Author Topic: Examples of significant savings?  (Read 5570 times)

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Online zubs

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2019, 03:54:47 PM »
I just noticed the graph above is for condos.
Here is redfins graph for houses





So it looks like a nice drop there for houses but not condos.

Yes, looks like a nice drop but am I wrong or does it show the prices going back up? A slowdown is supposed to continue to be slow right?

The funny thing about that graph is the blue line shows sellers are holding on to their wishing price as closed prices are much lower.  This is only the beginning of the recession.  We got 4 more years of this....perhaps flat to lower.


People with property (old people) will hope for a soft landing.  Renters may want a hard landing...but then they also may lose their job.

Offline Mety

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2019, 03:59:53 PM »
Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.


Offline mads

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #17 on: March 29, 2019, 04:12:11 PM »
But the reason or argument people make is that SFR will endure better than condos and attached ones especially when there is slowdown/price reduction. The total opposite is happening. Does that not look unusual or suspicious to anyone? Or is it just that argument is fake news.
The # of Buyers who prefer SFRs is greater, and the # of SFRs used as primary residences is most likely higher too. Problem as pointed above is the SFR Irvine? hype train sometimes leads to unrealistic list prices and supply> demand.
The # of people who can afford cheaper older SFRs/condos is higher, and will include more investors. These will also be the first ones to be sold off in a difficult market, either by investor owners, when they don’t break even anymore/want to liquidate or simply because these are considered less desirable? people who bought these as primary residences may also be less financially resilient or are viewed as such in a recession? i live in a condo and am happy, so no offense to anyone here.
Read somewhere that another reason why homebuilders have been mostly into higher end homes (apart from higher margins) was because post-recession, only the well-off could afford to buy homes anymore.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2019, 04:21:17 PM by mads »

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #18 on: March 29, 2019, 04:27:27 PM »
Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

That toll road is like getting congested. (That’s what I hear and I have driven it) They should have built more lanes or something.

Offline Mety

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #19 on: March 29, 2019, 04:32:03 PM »
Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

That toll road is like getting congested. (That’s what I hear and I have driven it) They should have built more lanes or something.

That may not be novel.


Offline mads

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #20 on: March 29, 2019, 04:34:06 PM »
Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

Is it really urban living though?  :P

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #21 on: March 29, 2019, 04:34:22 PM »
Yep just look at the interest list on Novel Park. According to William Lyon's Q4 call they said they had 4500 people on the list. The price point is ultra attractive with everything under $800k.

Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

That toll road is like getting congested. (That’s what I hear and I have driven it) They should have built more lanes or something.

That may not be novel.

I don’t know. (just saying)

Offline Mety

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #22 on: March 29, 2019, 04:59:04 PM »
Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

Is it really urban living though?  :P

Well, depends how you look at it.

Having Novel Park homes definitely will sound buffer for other GP homes.

On a positive notes, these NP are kind of like CPW homes but with IUSD so kids can enjoy Irvine schools.


Offline mads

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #23 on: March 29, 2019, 05:08:33 PM »
On a positive notes, these NP are kind of like CPW homes but with IUSD so kids can enjoy Irvine schools.
Agree, i guess its only the lux townhomes near CPW, thats IUSD and new built.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2019, 08:30:17 AM »
Pretty much everything we looked at had dropped 10% or more. I posted these in another thread but here it is again. There are exact same model same floor plan and same sqft. (Marigold plan 3 in Cypress Village)

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/60-Rockcress-92618/home/112722299

Sold for 930k in 2019.

This very same plan 3 was closing at 1.05 mil and 1.06 mil in 2018.

This one sold for 1.05 mil
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/74-Scented-Violet-92620/home/58557049

This one sold for 1.068 mil
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/55-Hanging-Gdn-92618/home/112719945

Okay, finally had time to look at these listings.

I think this is a bit misleading. There is a location premium you are not mentioning here. The Rockcress property is closer to Sand Canyon whereas the other 2 listings are interior locations.

Also, while this may be subjective, both Hanging Garden and Scented Violet have nicer upgrades based on the pictures (the backyard of Hanging Garden is best).

I tried to look at sold prices on other listings in this area but I'm not very familiar with Cypress Village Marigold tracts so not sure where others just like this Plan 3 are located to get a bigger sample size.

Quote
The ones we made offers in Quail Hill also dropped 10% or more. The home we are about to close is still listed above 950k asking price and we will close for just above 870k. I think you will see more and more of these lowered sales comp soon.

So I'm more familiar with Quail Hill so I would like to see what you are talking about here because it may be the same type of differences that are reflective of location/upgrades rather than apple-to-apples discounts.

And as I've said in other threads, 5-10% is not that significant if you are looking at a 5-10 year stay, are shopping the $1m+ range and are financing. On one of our homes we saved 10% sacrificing location and looking back, it wasn't worth it. We actually might still be in that area today if we picked a more expensive home with a better location.
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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #25 on: April 01, 2019, 08:37:22 AM »
Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

Is it really urban living though?  :P

Well, depends how you look at it.

Having Novel Park homes definitely will sound buffer for other GP homes.

On a positive notes, these NP are kind of like CPW homes but with IUSD so kids can enjoy Irvine schools.

Don’t discount it too much. If they play their cards right, the kid might be top of their class for the school assigned to cpw.

Offline Kenkoko

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #26 on: April 01, 2019, 09:47:59 AM »
IHO,

Having actually toured all 3 properties personally, I would agree locations were a factor and the backyard of Hanging Garden was the best of those 3. But the price difference was a whopping 13%. The backyard difference was so minimal in terms of cost to fix it up ( no more than a few thousand bucks)
The location difference to us, in terms of price,  would be no more than a couple percentage as the home was not right on Sand Canyon just closed to.

You called my post misleading but I never claimed the homes were exactly the same. I only said they were the same model, same floor plan, and same SQFT. I think you blaming the 13% price difference on location/backyard (and doing so by looking at a few online photos) instead of how much the market had changed is misleading.

To your 2nd point " if you are looking at a 5-10 year stay...."

You can make almost anything bend in your favor if you tweak the premise of the discussion enough. I can easily say if you are looking at a 3-5 year stay and the 10% price difference will feel gigantic.

This would not have been the first time I disagree with you on using 5-10 year as a default. Simply because of the fact that newest studies have shown people changed homes every 5 years. Also personally, I never had a primary home for more than 4 years (before selling or turning it into a rental)

I mentioned this in my posts when we had similar discussions. People are moving more and more often.  The home price difference plus the 6% transaction cost will become bigger and bigger factors. The old thinking of focusing on 20/30 years long term simply does not apply to how people live today.
 

Offline Mety

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #27 on: April 01, 2019, 10:20:11 AM »
Yeah, it's got the ultra attractive view of the Toll Road 133 as well. What a modern urban life.

Is it really urban living though?  :P

Well, depends how you look at it.

Having Novel Park homes definitely will sound buffer for other GP homes.

On a positive notes, these NP are kind of like CPW homes but with IUSD so kids can enjoy Irvine schools.

Don’t discount it too much. If they play their cards right, the kid might be top of their class for the school assigned to cpw.

I actually like some of CPW homes.
I would have bought one if they didn't have ridiculous HOAs.

Offline irvinehomeowner

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #28 on: April 01, 2019, 10:47:53 AM »
IHO,

Having actually toured all 3 properties personally, I would agree locations were a factor and the backyard of Hanging Garden was the best of those 3. But the price difference was a whopping 13%. The backyard difference was so minimal in terms of cost to fix it up ( no more than a few thousand bucks)
The location difference to us, in terms of price,  would be no more than a couple percentage as the home was not right on Sand Canyon just closed to.

You called my post misleading but I never claimed the homes were exactly the same. I only said they were the same model, same floor plan, and same SQFT. I think you blaming the 13% price difference on location/backyard (and doing so by looking at a few online photos) instead of how much the market had changed is misleading.

I actually said a "bit" misleading. Just like you called out my "amazing" prices in Woodbridge, I should be allowed to point out some flaws in your example.

And again, this *is* based on my premise because that was my original reasoning on whether or not you should wait (which we've discussed in other threads).

For you, that "whopping" 13% is significant to wait... for me (and again... my opinion, not everyone else's), especially after buying a house next to a busy road, that 13% is **not** worth it.

And I'm not trying to be misleading, that's why I asked for a larger sample size than just 3 homes, that's also why this thread exists. You got upset at the other poster when he posted singular examples of Woodbridge pricing and it wasn't until I showed you the data from Redfin comparing each of the neighborhoods that you saw what I was saying... I'm just asking for reciprocity.

Quote
To your 2nd point " if you are looking at a 5-10 year stay...."

You can make almost anything bend in your favor if you tweak the premise of the discussion enough. I can easily say if you are looking at a 3-5 year stay and the 10% price difference will feel gigantic.

This would not have been the first time I disagree with you on using 5-10 year as a default. Simply because of the fact that newest studies have shown people changed homes every 5 years. Also personally, I never had a primary home for more than 4 years (before selling or turning it into a rental)

I mentioned this in my posts when we had similar discussions. People are moving more and more often.  The home price difference plus the 6% transaction cost will become bigger and bigger factors. The old thinking of focusing on 20/30 years long term simply does not apply to how people live today.

For this price range, $1m+ (the same range as in the poll), you may find the move-up time greater than 5 years. I **also** have usually moved less than 5 years except for our last home (and the one before that would have been longer too if not for the bad location), so I think that's a push.

Again, my viewpoint is if you are planning to stay longer than 5 years, price differences may not be the top factor when buying.

You always bring up the 6% transaction cost as a loss if you have to sell, but isn't that more of a reason to stay than to move? To purchase a home that you want to stay in for over 5 years and that is in a good location?

And again, I speak from hindsight... I felt like most of you before, always trying to time a price drop so that I could save even just 5%. In the end, what mattered most if getting the right house for a price I could afford. We paid much more for our current home than we wanted to (a whopping 20% more!), but this is by far the best home we have lived in.

I hope the one you are closing on is what you were looking for.
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Offline Mety

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Re: Examples of significant savings?
« Reply #29 on: April 01, 2019, 11:05:22 AM »
6%???  Man, that's some old school right there.
Use Redfin and pay 1-1.5% listing fees.


It's interesting most people no matter where they live, they tend to love where they are currently at especially if you are the home owner. I haven't really seen anyone who would say,
"Man, I live in PS and I hate it here."

They all tend to say,
"I love it here cuz it's so much more chill and far away from than any other Irvine areas."

But then you move out and say,
"I used to live in PS and I hated every moment of it for it was too far from everything."
"I used to live in GP and boy those MR was killing me."
"I used to live in EW and I forgot I was in U.S."

We all love where we are now, but not so much love for the previous one. So my question is do you still think you would say it was the best home even after you move to somewhere else?


 

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