silicon/battery technology those cars will be like VW Phaetons in a few years.

Tesla can do no wrong with you  I would bet that the VW group is in a much better situation than Tesla when it comes to supply chain just by their sheer size and buying power.

But I agree any "today" EV will be victim of the fast innovation we are seeing in the sector and won't be that attractive in a few years. Tesla models with 300 miles range and average hardware are not immune.

How? Tesla commands 70% of the US electric vehicle market and they have an endless supply of free capital to pay their way to the top allocation slot for every material and semiconductor provider. Ev components are not what VW is buying in massive volume for entry level Jettas and Golfs. When you drill into numbers like that, and juxtapose them with Tesla's insane OM vs the red ink everyone else is bleeding in their EV lineups - where does everyone else magically catch up in cost structure let alone technology, where they're all years behind Tesla in software and battery technology? Perhaps the biggest hurdle for everyone else is duplicating the Supercharger network - I can literally autpoilot my way anywhere in CA and never have range anxiety. The other chargin networks are poorly maintained, sparsely available and really expensive.

If you understood EV technology and manufacturing finance you would know it's game over for the domestics and the legacy luxury brands.

Elon - is that you???

:-)

[irvinehomeowner]

I'll agree with OCtoSV that quite a bit of Tesla tech is leaps and bounds in regards to technology and battery... but EVs for the masses don't necessarily need to be cutting edge.

Sort of like iPhone vs Android... iPhone was established as the leader but then Android had the ability because of so many vendors to cover all levels from high end to budget.. which is what is going to happen with EVs.

You don't always need the best software or battery range... but just good enough and cheap enough. I'll use Ford again as an example... they should be producing more trucks than Rivian soon because they can use many of the same parts in the F-150, that's an advantage of scale that Rivian can't match... or Tesla if they ever come out with the CT.

Another tech example is most of these other EVs can just implement a simple entertainment/nav system and rely on CarPlay/AndroidAuto to do the rest (which many Tesla owners wish they had available in their cars). So there is some benefit to having an open manufacturing channel.

So while iPhone beats any single phone brand/model in sales, Android as a whole sells many more units than iPhone... which is eventually what will happen with EVs.

[zovall]

The big domestics can compete with Tesla.

Ford has already shown it can ramp up with the Lightning vs Rivian and the still upcoming CyberTruck. Chevy has shown they can compete price-wise without Fed incentives by cutting prices drastically on the Bolts.

The next few years will be very interesting.

I sure hope they can compete and produce in mass volume. It's nice to finally see some more non-compliance vehicles from all the legacy manufacturers.

[OCtoSV]

The big domestics can compete with Tesla.

Ford has already shown it can ramp up with the Lightning vs Rivian and the still upcoming CyberTruck. Chevy has shown they can compete price-wise without Fed incentives by cutting prices drastically on the Bolts.

The next few years will be very interesting.

I sure hope they can compete and produce in mass volume. It's nice to finally see some more non-compliance vehicles from all the legacy manufacturers.

from what I read VW is going big for China and Europe EV volume while Elon ramps the Berlin Gigafactory to 500K vehicles/year.

Speaking of which I just took delivery of my new M3 Perf, and wow. Such a beautiful vehicle with sick rims and handles like a cheetah on those 20" P0s. I'm in love. No one else can produce a profitable EV that even sniffs it for $64K.

[marmott]

No one else can produce a profitable EV that even sniffs it for $64K.

Is it profitable or is it not? The Tesla propaganda is getting a little hard to read... 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-says-teslas-new-car-factories-losing-billions-dollars-2022-06-22/

[CalBears96]

No one else can produce a profitable EV that even sniffs it for $64K.

Is it profitable or is it not? The Tesla propaganda is getting a little hard to read... 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-says-teslas-new-car-factories-losing-billions-dollars-2022-06-22/

To be fair, the Berlin and Austin factories are losing money because they're not churning out enough EVs due to supply chain issues.

[OCtoSV]

No one else can produce a profitable EV that even sniffs it for $64K.

Is it profitable or is it not? The Tesla propaganda is getting a little hard to read... 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/musk-says-teslas-new-car-factories-losing-billions-dollars-2022-06-22/

In April they delivered >2X the margin of the legacy domestics. Only Toyota comes close. Did you know they have exceeded the Toyota/GM output when the Fremont factory was the NUMMI jv? And doing that while having to bus workers in from Stockton.

VW has some hard choices to make around Porsche or they risk financial ruin with their EV strategy. There is no way they will have the volume to sustain a competitive high end EV lineup. The 911 was ubiquitous when I moved here in the 2000s but now you only see the occasional GT or lovingly cared for vintage air cooled 911 around - all sales consumed by Tesla. I NEVER see S class or 7 series on the road. Even Macans and Cayennes are much sparser after the Model Y was introduced. Lane Rovers however are quite popular up here.

[OCtoSV]

Drawing 12.1 kw currently charging the Tesla with house AC at 74 - 2.6 from solar with the balance from PW. Feels so good to be off the grid and the gas station.

[USCTrojanCPA]

I'm looking forward to the EV Macan coming out.  The Taycan is just a stop gap (I'll probably pick up a Sport Turismo Taycan next year when there are more allocations) until the EV Macan starts selling in 2025.

[AW]

Drawing 12.1 kw currently charging the Tesla with house AC at 74 - 2.6 from solar with the balance from PW. Feels so good to be off the grid and the gas station.

One regret was not getting the power wall back then, old electric rates didn’t seem necessary, and thought PW would become more abundant, cheaper (or more efficient).  But not complaining since we’re still spending way less than without solar overall.