Chief financial officers and even average U.S. citizens have been bracing themselves for a recession, either this year or next.
http://fortune.com/2019/03/19/economic-growth-slowdown/
http://fortune.com/2019/03/19/economic-growth-slowdown/
https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/22/investing/dow-stock-market-yield-curve/index.htmlNew York (CNN Business)The Dow fell 460 points Friday after a US recession indicator blinked red and a report on German manufacturing raised concerns about Europe's most important economy.
The index shed 1.8%, while the S&P 500 closed down 1.9%. The Nasdaq plunged 2.5%. It was the worst performance for all three major indexes since January 3.
The yield on 3-month Treasuries rose above the rate on 10-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007 ? a shift that scared Wall Street. Investors have piled back into stocks after a sell-off in late 2018.
Kenkoko said:I wouldn't necessary look to the past to predict the future this time. What we will be facing in the next 5-10 years will be completely different from the past.
Massive adoptions of AI and automation will cause massive disruptions in the US and global economy.
For those who don't beleive this is coming, I recommend watching the video (easily found on youtube) on Goggle's new AI Assistant. It's scary close to being able to replace the 2.5 million humans currently working at call centers across the US. Self driving cars and trucks will replace millions of human drivers.
Projections varies but McKinsey report from last year said that 400 million to 800 million jobs worldwide would be automated by 2030.
Part of US, like silicon valley, will obviously thrive and other parts of US will struggle mightily.
USCTrojanCPA said:Many call centers are outsourced to India and Asia already so that won't be a big blow, but I can see how AI is negatively effect many other jobs in the future. I think having a STEM background/education will serve people very well in the future.
nosuchreality said:JIMHO, most pros are really missing the boat and underestimating the on the level of white collar worker that is going to get smacked by AI/Automation.
Kenkoko said:nosuchreality said:JIMHO, most pros are really missing the boat and underestimating the on the level of white collar worker that is going to get smacked by AI/Automation.
Definitely agree with that.
And most regular people are still either unaware or still in denial.
I am in healthcare and AI assisted software ownership brought in late 2017 has already trimmed our back office staff by about 30%. It's only going to get worse.
Radiology is another obvious thing. AI can see shades of gray on a film that a human eye cannot. AI can reference millions of films where an expert Radiologist can probably reference thousands.
irvinehomeowner said:Automation only goes so far. There is a point, no matter what industry, where human interaction is necessary and not easily replaced.
irvinehomeowner said:Society will adapt
Kenkoko said:irvinehomeowner said:Automation only goes so far. There is a point, no matter what industry, where human interaction is necessary and not easily replaced.
This is the most common response to the coming threats of automation and AI. You are right but also dead wrong.
You are right that humans will not be completely replaced. But that was never the goal anyway. The goal was to replace most humans at least at the beginning.
Take truck driving for example. Many truck drivers are still in denial that robot drivers can and will take their jobs. The common belief is that there is no way a robot can do what they do, making thousands of decisions on the road. But what they are missing is that Robots don't have to.
Most of the driving from east coast to west coast passes through sparsely populated area. Robot driving between western Pennsylvania and Nevada would only need to make very few decisions on the interstate. From there human drivers will get in and take it rest of the way as Robots are not ready to drive in urban populated areas.
This will not replace all of the 3.5 million truck drivers in the USA. But will cause massive disruption in the industry and destroy millions of jobs.
irvinehomeowner said:Society will adapt
This is also a common response but also not very true. If you look at what happened to the manufacturing workers in the mid west who lost their jobs to automation. Half of them never worked again. Of that group, half filed for disability. Suicides spiked.
94% truck drivers are male, average age 49 with a high school degree. What exactly are you expecting them to adapt to? are they really going to move to silicon valley and become app developers?
eyephone said:Yup. Also, another example the self serve kiosk at Mc Donald?s and Walmart. How about the Amazon store without no cashier. It?s so automated that it has sensors and cameras equipped with AI technology.
There?s even speed cameras that issues tickets for people going over the speed limit. (not in California) A person can argue this potentially might take away jobs from the police department.
qwerty said:They will adapt by going on unemployment and us paying even more taxes to support all of them.