irvinehomeowner said:
Not sure who is *not* in the Ai camp.
We all know it's here and will continue to grow but I don't think it will ruin the economy.
It's suppose to help society not hurt it.
And it's not like software/technology is free. There will always be a cost that needs to be considered.
To me, it will be a very long time before all manual and mental labor will be replaced.
I've had a lot of these AI/Automation conversations with people. There are a lot of people not in the AI camp. Majority of them are middle aged or older. I actually understand why they would feel this way but we do need more people to wake up if we want to curb the incoming economic disruptions. Especially policy makers but that's another discussion. And of course there are varying degrees of them. From you have posted, I would say you are aware of the potential but underscores the damage AI could do to our economy. I say that not just because I've been personally exposed to the most current AI tech at my work. I say that because the leading research (by MIT, Bain, Mckinsey, and even Obama Administration) says so.
May I ask what data, research, or expert opinions you are using to form your conclusion? specifically on AI will not ruin the economy. I ask because all the leading research and forecasts I saw say otherwise.
To the points you are raising specifically
1) It's supposed to help society not hurt it.
AI is definitely pushing us forward, but the byproduct is massive job displacements. We need to manage the transition of large percentage of population exiting the work force (not by choice)
2) Software/technology is not free. There will always be a cost that needs to be considered.
You are correct that there's a cost that needs to be considered. But that's at the front end. The high cost will prevent research from being done. We are already past that. If anything, now the cost invested would actually speed up the implementation of the technology because investors want to capture returns. (such as pushing through legal regulations etc)
Take self driving robot trucks for example. The cost savings for self driving robot trucks is estimated to be 160-180 billion dollars per year. This huge financial windfall for the eventual winning technology is driving the research. The cost is already factored in. The technology is 98% ready.This is still extremely profitable which is why you see all the major players/hedge funds continue to fund these research and development.
3)To me, it will be a very long time before all manual and mental labor will be replaced.
Yes, it will never be 100% or close to it. But, that's not the issue. If you look at the research, experts agree that 10% -15% job displacement by 2030 will be enough to cause a recession. And we are looking at 25% - 30% job displacement by 2030.
Even if you do not want to follow the research, do pay attention to what tech leaders are saying. Zuckerberg, Musk, Richard Branson, and many others have all recently discussed this and even supported Universal Basic Income as a solution.
Ray Dalio even went a step further by suggesting a Revolution is coming and we need to re-engineer the economic system and redistribute wealth.