Artificial Intelligence

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
I've seen kenkoko mention this a few times and it's actually a topic I wanted to talk more in depth about it.

As much as AI has advanced I still think it's a long way off before it replaces humans in large numbers.

I think there is a huge amount of jobs where technology is too expensive to replace manual labor. And then there are things to complicated or requires skilled human interaction that an AI can't replace.

For example, would you trust flying in a plane without a human pilot? Probably not in the next 25 years.

But I could be wrong, I just think there will always be a human factor that technology can't replace.
 
AI / Automation is already here. This is hard for people to grasp because the progression is not linear. It's more like a curve and it will get progressively worse.

Pilots flying an airplane is not the best example to use because it's a very small % of job in the overall landscape. And it is a job that requires a lot of skills. But you do know that AI can already fly unmanned drone airplanes right?

The incoming disruption of AI and automation is that they are coming for the most common jobs. About 50% of total US jobs are in these 5 categories. 1)retail and sales, 2) admin and clerical, 3) food service and food prep, 4) truck driving and transportation, 5) manufacturing.
These are jobs filled by the most common American workers who has a high school degree. (Only 32 % of American has a college degree)

These are the most vulnerable people to be replaced by AI/Automation because it is repetitive manual or repetitive cognitive work. And these workers are the least adaptable kind in our labor force. The average retail sales clerk is a 39-year-old woman with a high school degree. 94% truck drivers are male, average age 49 with a high school diploma. The common argument is that the advancement of AI/Automation will create other opportunities. That?s true on the surface. But if you really think about it, how is it that these truckers or middle age women with high school education going to gain access to these new opportunities? Bare in mind too that these new opportunities will be concentrated in the coastal areas in high population expensive areas.

78% of American are living paycheck to paycheck, 58% cannot afford an unexpected 500 dollar bill. Yet, we expect these people to move from Flint to Seattle and become software engineers??

Another factor I don?t even hear people talk about is the ratio of jobs destroyed by adaptation of AI/Automation to the jobs created by advancement in AI/Automation. It is definitely not 1 to 1. It?s more like 10 to 1 or even 100 to 1.

Here is a video of Al Jazeera on AI from 2018. It?s pretty telling. And it?s already more than a year old so the tech we have today is already more superior to the ones in the video. But watch it nonetheless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnBAdnNIIXk
 
I think there is a scale of cost that you may not be considering.

Also, adoption is slow. We've had battery technology for years yet it's taking forever for EVs to become mainstream.

There may be some minimization of safety concerns, just like the plane/pilot example, trucking routes may still take a while before they remove human drivers. Sure, a drone can be flown by AI, but it's different story when there are live human passengers involved.

I've heard this AI argument for years... and the best result so far? Siri and Shazam. :)
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I think there is a scale of cost that you may not be considering.
Also, adoption is slow.

Don't take my word for it. But do pay attention to MIT, Bain, and McKinsey. They have done the best research on this and come to similar forecasts.
25-30% job displacement by 2030.

The Obama administration,right before they went out, issued an report on automation. It says 79% of jobs, currently averaging less than $20/hr, are at risk to be automated.

I don't know what line of work you're in, so your exposure to AI/Automation might be different than me and other people. At my work about 30% of back office workers has already been replaced by software. I just returned from San Jose training for our new version of AI assisted software, and it's already 3-5 times more efficient than its first version we bought in 2017. It's actually very scary. My co-worker who went with me to the training (his first time and my 2nd) was very confident that no computer AI can replace him prior to the training. He came away very afraid that he will not have a job in 10 years.
 
Truck drivers...  Yea they'll get replaced, the robot will drive 24x7 only stopping to fuel or charge.

It makes people.comfortable thinking the 'low' skill jobs will be replaced.

Yet, two years ago, the robots doing better surgury. https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human...t-surgeon-bests-human-surgeons-in-world-first

Don't worry, plenty of surgery assistant jobs coming.  😂

I know, I know, that's just stutching not 'real' medicine.

Your kid will still be able to do research..oopshttps://scipol.duke.edu/content/ibms-watson-makes-its-first-discovery-neuroscience.
 
I also think technology lag will help us adjust.

With each new age, mankind figures out a way to make it work. And again, there will still be jobs/tasks that AI can't do or is too expensive to do... sort of like the "undocumented workers" sub-economy in SoCal.

Did anyone watch Logan? That was a near-future movie where the shipping trucks were automated and I found that interesting but there was a scene where there was an accident with the AI truck and they had to protect their horses because the AI trucks wouldn't avoid hitting them. This interaction between humans and AI is why this will not be a rapid replacement and give society the ability to adapt.

I think it was eyephone who brought up the example of McDonald's and Costco kiosks but there are still people working at those places. What technoglogy did in that case was not really replace the entire workforce, but augmented it to be more efficient. Could they eventually replace them? Sure, but it will be a long time before they can get put in an affordable automation system that will prepare food and serve it.
 
For those in the "let's pay attention to AI / Automation" camp, the biggest frustration has to be that people arguing against it are basing their conclusion on their feelings, instincts, and what they see around their surroundings. Instead of facts, data, research, and expert opinions.

I feel this is also an age/generation thing. AI/Automation is just much harder for older people to grasp. It's like watching my parents (in their early 70s) struggling to use their Ipad. Also reminds me of watching our senator question Mark Zuckerberg. It's cute, funny, and a bit sad.
 
Not sure who is *not* in the Ai camp.

We all know it's here and will continue to grow but I don't think it will ruin the economy.

It's suppose to help society not hurt it.

And it's not like software/technology is free. There will always be a cost that needs to be considered.

To me, it will be a very long time before all manual and mental labor will be replaced.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Not sure who is *not* in the Ai camp.

We all know it's here and will continue to grow but I don't think it will ruin the economy.

It's suppose to help society not hurt it.

And it's not like software/technology is free. There will always be a cost that needs to be considered.

To me, it will be a very long time before all manual and mental labor will be replaced.

I've had a lot of these AI/Automation conversations with people. There are a lot of people not in the AI camp. Majority of them are middle aged or older.  I actually understand why they would feel this way but we do need more people to wake up if we want to curb the incoming economic disruptions. Especially policy makers but that's another discussion. And of course there are varying degrees of them. From you have posted, I would say you are aware of the potential but underscores the damage AI could do to our economy. I say that not just because I've been personally exposed to the most current AI tech at my work. I say that because the leading research (by MIT, Bain, Mckinsey, and even Obama Administration) says so.

May I ask what data, research, or expert opinions you are using to form your conclusion? specifically on AI will not ruin the economy. I ask because all the leading research and forecasts I saw say otherwise.

To the points you are raising specifically

1) It's supposed to help society not hurt it.

AI is definitely pushing us forward, but the byproduct is massive job displacements. We need to manage the transition of large percentage of population  exiting the work force (not by choice)

2) Software/technology is not free. There will always be a cost that needs to be considered.

You are correct that there's a cost that needs to be considered. But that's at the front end. The high cost will prevent research from being done. We are already past that.  If anything, now the cost invested would actually speed up the implementation of the technology because investors want to capture returns. (such as pushing through legal regulations etc)
Take self driving robot trucks for example. The cost savings for self driving robot trucks is estimated to be 160-180 billion dollars per year. This huge financial windfall for the eventual winning technology is driving the research.  The cost is already factored in. The technology is 98% ready.This is still extremely profitable which is why you see all the major players/hedge funds continue to fund these research and development.

3)To me, it will be a very long time before all manual and mental labor will be replaced.

Yes, it will never be 100% or close to it. But, that's not the issue. If you look at the research, experts agree that 10% -15% job displacement by 2030 will be enough to cause a recession. And we are looking at 25% - 30% job displacement by 2030.

Even if you do not want to follow the research, do pay attention to what tech leaders are saying. Zuckerberg, Musk, Richard Branson, and many others have all recently discussed this and even supported Universal Basic Income as a solution.

Ray Dalio even went a step further by suggesting a Revolution is coming and we need to re-engineer the economic system and redistribute wealth.
 
You just proved my point.

The things you mentioned at the end of your post is why I don't think AI will have the impact you predict.

The leaders who know the effects will mitigate them. I guess I am an optimist.
 
I?m a way it?s pointless to talk about AI. Because they don?t understand or don?t want to understand.
 
eyephone said:
I?m a way it?s pointless to talk about AI. Because they don?t understand or don?t want to understand.

That?s sadly the truth. Cognitive dissonance is too hard for some people to overcome. People get upset if pressed on why they have objectively illogical behaviors. It cuts to the core of how they view the world and their place within it.
Honestly looking at something like automation makes people feel vulnerable, especially boomers, who grew up in a society that was affluent, and took it for granted that things would stay that way, if not improve over time. Automation, in contrast, is going to tip the economic logic they?ve always known and believed in on its head.

GDP no longer reflects how many Americans are doing.
 
People need to watch more Andrew Yang on YT...he was just on Ben Shapiro's show and also David Pakman's show.

I believe he has a CNN forum coming up.
 
Irvinecommuter said:
People need to watch more Andrew Yang on YT...he was just on Ben Shapiro's show and also David Pakman's show.

I believe he has a CNN forum coming up.

Definitely! I was honestly worried about Yang going on Shapiro's show but it was great. One of the best political conversations I have ever seen.

Almost everyone at my work has become Yang supporters now. We have been talking among ourselves for the last couple of years and often wondered how nobody (politicians) wants to talk about this runaway train that's going to fundamentally change how we live.


 
It's coming

This year, Walmart (WMT) plans an aggressive expansion of technology that will automate a range of low-level tasks within its fleet of U.S. stores, freeing up its associates to do more specialized work.

The plan is to roll out 1,500 new autonomous floor cleaners, called the "Auto-C," 300 additional shelf scanners dubbed the "Auto-S.? In addition, 1,200 more FAST Unloaders will automatically scan and sort items from trucks, and 900 more pickup towers are expected to retrieve customers? online orders.

It means that shoppers might soon encounter robots gliding up and down the retailer?s aisles, scanning for inventory, maneuvering around shelves, and scrubbing the store's expansive floor space.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/walmart-adds-robots-to-us-store-fleet-040100670.html
 
Irvinecommuter said:
It's coming

This year, Walmart (WMT) plans an aggressive expansion of technology that will automate a range of low-level tasks within its fleet of U.S. stores, freeing up its associates to do more specialized work.

The plan is to roll out 1,500 new autonomous floor cleaners, called the "Auto-C," 300 additional shelf scanners dubbed the "Auto-S.? In addition, 1,200 more FAST Unloaders will automatically scan and sort items from trucks, and 900 more pickup towers are expected to retrieve customers? online orders.

It means that shoppers might soon encounter robots gliding up and down the retailer?s aisles, scanning for inventory, maneuvering around shelves, and scrubbing the store's expansive floor space.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/walmart-adds-robots-to-us-store-fleet-040100670.html

Coming for more than blue collar jobs too.

An AI system defeated elite Chinese doctors in a two-round brain tumor diagnosis competition on both speed and accuracy.
https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1116001902381215746


Average radiologist salary in the US is over 300k per year.
 
Kenkoko said:
Irvinecommuter said:
It's coming

This year, Walmart (WMT) plans an aggressive expansion of technology that will automate a range of low-level tasks within its fleet of U.S. stores, freeing up its associates to do more specialized work.

The plan is to roll out 1,500 new autonomous floor cleaners, called the "Auto-C," 300 additional shelf scanners dubbed the "Auto-S.? In addition, 1,200 more FAST Unloaders will automatically scan and sort items from trucks, and 900 more pickup towers are expected to retrieve customers? online orders.

It means that shoppers might soon encounter robots gliding up and down the retailer?s aisles, scanning for inventory, maneuvering around shelves, and scrubbing the store's expansive floor space.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/walmart-adds-robots-to-us-store-fleet-040100670.html

Coming for more than blue collar jobs too.

An AI system defeated elite Chinese doctors in a two-round brain tumor diagnosis competition on both speed and accuracy.
https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1116001902381215746


Average radiologist salary in the US is over 300k per year.

Even if human radiologists can do better...AI still will win just on availability and costs.  Every clinic in the world can use the AI and get an immediate conclusion....no need to wait for the radiologist.

Heck, it can be build into the imaging system where the AI just reads the film in seconds and spits out a report like those eye examination machines.
 
Irvinecommuter said:
Even if human radiologists can do better...AI still will win just on availability and costs.  Every clinic in the world can use the AI and get an immediate conclusion....no need to wait for the radiologist.

How will AI be available and less costly in every clinic in the world? Won't there be a need for some interface for the AI with the imaging equipment? Or do you send the images to some central cloud service? Is the AI free? Also, if this is done through the internet, "every" clinic may not have the type of connectivity necessary.

I may not be as close to AI technology that kenkoko is but I do know about infrastructure and software costs.
 
I'm not that familiar with this AI thing, but I would guess the advantage of using AI would be it can work over night time, running 24 hours a day without resting like us humans need.

I personally see a long period of time for it to take over certain job fields, but there would have to be the factory owners making killings like those Chinese manufacture owners were.

Are those AI machines, parts, programs, softwares, etc. going to be made in China again? More Vietnam or Indonesia this time?

Surely, Trump wouldn't outsource those, would he?
 
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